CIPA shipment details for last year - down it goes

beholder3 · 02-04-2020, 06:12 AM - **1 Like**

It really seems the makers have not yet seen rock bottom.

The really sharp drop in DSLM sales with a continued erosion of DSLM prices probably will not make them happy.

But then: January data usually is even worse than December. So more bad news for the sellers to come. On the good (buyer) side this makes further price drops for last years toys even more probable.

Attached Images

normhead · 02-04-2020, 06:35 AM

That looks absolutely dismal.

**UncleVanya** · 02-04-2020, 08:35 AM

What is DSLM is that the mirrorless systems?

beholder3 · 02-04-2020, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by UncleVanya

What is DSLM is that the mirrorless systems?

yes DSLM is mirrorless toys.

KiloHotelphoto · 02-04-2020, 10:45 AM - **2 Likes**

I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am.

Pentax has the APS-C flagship rumored, Canon has a few mirrorless bodies rumored to be released this year, I’m waiting on the RS one. Nikon will have a D6 out Fuji the xt 4. I think if these bodies come out the manufacturers will have a better year in 2020 than in 2019.

Nobody wants to spend money on something that is about to be improved on and some people are waiting on the new releases to drop the price on older bodies.

**acoufap** · 02-04-2020, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto

I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am.

Pentax has the APS-C flagship rumored, Canon has a few mirrorless bodies rumored to be released this year, I’m waiting on the RS one. Nikon will have a D6 out Fuji the xt 4. I think if these bodies come out the manufacturers will have a better year in 2020 than in 2019.

Nobody wants to spend money on something that is about to be improved on and some people are waiting on the new releases to drop the price on older bodies.

... and some are just waiting for new wide angle prime lenses and TCs.

**luftfluss** · 02-04-2020, 11:36 AM

Glad I'm OK with what I have.

beholder3 · 02-05-2020, 07:07 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto

I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am.

I do not think that is a valid excuse for more and more photographers turning away from current DSLM/DSLR products.

There always have been people waiting for the next big thing and then the next and the one after that. That peaked in 2011.

Actually - as there hasn't been any meaningful major innovation in any cameras for many years now - it seems more likely that it is less and less people who give a monkey's about the next product.

Their current cameras are more than capable enough and their smartphones with cameras already are there as well.

**ffking** · 02-05-2020, 07:30 AM

Shock news! - mirrorless sales are falling faster than DSLR sales!!

normhead · 02-05-2020, 07:45 AM

Tess' K-5 is still everything she wants. I'm sure there are a lot of folks in her position.

KiloHotelphoto · 02-05-2020, 06:56 PM

Originally posted by beholder3

I do not think that is a valid excuse for more and more photographers turning away from current DSLM/DSLR products.

There always have been people waiting for the next big thing and then the next and the one after that. That peaked in 2011.

Actually - as there hasn't been any meaningful major innovation in any cameras for many years now - it seems more likely that it is less and less people who give a monkey's about the next product.

Their current cameras are more than capable enough and their smartphones with cameras already are there as well.

I think Canon and Nikon entering the mirror less world with all new mounts is a pretty big innovation, well maybe not innovation but a huge change. They have such a large user base I think people are waiting to see what they are coming out with before making any purchases that they don't need right away.

I know I'm not adding anymore EF lenses because I know the RF is the future. The adapter works just fine but I would rather invest into the future mount with my next big purchase.

**Rondec** · 02-06-2020, 03:59 AM

Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto

I think Canon and Nikon entering the mirror less world with all new mounts is a pretty big innovation, well maybe not innovation but a huge change. They have such a large user base I think people are waiting to see what they are coming out with before making any purchases that they don't need right away.

I know I'm not adding anymore EF lenses because I know the RF is the future. The adapter works just fine but I would rather invest into the future mount with my next big purchase.

RF may be the future and Canon may be in the process of ditching the EOS mount, but the cost of the RF lenses seems a lot higher than EOS lenses. Maybe that's the point, but you can get a 24-70 f2.8 USM II on B and H for 1600 (and used for 1200) and the RF 24-70 f2.8 is 2300 (oddly the same price as the 28-70 f2). Anyway, just looking at the price difference, even if I went with a new MILC mount, I would continue to use my old lenses with an adapter until the prices came down quite a bit.

normhead · 02-06-2020, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto

I know I'm not adding anymore EF lenses because I know the RF is the future. The adapter works just fine but I would rather invest into the future mount with my next big purchase.

Given the downturn in the camera market happening when these cameras were released, it's interesting to speculate if these cameras will ever meet their target sales specs.

KiloHotelphoto · 02-06-2020, 01:11 PM

The RF lenses are more expensive than the EF mount but that was expected. I will definitely not be replacing my EF 600/4 with a RF mount whenever it comes out, the adapter will work just fine. I’ve been looking at the EF 400/2.8 and 200-400/4 with built in tc but would rather wait for newer RF mount versions. I know the adapter works seamlessly but if I’m dumping another $10k on a lens I would rather it be in the RF mount.

Canon did say the R and RP sales numbers weren’t what they were hoping but they also admitted they are behind in features. They do have a few rumored for this year that sound much better but we all know rumors are pretty much worthless.

Nikon sales numbers probably were lower than they wanted also but I haven’t followed their news as much.

I still think 2020 could be a better year for the camera body sales, not anything close to the peak years but I think sales will be up.

**Rondec** · 02-06-2020, 01:38 PM

Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto

The RF lenses are more expensive than the EF mount but that was expected. I will definitely not be replacing my EF 600/4 with a RF mount whenever it comes out, the adapter will work just fine. I’ve been looking at the EF 400/2.8 and 200-400/4 with built in tc but would rather wait for newer RF mount versions. I know the adapter works seamlessly but if I’m dumping another $10k on a lens I would rather it be in the RF mount.

Canon did say the R and RP sales numbers weren’t what they were hoping but they also admitted they are behind in features. They do have a few rumored for this year that sound much better but we all know rumors are pretty much worthless.

Nikon sales numbers probably were lower than they wanted also but I haven’t followed their news as much.

I still think 2020 could be a better year for the camera body sales, not anything close to the peak years but I think sales will be up.

The interesting thing would be to compare like to like. So, for instance, to compare first six months of Z6 sales to first six months of the soon to be release D780. My guess is they'd actually be pretty similar, although the price on the Z6 has fallen a bunch, probably indicating dismal sales.

02-04-2020, 06:12 AM - 1 Like	#1
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112	CIPA shipment details for last year - down it goes It really seems the makers have not yet seen rock bottom. The really sharp drop in DSLM sales with a continued erosion of DSLM prices probably will not make them happy. But then: January data usually is even worse than December. So more bad news for the sellers to come. On the good (buyer) side this makes further price drops for last years toys even more probable. Attached Images

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02-04-2020, 06:35 AM	#2
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	That looks absolutely dismal.

02-04-2020, 08:35 AM	#3
UncleVanya Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Jul 2014 Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 28,459	What is DSLM is that the mirrorless systems?

02-04-2020, 09:49 AM	#4
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112 Original Poster	Originally posted by UncleVanya What is DSLM is that the mirrorless systems? yes DSLM is mirrorless toys.

02-04-2020, 10:45 AM - 2 Likes	#5
KiloHotelphoto Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Glen Mills, PA Photos: Albums Posts: 1,030	I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am. Pentax has the APS-C flagship rumored, Canon has a few mirrorless bodies rumored to be released this year, I’m waiting on the RS one. Nikon will have a D6 out Fuji the xt 4. I think if these bodies come out the manufacturers will have a better year in 2020 than in 2019. Nobody wants to spend money on something that is about to be improved on and some people are waiting on the new releases to drop the price on older bodies.

02-04-2020, 11:35 AM	#6
acoufap Site Supporter Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: Munich, Germany Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 4,191	Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am. Pentax has the APS-C flagship rumored, Canon has a few mirrorless bodies rumored to be released this year, I’m waiting on the RS one. Nikon will have a D6 out Fuji the xt 4. I think if these bodies come out the manufacturers will have a better year in 2020 than in 2019. Nobody wants to spend money on something that is about to be improved on and some people are waiting on the new releases to drop the price on older bodies. ... and some are just waiting for new wide angle prime lenses and TCs.

02-04-2020, 11:36 AM	#7
luftfluss Site Supporter Join Date: Jun 2011 Location: NJ Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 11,627	Glad I'm OK with what I have.

02-05-2020, 07:07 AM - 1 Like	#8
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112 Original Poster	Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto I think lots of people are waiting on rumored products right now, I know I am. I do not think that is a valid excuse for more and more photographers turning away from current DSLM/DSLR products. There always have been people waiting for the next big thing and then the next and the one after that. That peaked in 2011. Actually - as there hasn't been any meaningful major innovation in any cameras for many years now - it seems more likely that it is less and less people who give a monkey's about the next product. Their current cameras are more than capable enough and their smartphones with cameras already are there as well.

02-05-2020, 07:30 AM	#9
ffking Site Supporter Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Old South Wales Posts: 6,039	Shock news! - mirrorless sales are falling faster than DSLR sales!!

02-05-2020, 07:45 AM	#10
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	Tess' K-5 is still everything she wants. I'm sure there are a lot of folks in her position.

02-05-2020, 06:56 PM	#11
KiloHotelphoto Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Glen Mills, PA Photos: Albums Posts: 1,030	Originally posted by beholder3 I do not think that is a valid excuse for more and more photographers turning away from current DSLM/DSLR products. There always have been people waiting for the next big thing and then the next and the one after that. That peaked in 2011. Actually - as there hasn't been any meaningful major innovation in any cameras for many years now - it seems more likely that it is less and less people who give a monkey's about the next product. Their current cameras are more than capable enough and their smartphones with cameras already are there as well. I think Canon and Nikon entering the mirror less world with all new mounts is a pretty big innovation, well maybe not innovation but a huge change. They have such a large user base I think people are waiting to see what they are coming out with before making any purchases that they don't need right away. I know I'm not adding anymore EF lenses because I know the RF is the future. The adapter works just fine but I would rather invest into the future mount with my next big purchase.

02-06-2020, 03:59 AM	#12
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,663	Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto I think Canon and Nikon entering the mirror less world with all new mounts is a pretty big innovation, well maybe not innovation but a huge change. They have such a large user base I think people are waiting to see what they are coming out with before making any purchases that they don't need right away. I know I'm not adding anymore EF lenses because I know the RF is the future. The adapter works just fine but I would rather invest into the future mount with my next big purchase. RF may be the future and Canon may be in the process of ditching the EOS mount, but the cost of the RF lenses seems a lot higher than EOS lenses. Maybe that's the point, but you can get a 24-70 f2.8 USM II on B and H for 1600 (and used for 1200) and the RF 24-70 f2.8 is 2300 (oddly the same price as the 28-70 f2). Anyway, just looking at the price difference, even if I went with a new MILC mount, I would continue to use my old lenses with an adapter until the prices came down quite a bit.

02-06-2020, 07:20 AM	#13
normhead Pentaxian Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Near Algonquin Park Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 40,451	Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto I know I'm not adding anymore EF lenses because I know the RF is the future. The adapter works just fine but I would rather invest into the future mount with my next big purchase. Given the downturn in the camera market happening when these cameras were released, it's interesting to speculate if these cameras will ever meet their target sales specs.

02-06-2020, 01:11 PM	#14
KiloHotelphoto Pentaxian Join Date: Jan 2015 Location: Glen Mills, PA Photos: Albums Posts: 1,030	The RF lenses are more expensive than the EF mount but that was expected. I will definitely not be replacing my EF 600/4 with a RF mount whenever it comes out, the adapter will work just fine. I’ve been looking at the EF 400/2.8 and 200-400/4 with built in tc but would rather wait for newer RF mount versions. I know the adapter works seamlessly but if I’m dumping another $10k on a lens I would rather it be in the RF mount. Canon did say the R and RP sales numbers weren’t what they were hoping but they also admitted they are behind in features. They do have a few rumored for this year that sound much better but we all know rumors are pretty much worthless. Nikon sales numbers probably were lower than they wanted also but I haven’t followed their news as much. I still think 2020 could be a better year for the camera body sales, not anything close to the peak years but I think sales will be up.

02-06-2020, 01:38 PM	#15
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,663	Originally posted by KiloHotelphoto The RF lenses are more expensive than the EF mount but that was expected. I will definitely not be replacing my EF 600/4 with a RF mount whenever it comes out, the adapter will work just fine. I’ve been looking at the EF 400/2.8 and 200-400/4 with built in tc but would rather wait for newer RF mount versions. I know the adapter works seamlessly but if I’m dumping another $10k on a lens I would rather it be in the RF mount. Canon did say the R and RP sales numbers weren’t what they were hoping but they also admitted they are behind in features. They do have a few rumored for this year that sound much better but we all know rumors are pretty much worthless. Nikon sales numbers probably were lower than they wanted also but I haven’t followed their news as much. I still think 2020 could be a better year for the camera body sales, not anything close to the peak years but I think sales will be up. The interesting thing would be to compare like to like. So, for instance, to compare first six months of Z6 sales to first six months of the soon to be release D780. My guess is they'd actually be pretty similar, although the price on the Z6 has fallen a bunch, probably indicating dismal sales.