[beholder3]

Some interesting data was published in mid March:

The fun part is that you have to read both links below which are about the same data:


February sales in Japan: Not Sony, nor Canon nor Nikon nor Fuji are leading in the mirrorless market world...guess who is :) - mirrorlessrumors

Sony Is The Alpha Dog In The Mirrorless Pack, According to February


It also shows that only 1 in 10 leading models is 36x24 sensor with 3.2% share. The top sellers all user smaller sensors.

[JohnX]

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments.

[StiffLegged]

What exactly is interesting about this?

[biz-engineer]

It looks like Japanese camera makers are tough guys, they made more "me too" camera models in 2018 while the market is shrinking. The result, I suppose is everyone of them never recover their R&D spending. Who doesn't like pain ? FF makers should increase prices to see if it helps

[FozzFoster]

I really like my apsc dslr...

less expensive camera
less expensive lenses
less weight
comparable images on most commonly consumed media...

I get that a FF mirrorless camera is all the buzz, and it can do some cool things.
but those cool things come at such a high price and a lot of camera makers are putting all their eggs into the FF mirrorless basket.
It daunts new photographers from getting into photography and stops the purchase of a dedicated camera (use smartphone instead)..

but I guess who really knows exactly what to do with a shrinking market..

[photoptimist]

This data says more about Japan than it does about camera industry trends.

Japan is the only region in the world (according to the CIPA stats) where compact cameras still outsell interchangeable lens cameras. The Japanese simply love smaller cameras which biases the sales toward M4/3 and APS-C.

So unless one believes compact cameras are the future, Japanese sales data doesn't mean much on a world stage.

[dms]

Reminds me of Aeronautical Engineering Professor that was fond of saying (in a heavy Italian accent)

" statistics say if you have-a two 2 cars and I no-a have a car, we each have-a car, but I no-a have a car."

[krazny]

As photoptimist pointed out, this statistics applies to Japan and Japan only.

And not only that, the conclusion drawn seems to be valid for february and february only.

[beholder3]

This data says more about Japan than it does about camera industry trends.

Not so much. This thread - as can be read via its title - is discussing what happens in Japan.

Japan is one of the big "regions" for camera sales and it happens to be the home market of most manufacturers.

Even suggesting that this large chunk of sales and being the home market is ignoring some facts.

[Rondec]

Let’s just say that this probably says sales are tanking hard. Everyone is down to a fraction of where they were. Olympus is just a little bigger fraction. But Nikon is certainly hurting. This downturn came at the worst possible time for them and they aren’t very diversified.

[Mistral75]

BCN Ranking have published their March 2020 unit sale figures for Japan and they aren't pretty:

新型コロナ追い打ちで壊滅的打撃、ミラーレス一眼の販売半減 - BCN＋R

- mirrorless market: minus 50.5% year-over-year (minus 23.5% in February and minus 9.9% in January) - they don't say anything about the SLR market
- Sony (leader in March like in February): minus 55.5% yoy (see the red curve below)
- Olympus (#2): minus 45.1% yoy (green curve below)
- Canon (#3): minus 67.7% yoy (blue curve below)
- Fujifilm (#4): plus 15.6%.



The ten best selling cameras in March 2020 according to BCN Ranking are as follows:

[photoptimist]

Not so much. This thread - as can be read via its title - is discussing what happens in Japan.

Japan is one of the big "regions" for camera sales and it happens to be the home market of most manufacturers.

Even suggesting that this large chunk of sales and being the home market is ignoring some facts.

Sure, they are facts about Japan. And it may be true that Japanese businesses probably bias their decisions based on marketshares in Japan

However.... the overall data shows that Japanese preferences are very different from any other region. They are the only CIPA region that loves compact cameras. Moreover, Japan is only 10% of the CIPA camera market for ILCs so it's hard to believe that Japanese businesses would ignore or can ignore trends in the other 90%. I'm glad Olympus is doing well in Japan (I've had three Olympus film cameras over the years and liked them). But I'm skeptical that the average non-Japanese camera buyer is swayed by gyrations in what is popular in Japan.

Thus facts about Japan may not mean much outside of Japan.

[Serkevan]

Sure, they are facts about Japan. And it may be true that Japanese businesses probably bias their decisions based on marketshares in Japan

However.... the overall data shows that Japanese preferences are very different from any other region. They are the only CIPA region that loves compact cameras. Moreover, Japan is only 10% of the CIPA camera market for ILCs so it's hard to believe that Japanese businesses would ignore or can ignore trends in the other 90%. I'm glad Olympus is doing well in Japan (I've had three Olympus film cameras over the years and liked them). But I'm skeptical that the average non-Japanese camera buyer is swayed by gyrations in what is popular in Japan.

Thus facts about Japan may not mean much outside of Japan.

In my experience with other Japanese stuff (not cameras, but manga/anime and videogames), Japanese companies can have a presence overseas that accounts for more than half their total sales and they will still actively ignore it and market the material exclusively based on what Japanese customers want.

[Rondec]

I just think taking first place in this sort of market is like taking first prize in an ugly contest...

[RGlasel]

Thus facts about Japan may not mean much outside of Japan.

I agree with this, with the provisio that BCN is not even an accurate view of the total Japanese market. This has been discussed here before, BCN customers are tilted more to the compact end of the spectrum than even the general Japanese market.

Camera manufacturers aren't developing new models at the expense of existing models today, but they will build anything already in the pipeline that consumers will buy. Which is not very much. I guarantee every camera manufacturer executive in Japan would be all over a sudden upswing in demand in China or Brazil or France (or even the U.S.) for current models, if such a thing actually existed. Lack of manufacturing capacity is not an issue.