[BigMackCam]

You've forgotten the whiskey, red wine and beer, how are you going to survive then?

These are what I like to call "essential items". I had wine and beer in stock even before I topped up my water supplies

That's very serious, for one time and media hype is useful and necessary. Uncontrolled propagation can be exponential , and with a death rate of 2%, it very serious.

According to yesterday's World Health Organisation report, there have been 82294 confirmed cases globally, 2747 deaths in China and 57 elsewhere - so, currently, mortality rate is actually around 3.4%. Serious indeed.

Last time I've been at the physician, there were 40 people queuing, so I left, first I didn't want to wait, and second having 40 people waiting in a room can be a disaster in case someone is contaminated by the virus, that's the fastest way to propagate that thing.

I'd have left too.

I just got back from the grocery store where one of the check-out girls was sniffing and coughing. It was almost certainly just a common cold or other minor bug she was suffering from, but still I went to a different check-out

[biz-engineer]

Exactly this. Do not go to the hospital or emergency rooms, if you absolute don't have to. Crowded waiting rooms have so far been the main reason why the infection spread so fast

Sure. And basically everything that pumps and blows air: airplanes, trains, buses. In the past I often get sick after a flight because some people people sneeze, the air is pumped and generously redistributed everywhere in the aircraft.

[PJ1]

there have been 82294 confirmed cases globally, 2747 deaths in China and 57 elsewhere

I have been tracking this. There seem to be six updates per week (none on Sunday): Coronavirus cases top 80,000 worldwide: Live updates on COVID-19 | Live Science

Typically, deaths lag infections by about six weeks. In early February it was averaging about 50 deaths per day. Then it started to climb steeply until it peaked around 250-300 in mid-February. Since then it has declined to about the 50 per day mark again. I think the figures indicate how well China did in getting it under control there.

If you want to check the fatality risk by age, that info is here: Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Older people are at much greater risk possibly because in many cases their health is already compromised.

The problem will explode if/when a country fails or is unable to implement effective controls. I think that is what the main concern is now.

[aslyfox]

one in Oregon

Live updates: Oregon coronavirus infection makes three cases of unknown origin in U.S.

Breaking: Coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in Oregon, indicating virus is spreading

Oregon health officials on Friday reported a coronavirus case of unknown origin. The patient is from Washington County, with no known history of travel to places hit hard by the outbreak, and no contact with a known case of the virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/

second case of coronavirus confirmed in California

no known connection to those brought into the US with known infection

A 65-year-old resident of Santa Clara County, Calif., who has no known history of travel to countries hit hard by the outbreak, has tested positive for coronavirus, people familiar with the case said Friday.

There is no known connection between the new patient and anyone else diagnosed with the disease, known as covid-19. On Wednesday, health authorities revealed the nation’s first case of community transmission, a woman in Solano County, about 90 miles away. . . .

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/02/28/coronavirus-live-updates/

__________________________

I have the coronavirus. So far, it isn’t that bad.
My treatment has largely consisted of drinking gallons and gallons of Gatorade

By Carl Goldman
Carl Goldman is the owner of KHTS radio in Santa Clarita, California.

. . . It’s surreal to see everyone panic — news conferences, the stock market falling, school closures — about a disease I have. It does seem likely that coronavirus will spread in the U.S., but it won’t help anybody if we all panic. Based on my experience, I’d recommend that everyone get a good digital thermometer, just as a comfort tool, so they can reassure themselves if their noses start running. I have been relatively fortunate: At least six Diamond Princess passengers have died from the virus, of the around 705 passengers who caught it. But coronavirus doesn’t have to be a horrible calamity.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/02/28/i-have-coronavirus-so-far-it-isnt-that-bad/

---

Last edited by aslyfox; 02-28-2020 at 07:35 PM.

[MarkJerling]

First case confirmed in New Zealand. Panic buying of groceries has already started.

[aslyfox]

it is beginning to spread in the US -

California reported its second case of community transmission of the coronavirus Friday, and Oregon and Washington announced others just hours later, providing fresh evidence that the deadly virus is circulating in the United States.

Authorities in Santa Clara County, Calif., said a 65-year-old woman had come down with the covid-19 disease without traveling to any countries hit hard by the outbreak or coming in contact with anyone known to have the infection.

In Oregon, officials said a person from Washington County, in the northwest part of the state, had tested positive under similar circumstances. The positive test was conducted by the state’s laboratory and is considered “presumptive” until it is confirmed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The unnamed Oregon individual spent time in an elementary school outside Portland and may have exposed students and staff there, state health authorities said. The school was ordered closed through Wednesday for cleaning, a local television station reported.

In Washington, state health officials said a high school student in Snohomish County, just north of Seattle, received a “presumptive” positive test in another case of unknown origin. The Jackson High School student was not in school most of this week, but was on campus briefly Friday morning, according to a statement from Everett Public Schools. Students who were in contact with the patient will remain home for 14 days while health authorities monitor their symptoms, and the school will close for three days, the school district said.

The developments mean the virus is spreading in at least four separate communities — two of them about 90 miles apart in California, and two others farther up the West Coast. On Wednesday, authorities revealed the nation’s first case of community transmission, a woman in Solano County, Calif . . ..

Second case of coronavirus in Northern California: A 65-year-old woman with no known travel to an affected country is confirmed - The Washington Post

[Rondec]

I think there are a couple of things. First of all, it is pretty clear that the majority of people who get this virus actually have very mild symptoms. This allows for unidentified transmission of the virus (which is of course a negative). It is also perhaps a positive in that it means that the quoted mortality rates are not nearly as high as first reported. Most people with mild cases just think they have a cold and don't get tested -- it is only the sickest people who get tested and of those very sickest people about 2 percent succumb to the illness. The mortality rate outside of Wuhan province, in China, is about 0.7 percent, which is a lot better. The concerning thing, of course is that if you don't have symptoms but are still contagious, it is going to be difficult to stop the spread of this virus.

Anyway, the way I am reading it now, this is like a more virulent influenza, certainly more deadly, but not as much as first reports indicated. But probably not going to be easily contained either.

---

Last edited by Rondec; 02-29-2020 at 03:54 AM.

[brewmaster15]

Not to pour gas on a fire already but theres a fact thats not really being talked about at this point. This strain of Corona virus is "new" to us, but Corona viruses are not something new. Theres probably a very good chance this one jumped species (bats at live markets is suspect by some sources.) The problem with a pandemic virus is it mutates. Its why you need a flu vaccine every year. The flu virus mutates and a new vaccine is needed.Each years vaccines are based on up and coming varients identified.

I doubt that at this stage of the game they have any idea what this virus can do. If it jumped from one species of mammal (bats) to humans thats probably a very worrying variable. Its highly likely that virus could mutate into something worse, Im hoping it mutates into something less virulent. Luckily we have a good understanding of the flu virus and have technology in place to turn out vaccines.. but going forward if Corona virus mutates, it could really make containment and treatment hard. Its been a long time since humans faced something like a pandemic virus
Like influenza.

[aslyfox]

Not to pour gas on a fire already but theres a fact thats not really being talked about at this point. This strain of Corona virus is "new" to us, but Corona viruses are not something new. Theres probably a very good chance this one jumped species (bats at live markets is suspect by some sources.) The problem with a pandemic virus is it mutates. Its why you need a flu vaccine every year. The flu virus mutates and a new vaccine is needed.Each years vaccines are based on up and coming varients identified. . . . Its been a long time since humans faced something like a pandemic virus
Like influenza.

and the flu vaccine designed on last years flu may not be effective on all the newly mutated flu virus

the socalled Spanish flu pandemic perhaps

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919. In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918. It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States.

1918 Pandemic (H1N1 virus) | Pandemic Influenza (Flu) | CDC

[Rondec]

Not to pour gas on a fire already but theres a fact thats not really being talked about at this point. This strain of Corona virus is "new" to us, but Corona viruses are not something new. Theres probably a very good chance this one jumped species (bats at live markets is suspect by some sources.) The problem with a pandemic virus is it mutates. Its why you need a flu vaccine every year. The flu virus mutates and a new vaccine is needed.Each years vaccines are based on up and coming varients identified.

I doubt that at this stage of the game they have any idea what this virus can do. If it jumped from one species of mammal (bats) to humans thats probably a very worrying variable. Its highly likely that virus could mutate into something worse, Im hoping it mutates into something less virulent. Luckily we have a good understanding of the flu virus and have technology in place to turn out vaccines.. but going forward if Corona virus mutates, it could really make containment and treatment hard. Its been a long time since humans faced something like a pandemic virus
Like influenza.

It is new, but the reality is that from childhood our immune systems are presented with "new" viruses and bacteria to deal with on a constant basis (not new to the human species, just new to us personally). Fortunately, our immune systems are for the most part up to the challenge and they deal with these germs without too much problem. The issue in this case is not really the novelty of the virus, it is the apparent virulence of the virus. As I said before, I think the early reports of it have overstated its virulence, but it certainly is something to take seriously.

At the same time, I do think headline writers have a tendency to really whip up public angst about anything like this and moderate, well informed views tend to take a back seat to terror.

[brewmaster15]

It is new, but the reality is that from childhood our immune systems are presented with "new" viruses and bacteria to deal with on a constant basis (not new to the human species, just new to us personally). Fortunately, our immune systems are for the most part up to the challenge and they deal with these germs without too much problem. The issue in this case is not really the novelty of the virus, it is the apparent virulence of the virus. As I said before, I think the early reports of it have overstated its virulence, but it certainly is something to take seriously.

At the same time, I do think headline writers have a tendency to really whip up public angst about anything like this and moderate, well informed views tend to take a back seat to terror.

Absolutely.. sensationism sells news.. even in todays digital arena.

[aslyfox]

Absolutely.. sensationism sells news.. even in todays digital arena.

" dog bites man " who cares

" man bites dog " now that could be a story

[ excluding hot dog eating contests ]

[aslyfox]

latest info from reliable source IMHO

. . . health officials in Washington state confirmed that a person diagnosed with coronavirus in King County has died. . . . Jeffrey Duchin, chief health officer for Seattle and King County, later clarified that the patient was a man in his 50s with underlying conditions. . . .

Here are the latest developments:

The three new cases announced Saturday in Washington state bring the total number of infections contracted in the United States to 22, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Forty-seven other people who have been repatriated to the United States from Wuhan, China, and from the Diamond Princess cruise ship also have the virus.
The newly announced cases included the first possible outbreak in a long-term nursing facility. Health officials have said older people and adults in poor health face the highest risk from the virus. . . .

Coronavirus live updates: First U.S. death confirmed in Washington state, new travel restrictions for Iran, Italy and South Korea - The Washington Post

[aslyfox]

First coronavirus death in U.S. and new cases detected as testing expands

Feb. 29, 2020 at 8:11 p.m. CST
A man in his 50s with an underlying health condition became the first person in the United States to die of coronavirus infection. President Trump announced new travel restrictions Saturday, and health officials scrambled to increase testing nationwide even as they tried to tamp down public fears.

Along with the fatality in Washington state, health officials in the Seattle area confirmed two additional cases of the covid-19 disease and a possible outbreak at a long-term nursing facility — raising alarm because the elderly and sick are among those most vulnerable to the virus. Officials in California’s Santa Clara County announced another case Saturday, and Illinois announced another case Saturday evening.

The new cases bring the number of people apparently infected by community spread of the disease to nine. They have no travel history to regions hit by the virus or encounters with people known to have the disease.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/first-us-coronavirus-death-prompts-new...470_story.html

[repaap]

It is spreading everywhere. Young people can be even with out symptons which make them quite good for carrying the virus to elder people at home. It can take several days untill one can feel the fever and all, so when cases are coming up, it most sertainly has been going around for a while.

Our doctors now are saying, that keep calm and wash you hands. Be aware of normal seasona flu and influens virus. That is still as dangerous for elder people(and people with astma or similar weaknesess as this new thing is. Breathing masks are not as efficient as washing your hands often and properly with soap, and try to not to touch your face when you are out and about. Because that is where it actually goes in, from your hand to your system.


Keep safe guys!