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04-23-2020, 03:33 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
The human specie is double sided, everyone only does things in their own personal interest. As a result some people get crushed, but that's no different in nature, as I could observe when shooting wildlife, in the realm of living creatures, cruelty is normal.
So is the herd instinct, where the stronger protect the weaker.

04-23-2020, 03:54 AM   #17
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Price drop in used gear, rebate battles after the crisis. A buyers market in theory. Overall less money will be spent on non essential goods for a couple quarters. No business is strong or stupid enough to produce and release at full steam. Create attention maybe, but don’t expect sales to go back to before crisis any time soon. The market was on decline anyway.
04-23-2020, 04:22 AM - 2 Likes   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by zapp Quote
Overall less money will be spent on non essential goods for a couple quarters.
Sales of noodles, toilet paper, and masks surged, while camera sales slumped. In this market, you better be selling Pentax cameras, AND Pentax branded toilet paper AND Pentax noodles, in which case your business remains flat.
04-23-2020, 07:35 AM - 1 Like   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
Sales of noodles, toilet paper, and masks surged, while camera sales slumped. In this market, you better be selling Pentax cameras, AND Pentax branded toilet paper AND Pentax noodles, in which case your business remains flat.
Maybe Pentax and Ramen could launch some kind of joint project. Ramtax or Pentmen maybe?

04-23-2020, 07:43 AM - 3 Likes   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
I can start to see how is like the after covid-19 economic release. Shops are busy, full of people with lists of items to purchase, business activity in full swing again (more than before slow down). Bosses looking at schedules asking employees to speed up to catch up lost time. Economy is back up again, stronger that ever before. That's impressive. Not sure about camera sales.
That may happen where you live, but in the USA (world's second largest economy) I don't believe things will rebound quickly. Before the pandemic hit, it was reported that almost 40% of US workers had less than $400 in liquid savings. Our social safety nets (we call some of it Unemployment Compensation) do not compare well with what is offered elsewhere in the world. Many of the populace have resorted to maxing out available credit and to the use of local charitable organizations for necessities. In my state, one in five are currently unemployed. While some financial organizations have offered temporary forgiveness on loan repayment, smaller companies (ex., small landlords) can't afford to do that, as they too live paycheck to paycheck.

So those of us fortunate enough to weather this storm on a reasonably sound financial footing may have pent up demand, but an economy here in "full swing" is going to take a long time, probably longer than the recovery from the recession of 2008.
04-23-2020, 09:53 AM   #21
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Funny how e can all look at the same situation...

and come up with a spectrum of views. I say spectrum because there's overlap/blending.

To jump into the pool:
  • Pentax, being conservative, maybe is in a better position than other companies. I'd hate to be Nikon or Olympus right now.
  • I think we'll see a bit of a blossoming of new products all roll out at a time when the companies feel it's an appropriate time. Everyone's on hold right now.
  • We'll see what happens around the world (developed nations) with respect to consumer demand as we come out of this in months or maybe even next year. The global economy is a consumer economy for most fully developed nations. Are we saying consumers will no longer consume? I don't think so
  • Pursuant to the above, the wild days of the aughts in the camera biz were already gone before the pandemic hit. All releases have slowed down, most to nearly all ILC cameras are excellent. Little real need for brand new models all the time. I remember when that was true in film days. Growth doesn't have to be wild to be successful, although some manufacturers (not Pentax! Ha!) will be making some adjustments.
  • The U.S. will be a problem child for a while, different from the other fully developed nations, as this crisis has exposed structural problems with the U.S. economy: reliance on lots of consumer debt, real estate,the gig economy, the detachment of Wall Street from Main Street; mergers and acquisition frenzy, unwillingness to fund a social safety net, disconnects in the federal system (not just the Federal gov't, but also the coordination between it and the states and the states with one another outside the Fedral gov't) and more. It's actually a blessing, as this time the problems are hitting everyone---now white collar workers are being furloughed. Time for the U.S. to wake up to the idea that rugged individualism works one way in 1783 with just over 3 million people, and maybe doesn't scale so well to a country that is more than 100x larger. Just sayin'.
  • But even the U.S. consumer will be spending again. It's in our DNA now.
All these things together will combine together in some interesting way in the near future of the next several years. I don't think doom and gloom is called for in the camera industry, just a reset to sanity.
04-23-2020, 10:22 AM - 2 Likes   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
I can start to see how is like the after covid-19 economic release. Shops are busy, full of people with lists of items to purchase, business activity in full swing again (more than before slow down). Bosses looking at schedules asking employees to speed up to catch up lost time. Economy is back up again, stronger that ever before. That's impressive. Not sure about camera sales.
Not. Gonna. Happen.

States will open in stages with social distancing rules and limits of customers in stores. Online deliveries will still prioritize supplies and non-essentials will still have 30-day lead times. People will be cautious until there is an effective vaccine. Recession in place through end of 3Q2020 and 2021 will be better, but the old normal will not return for years. We’ll be above 10% unemployment for a long time.

04-23-2020, 10:23 AM - 1 Like   #23
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We were looking at the K-P withe the current Amazon price of $750 Canadian, almost half off the original purchase price. The trouble is, her K-5 still works, my K-3 still works, we both shoot with the K-1 when it's for something "special.'

Like the oil price war coinciding with the Corona virus, the camera industry is taking a hit. Face it, they aren't essential items. I have my k-1, k-3, K5. XG-1. Optio W90. Nikon AW 130 and Lumix ZS100. I have 22 lenses for the DSLRs, equally split between FF capable and APS_c lenses.

We simply cannot convince ourselves we need another camera.

QuoteQuote:
The human specie is double sided, everyone only does things in their own personal interest. As a result some people get crushed, but that's no different in nature, as I could observe when shooting wildlife, in the realm of living creatures, cruelty is normal.
If you've checked out the various research done around Meyers brigs, you'd understand ya, 95% of people are only motivated by self interest. But about 5% see the big picture. And many believe in a social contract, where we look after others expecting that if we ever need help they will look after us (what goes around comes around) and if memory serves me well, they represent at least 25% of the population.

By comparison the "I only look after myself" category is no larger than the "we need to look after each other" quadrant.
04-23-2020, 10:27 AM - 1 Like   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
The human specie is double sided, everyone only does things in their own personal interest. As a result some people get crushed, but that's no different in nature,
At least since the 1890's we've known that this is a caricature of Darwin. One that Darwin himself didn't agree with. Simply put it's a lot more complicated than that.

Seconly assuming "nature" in general as a template for human society in 2020 doesn't make much sense. You have an awful lot of things that you'd have great difficulty explaining with this framework as a guiding principle. How prone you are to be attracted to these types of proclamations depend on how much you need it to justify your own choices as well as how much the society you live in use it to justify it's workings.

I hope people who can consume less will continue to do so after this pandemic. I also hope people will work an awful lot less. I say this as someone likely to be out of a job if this continues for much longer. I do however hope we can avoid widespread poverty and misery in the coming years. When topics such as pandemics are concerned Pentax or any gear is way down my list of things to care about.
04-23-2020, 02:57 PM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
I can start to see how is like the after covid-19 economic release. Shops are busy, full of people with lists of items to purchase, business activity in full swing again (more than before slow down). Bosses looking at schedules asking employees to speed up to catch up lost time. Economy is back up again, stronger that ever before. That's impressive. Not sure about camera sales.
I will be quite surprised if the "re-open" stage looks like flipping a light switch from dark to bright. It seems like everyone we know is extremely cautious and not at all anxious to run out and die.

The only people who can (possibly) believe they are safe are those who have had the illness, recovered, and are now believed to be immune. I say "possibly" because there are troubling reports of people weeks later testing positive again. We don't know if this is a lingering thing -- the way HIV hides out in obscure cells for example -- or the way that chicken pox hides out in the nerves only to reoccur years later as shingles -- or if it truly confers immunity. And then for how long? Life? A couple years?

The 2008-9 recession had the slowest economic recovery in modern history. But there was no illness killing people who ventured out too much or mixed too much in the population shopping, traveling, etc.

Aside from the basics needed for survival and a few feel-good items, I think most people will hold their money close for years now.

The only thing that would look like a bright light being switched on would be a truly effective vaccine, administered widely and quickly. Even the most optimistic don't see that happening for a year and more. It's even longer before billions of doses are created.

I hate to be so grim, but reality keeps knocking on the door day and night. Actually avoiding reality might be a good choice for me for a while....

Edited to add, from the evening news: 48% of Americans say they will not return to public life ("venture out") until the virus is "contained." We can all discuss, I suppose, what those terms technically mean and how strong the protection reflex will be...

Cheers! Everyone stay safe and stay healthy!

Last edited by yucatanPentax; 04-23-2020 at 03:47 PM. Reason: add poll results
04-23-2020, 08:45 PM   #26
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The world economy will come back. Most long term depressions and recessions were caused by failures in the financial and banking systems. That is not the case now. Those systems are very sound. How fast it will come back will all depend upon how long it takes for individual consumers to be able to make their own assessment of the risk to themselves. Right now people are afraid if they step out of their house they will die. The news media and politicians keep reinforcing this belief. Only when testing and research can determine the true infection rate in the population and the percentages within different groups that could become infected, seriously ill, or die, can people make that risk assessment to them personally and the risk they pose to others. If they think it's too high for them they will stay in. If they feel it's acceptable they will go out. An effective therapy and/or vaccine will reduce that risk. Right now people cannot make that assessment confidently.
04-23-2020, 11:02 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
We simply cannot convince ourselves we need another camera.
We have only two hands to hold a camera and use it. I never use more than one lens at a time, so the more lenses I have the less they are used. My most used lens is the DFA28-105, happens to be not the most expensive one...
I say, better have one good camera and 3 good lenses than have 50 old cameras and 50 old lenses. You could sell 15 out of your 22 lenses, even at $50 each, 15 x $50 and sell your K5 buys you a Kp new.

---------- Post added 24-04-20 at 08:13 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by house Quote
I also hope people will work an awful lot less.
Without getting into politics, this period of staying at home has shown that given the level of computer automation we have, human beings could have all the life essential good and comfort without working that much. We've seen that with only 20% of the population not working from home (doing actual physical work), there was no shortage of food, no impact of water supply, no shortage of electricity (not even decrease in quality), no shortage of telecom services. With only 20% of people doing actual work, there was no change of our stand of living, which is enlightening. I've come to realize that me being stressed out at work (technology) with lot of pressure from management, lots of stress and overtime for providing products such as electronics that people don't actually need for living a good quality of life! Those engineers working for Ricoh, Nikon, Sony, Canon are being pressured to make new cameras models with superior performance but not because people really need the new model, but because if the performance of new models is no better than the performance of previous models, new models won't sell...

Last edited by biz-engineer; 04-23-2020 at 11:16 PM.
04-23-2020, 11:42 PM - 1 Like   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
With only 20% of people doing actual work, there was no change of our stand of living, which is enlightening. I've come to realize that me being stressed out at work (technology) with lot of pressure from management, lots of stress and overtime for providing products such as electronics that people don't actually need for living a good quality of life!
The frightening thing is the billions of people over decades of time living under this stress and fear. The hours of human life sacrificed are mindboggling.

The social distancing is terrible for many people and I hope everyone can go back to meeting friends and family under crowded conditions asap.

I do think it's important to understand that most production is unnecessary BUT a wide angle Pentax prime (20-24mm) is absolutetly essential
04-24-2020, 12:06 AM - 1 Like   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
this period of staying at home has shown that given the level of computer automation we have, human beings could have all the life essential good and comfort without working that much. We've seen that with only 20% of the population not working from home (doing actual physical work), there was no shortage of food, no impact of water supply, no shortage of electricity (not even decrease in quality), no shortage of telecom services. With only 20% of people doing actual work, there was no change of our stand of living, which is enlightening.
With respect, you're not considering the longer term impact. Most of the food we're eating was farmed, processed, packed and in the distribution chain before the pandemic arrived. The infrastructure that delivers our various services was put in place before the pandemic arrived. If we were to continue with so few people working, food production, processing and distribution would be hit. Infrastructure servies and maintenance would be hit. Many other essential services would be hit. A large portion of society would be financially crippled and unable to afford even the basics to live without government and/or charitable hand-outs. Crime would increase. Economies would melt down beyond the point of realistic recovery. Only 20% of the work-force actually working simply isn't sustainable in the medium to long term.

Last edited by BigMackCam; 04-24-2020 at 12:18 AM.
04-24-2020, 12:19 AM   #30
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
With respect, you're not considering the longer term impact.
Yes you are right, we have everything working now because there was works and infrastructure buffered from the past. Yet, bread, salad, cheese, water, electricity are not from one month ago, they are being produced right now, and those require only a minority of the population working. Most people in EU and US now work in offices, doing immaterial things. The material things are mostly done in China, mostly machine produced with only a few staff to monitor machines. For wood works, electronics, and all kind of other products, there is a machine that spit them out every second or minute. I've been in production factories in China, you have hundreds, if not a thousand of machines lined-up in an industrial facility, run by 50 people, the production fire power is nearly unlimited, put into container and shipped to Europe. In Europe we seat in office the whole week behind a computer, what do we produce behind computers?

---------- Post added 24-04-20 at 09:24 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Only 20% of the work-force actually working simply isn't sustainable in the medium to long term.
I believe around 50% would be enough, with no impact on standard of living. You can look at it in a different perspective: since WWII, we've largely developed computers and applied them production automation, productivity increased dramatically, 100% and more. Yet, unemployment hasn't increased to 50%, so how did society benefit from the increased productivity? Well, if you increase productivity and still have the same number of people working the same number of hours per week, it looks like either they are wasting their time or they are doing things to produce things that didn't exist before. The things that didn't exist before are things that we don't need for living, things that we want but we don't need..

---------- Post added 24-04-20 at 09:26 ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by biz-engineer Quote
The things that didn't exist before are things that we don't need for living, things that we want but we don't need..
Do I need a new camera? No. Do I want one? My level of desire will depends how much promise of good things will come with the new model that I don't need

Last edited by biz-engineer; 04-24-2020 at 12:27 AM.
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