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04-03-2020, 05:22 AM - 1 Like   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by WorksAsIntended Quote
The amount of money does not matter if it is not liquid.
The money is necessary to prevent insolvency where the cash is not free.
Of course inflation is a bad aftermath in this case, but the is no other option imho.
I own a house with two shops in it. Both are not able to pay the rent now. I won't insist on it at this situation and therefore postpone some work that I wanted to have done at the building instead which is not necessary. If they owe money to their supplier they are doomed, although their stuff they own would be easily enough to pay for it. Liquidity is all that matters. So we need easy credits right now and for the banks to give it we need central banks to enable it.
This will not prevent all damage to economy, but still is necessary.

Well, the cash is these days almost free. In some EU countries (or CH) there are even negative interest rates (so you have to pay to your bank in which you deposit your money). Crazy, isn't it?

The only right and correct way is... savings. But that's not popular, right? Politics tend to ask us for more money every year, not less.

But as mentioned, the commercial banks are full of cash. Why not (instead of quantitative easing or helicopter money) to give state guarantees to the banks, so that they are not afraid to give people/companies needed loans to bridge this period?

04-03-2020, 08:03 AM   #17
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I don't see much advantage to mirrorless cameras until CMOS sensors are full designed for mirrorless, continuously capturing images at a quick frame rate. Then, obviously, faster sensor readout open up more functionalities, such as in camera stacking, video recording , slow motion. But so far, most mirrorless models use sensors that were designed for DSLR, performance is not (not yet) revolutionary. In medium format, the mirrorless versions of the 645z are not that impressive with their contrast detect AF, about as slow as focusing in live view. Bodies are smaller , but autofocus on those cameras is far from impressive. When mirrorless models will have sensors capturing 50 images per second, then mirrorless will be a game changer.
04-03-2020, 10:09 AM - 1 Like   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
I don't see much advantage to mirrorless cameras until CMOS sensors are full designed for mirrorless, continuously capturing images at a quick frame rate.
SmartPhones drive the largest volume of image sensors (millions of sensors sold per month), and that has an impact, which propagates to the other larger sensors.


I see where you're going with this, and although I agree with your point that quick frame rate will give new capabilities, there's other things going on here that I have a slightly different perspective on it.
In my experience, Mirrorless vs DSLR isn't so much considered in sensor design; the shutter operation is a factor - electromechanical and/or electronic global shutter or rolling shutter. But this has been around with CCDs since the '90s and CMOS Active Pixel sensors since perhaps 2005. CMOS is finally getting to be good enough to replace CCD in science applications; mirrorless has almost nothing to do with it.

QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Then, obviously, faster sensor readout open up more functionalities, such as in camera stacking, video recording , slow motion.
Faster sensor readout was always a constraint of CCD sensor, which have been around for 50 years now, and right now they are at their state-of-the-art, although they are still limited to typically 1-4 simultaneous readouts.

The shift to CMOS fabrication for Active Pixel Sensors allowed lots of logic to be put on the same chip - including many hundreds or thousands of parallel analog-to-digital converters.



Noise is the counterpart.

Stacking isn't really as necessary if you get rid of noise on long exposures. Cooled CCDs can shoot 20min to hour long exposures, with a bit of amplifier glow in the corners where the chips are read out.
CMOS suffers from glow along the edges of the chip, especially where the logic and ADCs are. And there are thousands of transistors involved in doing that to get fast readout.

The other thing is the sheer number of pixels is driving the need for (a) more ADCs on board the CMOS sensor; (b) higher memory bandwidth to temporarily store the pixel data streams, (c) faster storage devices to save the final image, (d) faster onboard FPGAs and processors, (e) faster interfaces to get the data out of the camera - to displays, computers, storage.
So, frame rate isn't just constrained by the sensor readout speed. If you can't move all the data around, manipulate it, and store it in realtime, then the fastest sensor readout is constrained by the slowest part of the system.

QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
But so far, most mirrorless models use sensors that were designed for DSLR, performance is not (not yet) revolutionary.
I don't agree that the issue is "designed for DSLR". Right now we can get big CMOS sensors with 24fps-30fps; the issue is how fast you can move the data, manage the data, process it, and present it, in a device that has to run off a couple lithium cells, and not need a massive heatsink and cooling fans. There is a huge amount of processor power, fast memory, and custom logic to keep up with the frame rates that are technically possible, with a pretty small power pack and limited ability to get the heat out. Heat of course is the cause of thermal noise - and that impacts image quality.

My issue with most mirrorless is the lag between photon in and photon displayed on the electronic viewfinder. And the pipe from sensor to display is quite constrainted when you get to large pixel counts.


QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
In medium format, the mirrorless versions of the 645z are not that impressive with their contrast detect AF, about as slow as focusing in live view. Bodies are smaller , but autofocus on those cameras is far from impressive.
Agree completely. I find them disappointing.

QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
When mirrorless models will have sensors capturing 50 images per second, then mirrorless will be a game changer.
High frame frame sensors, with enough computing horsepower and memory bandwidth would give most of the same game-changing capabilities to a DSLR.
The DSLR constraint would be moving the mirror and firing the shutter; Live view has already shown that it's not that different to mirrorless.
04-03-2020, 10:54 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by ProfessorBuzz Quote
Right now we can get big CMOS sensors with 24fps-30fps; the issue is how fast you can move the data, manage the data, process it
Sure. That's a bottleneck for the autofocus speed of mirrorless cameras with high resolution sensors unless the sensor is designed so that only AF point are being read out instead of read the whole mass of pixels.
I believe the GFX100 sensor allow partial readout of PDAF point for collecting autofocus frame at speeds faster than the 4 frames per sec. of the full 100Mpixels images, likely not being the case of the 51Mpixels sensor used in 645z, GFX50 and X1D. I'd say, the GFX100 sensor is designed for mirrorless operation, while GFX50 sensor is designed for DSLR type cameras.

04-03-2020, 11:38 AM   #20
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The Alpha 9 II reads the AF 60 times per second, this is not the bottleneck.
The only thing holding MILC back is the quality of the evf. If it reaches mirror level I don't see any reason why not use it.
I was talking very badly about evf, I remember the Sony A7 I as making me feel travel sick and very laggy, but since I tried the new generation with good resolution and 120fps, I think they are on a good way.
04-03-2020, 11:59 AM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
I don't see much advantage to mirrorless cameras until CMOS sensors are full designed for mirrorless, continuously capturing images at a quick frame rate. Then, obviously, faster sensor readout open up more functionalities, such as in camera stacking, video recording , slow motion. But so far, most mirrorless models use sensors that were designed for DSLR, performance is not (not yet) revolutionary. In medium format, the mirrorless versions of the 645z are not that impressive with their contrast detect AF, about as slow as focusing in live view. Bodies are smaller , but autofocus on those cameras is far from impressive. When mirrorless models will have sensors capturing 50 images per second, then mirrorless will be a game changer.
I guess I don't see 50 fps as being revolutionary, but more evolutionary and completely useless. I'm sure it will come one of these days, but I would just rather have better quality images. Something more like Foveon, but without the down sides of it. But that sort of improvement isn't something that would MILC specific by any means.
04-03-2020, 12:06 PM - 1 Like   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I guess I don't see 50 fps as being revolutionary, but more evolutionary and completely useless.
yes, you don't need 50 photographs per second, but the EVF and AF system needs a lot of frames per seconds from the image sensor. You can have an EVF with 120 FPS to display images produced by a 3 FPS image sensor, which produce a huge lag and rolling shutter when moving the camera. On a mirrorless, the performance of EVF and AF are tied to the readout speed of the image sensor, which is not the case for a DSLR.

04-03-2020, 12:25 PM   #23
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MILCs can record full HD at 120fps without cropping. Readout speed is a non-issue for quite some time already.
04-03-2020, 12:47 PM - 1 Like   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
I'm not so sure. Wealthy people will remain wealthy. Not-so-wealthy people will have to cut on everything but basic expenses (food, rent and so on).

A bit of insider information from a friend of mine who is the head of Hermès's logistics: their main problem during the Hubei confinement was to deliver their products there. People kept on ordering, if anything in bigger quantities than usual.
LVMH will proceed with its acquisition of Tiffany. They know in bad times wealthy people don’t change their spending behavior much. China is the ostentatious spending market of the future.
04-03-2020, 12:56 PM - 2 Likes   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Interestingly , tech companies haven't slowed down, they expect to sell more in the second half of the years after the virus crisis is over. They say, the underlying demand for new product is still there, customers just postpone some of their purchases. The other thing is central banks injecting short term cash and governments paying bills, and spreading the short term spending spike over the long term debt, and this might trigger a positive economic growth cycle after the infection is over. Currently, we have negative perception of the virus crisis because of short term view of it. In reality, the infection cycles last one month , and one month slow down in one year is less than 10%. If lots of sales are recovered after one month , the drop of revenues this year will be less that 10%, not a very big impact actually. For the camera industry however, the underlying demand for cameras is naturally falling without virus; the virus crisis might just be used as an excuse for explaining low sales at end of 2020.
I think you don’t really understand the economic damage that has been and will be done and how long it will take to recover. We’re suggesting a 2-quarter reduction in GDP of unprecedented numbers. This is a disinflationary/deflationary event. Not 2008-2009, but nevertheless economic growth, employment and capital investment will be slowed dramatically for many years. Interest rates will be zero for half a decade.

While basic consumption will resume in 2021, marginal consumption won’t even start to recover until 2022 - and that assumes we don’t need to go back into hibernation this coming winter.

Last edited by monochrome; 04-03-2020 at 02:20 PM.
04-04-2020, 01:32 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
While basic consumption will resume in 2021, marginal consumption won’t even start to recover until 2022 - and that assumes we don’t need to go back into hibernation this coming winter.
So this means we will see a positive economic growth higher than average from 2021 to 2022, with increase of hiring by businesses seeing growing demand for their products and services, which in turn will increase people spending, increase in investments in new projects, triggering a virtuous economic cycle. We could even imaging camera sales increasing again in 2021 and 2022. That will be great.
04-04-2020, 03:18 AM - 1 Like   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
I think you don’t really understand the economic damage that has been and will be done and how long it will take to recover. We’re suggesting a 2-quarter reduction in GDP of unprecedented numbers. This is a disinflationary/deflationary event. Not 2008-2009, but nevertheless economic growth, employment and capital investment will be slowed dramatically for many years. Interest rates will be zero for half a decade.

While basic consumption will resume in 2021, marginal consumption won’t even start to recover until 2022 - and that assumes we don’t need to go back into hibernation this coming winter.
I do think COVID will come back this coming winter, but I think there will (a) be people who have immunity to it and (b) a vaccine and other tools to mitigate its effects. Second time through won't be as bad as right now, but I wouldn't expect the economy to "come back on line" in many places before June and even then, levels of unemployment and bankruptcy will probably be unprecedented.
04-04-2020, 07:28 AM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
So this means we will see a positive economic growth higher than average from 2021 to 2022, with increase of hiring by businesses seeing growing demand for their products and services, which in turn will increase people spending, increase in investments in new projects, triggering a virtuous economic cycle. We could even imaging camera sales increasing again in 2021 and 2022. That will be great.
A 25% decline followed by a 25% recovery leaves us at 93.75% of where we started. The <6.25% > is the value of economic destruction encountered. There is nothing virtuous about this circle.
04-04-2020, 07:44 AM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
A 25% decline followed by a 25% recovery leaves us at 93.75% of where we started. The <6.25% > is the value of economic destruction encountered. There is nothing virtuous about this circle.
Investment is psycho, not real, self fulfilling prophecy. It's enough for investors to think the market is going to go up to make them decide to invest, as they invest new products and services are offered and GDP goes up. So if everyone of us if positive, the GDP will go up. If everyone says like you, GDP will go down. You have to say that the market is going to go up if you want it to go up.
04-04-2020, 08:25 AM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Interest rates will be zero for half a decade.
This is probably going to be the biggest change to global economics, while there have been temporary forays into near-zero (and in Japan, slightly negative) interest rate territory in the past, this is probably going to be the new norm. The new normal is a surplus of capital and a deficit of positive returns.


The camera industry has already started to evolve into what its future will look like, a limited number of low volume, high margin specialized products for enthusiasts with above average disposable incomes.
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