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04-25-2020, 11:06 AM   #46
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
In the US in 1940 43% of people owned a house, today it's something like 65%. Today it's a given that everyone has a car or three, a TV or six, cell phones, broadband internet, computers...
The amount of human labour embedded in a contemporary house is a fraction of that embedded in an 1940's house. Same goes for the car, I'd love to see figures for that actually. That tv or cellphone has incredible low embedded labour despite slave like conditions in the producer countries. People who bring up computers or phones haven't considered how agriculture and manufacture has changed. The simplest object from the 1940's had more embedded hours than a contemporary phone.

04-25-2020, 11:29 AM - 1 Like   #47
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Even the truly wealthy are cautious, and the middle class is terrified.
The plague is inverting a lot of our economic activity. Blue collar work is essential and white collar work can be done in basements and kitchens. Bureaucratic infrastructure is not only becoming obsolete, it is being exposed as an impediment to human progress. Healthcare will have to focus on prevention instead of treatment. The times, they are a changin.

---------- Post added 04-25-20 at 12:43 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by house Quote
The amount of human labour embedded in a contemporary house is a fraction of that embedded in an 1940's house. Same goes for the car, I'd love to see figures for that actually. That tv or cellphone has incredible low embedded labour despite slave like conditions in the producer countries. People who bring up computers or phones haven't considered how agriculture and manufacture has changed. The simplest object from the 1940's had more embedded hours than a contemporary phone.
The hours of labour have gone down somewhat, but the value of skilled labour has grown at the same time. Raw material and logistics costs have decreased significantly (after adjustments for inflation). What has really gone up is the number of features (especially in cars), so any direct comparison is meaningless. The reason electronics are produced in countries with extremely low labour rates is because labour is still a significant portion of manufacturing costs.

The reason 7.8 billion people have a significantly higher standard of living today than less than 2 billion people had 100 years ago is because of the incredible increase in agricultural productivity.
04-25-2020, 12:17 PM   #48
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Maybe it is because I live in a rural area, but what I see people driving is really old cars and trucks. I don't ever see a BMW or high end vehicle of any kind. Then again, I don't see people building the size homes you are describing either. Here, an acre of land typically sells for about 2500 dollars.
Here where I live in Maryland an acre of land that will perc and you can build a house on goes for about $150k. On the water it would be twice that or more.

My family has a farm in Rockingham County, Virginia, where 200 acres of woods, fields, farm might go for a few hundred thousand or so. Here I live on a small private road with maybe nine houses, and there are 3-4 German sedans, a Dodge Charger Hellcat, and several large pickups. At the farm in Virginia there are a lot of 10-, or 20-year old Hyundais and Ford/GM cars.

Even in Rockingham County I'm sure the $57k median income is sharply divided between people who live in Harrisonburg and work for JMU, and the folks in more rural areas who make less.
04-25-2020, 12:31 PM   #49
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QuoteOriginally posted by RGlasel Quote
The plague is inverting a lot of our economic activity. Blue collar work is essential and white collar work can be done in basements and kitchens. Bureaucratic infrastructure is not only becoming obsolete, it is being exposed as an impediment to human progress. Healthcare will have to focus on prevention instead of treatment. The times, they are a changin.
I think it’s really interesrting that what the Governors consider Essential Services (aside from government and medical non-elective) more likely to be labor intensive, blue collar than not. Just shows the relative value of plumbers versus managers.

04-25-2020, 12:50 PM   #50
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Here where I live in Maryland an acre of land that will perc and you can build a house on goes for about $150k. On the water it would be twice that or more.

My family has a farm in Rockingham County, Virginia, where 200 acres of woods, fields, farm might go for a few hundred thousand or so. Here I live on a small private road with maybe nine houses, and there are 3-4 German sedans, a Dodge Charger Hellcat, and several large pickups. At the farm in Virginia there are a lot of 10-, or 20-year old Hyundais and Ford/GM cars.

Even in Rockingham County I'm sure the $57k median income is sharply divided between people who live in Harrisonburg and work for JMU, and the folks in more rural areas who make less.
A lot of 20 year old Hyundais ?
04-25-2020, 02:33 PM - 1 Like   #51
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Here where I live in Maryland an acre of land that will perc and you can build a house on goes for about $150k. On the water it would be twice that or more.

My family has a farm in Rockingham County, Virginia, where 200 acres of woods, fields, farm might go for a few hundred thousand or so. Here I live on a small private road with maybe nine houses, and there are 3-4 German sedans, a Dodge Charger Hellcat, and several large pickups. At the farm in Virginia there are a lot of 10-, or 20-year old Hyundais and Ford/GM cars.

Even in Rockingham County I'm sure the $57k median income is sharply divided between people who live in Harrisonburg and work for JMU, and the folks in more rural areas who make less.
Shout out to Thor: I live in Baltimore. Pentax in Maryland, gotta love it.
04-25-2020, 02:39 PM - 1 Like   #52
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
My personal estimate is based on:
a) cameras, lenses very broadly take 3 years from "go" decision to market.
b) Until 02/2020 most companies were still in booming mode

So:
I would expect to see "normal" (for a -20%/a shrinking market) new products to appear deep into this year, something like October 2020. Finished products in electronics do not get better waiting.

After October-ish I expect things to dry up dramatically for most makers.

Pentax I guess will not have more than 1 lens/camera per year. I guess their operations is so small today that hibernation is rather easy to do.
Canon I expect to be trying to use brute force to win back market share even in this downturn.
Nikon I really do not see surviving, even though they'll fight until the last drop.
Sony I give a 70% probability of weathering it simply by shutting down camera business, much like they did with TVs. The work like Samsung.
Fuji could go hibernation but with way more new products than Pentax. I do not think they will close their toy store. It's too much of a fun gimmick division to have.
Olympus this time I could see follow Nikon down and out.
Panasonic has about the size of Pentax. My feeling is that Panasonic will hibernate as well. From pure economics they should have closed shop long ago, but did not.
I think a lot of this has to do with the way Japanese makers do things and are able to do things. They couldn't operate the way they do in the U.S., a market that is predatory and punishing and destroys modest performers (god forbid you operate on a loss for very long....). For reasons that aren't altogether clear to me, the Japanese market and Japanese corporations have a great deal of patience, for lack of a better word. We should all be glad the camera market manufacturing segment is at least parented in Japan, even if manufacturing is elsewhere....

04-25-2020, 04:03 PM   #53
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QuoteOriginally posted by texandrews Quote
I think a lot of this has to do with the way Japanese makers do things and are able to do things. They couldn't operate the way they do in the U.S., a market that is predatory and punishing and destroys modest performers (god forbid you operate on a loss for very long....). For reasons that aren't altogether clear to me, the Japanese market and Japanese corporations have a great deal of patience, for lack of a better word. We should all be glad the camera market manufacturing segment is at least parented in Japan, even if manufacturing is elsewhere....
Japan is fortunate in having a lot of patient capital, along with a deep sense of national coherence and pride. In the West (the Anglophone West, at least) we’ve been living for too long with a business mindset that has demanded a return of capital within 3-4 years (a bit more, perhaps, but I use that to make the point), deeply fragmented societies and a tendency to mistake jingoism for patriotism. They have their imperfections, of course, but people in glass houses...

I agree that Japan is probably the best place for the larger camera-makers to be centred, although it’s encouraging to see some in the West taking an interest again, even if, like with Japan, they manufacture elsewhere.
04-25-2020, 04:13 PM   #54
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Japan is fortunate in having a lot of patient capital, along with a deep sense of national coherence and pride. In the West (the Anglophone West, at least) we’ve been living for too long with a business mindset that has demanded a return of capital within 3-4 years (a bit more, perhaps, but I use that to make the point), deeply fragmented societies and a tendency to mistake jingoism for patriotism. They have their imperfections, of course, but people in glass houses...

I agree that Japan is probably the best place for the larger camera-makers to be centred, although it’s encouraging to see some in the West taking an interest again, even if, like with Japan, they manufacture elsewhere.
!00% return on capital in 3-4 years is more like it. The market illiquidity and associated waterfall decline was caused by all those levered b-d Momentum traders and hedge funds trying to cover their borrowings st the same time. Same with negative price on the May Oil futures contract.

That kind of predatory investing should be very closely regulated in the future, if not outlawed altogether. Banks are honest and patriotic by comparison.
04-25-2020, 04:16 PM   #55
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QuoteOriginally posted by RobA_Oz Quote
Japan is fortunate in having a lot of patient capital, along with a deep sense of national coherence and pride. In the West (the Anglophone West, at least) we’ve been living for too long with a business mindset that has demanded a return of capital within 3-4 years (a bit more, perhaps, but I use that to make the point), deeply fragmented societies and a tendency to mistake jingoism for patriotism. They have their imperfections, of course, but people in glass houses...

I agree that Japan is probably the best place for the larger camera-makers to be centred, although it’s encouraging to see some in the West taking an interest again, even if, like with Japan, they manufacture elsewhere.
Yes, although hedge funds are starting to push their way into power positions in Japanese companies too. Sony and Olympus both have at least some foreign membership on their boards now.
04-25-2020, 04:28 PM   #56
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
Yes, although hedge funds are starting to push their way into power positions in Japanese companies too. Sony and Olympus both have at least some foreign membership on their boards now.
Hoya / Sparxx.
04-25-2020, 11:07 PM   #57
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March 2020 CIPA numbers are out. Shipment comparisons to March 2019:
  • All cameras: -52% (units) / -52% (value)
  • Compact cameras: -47% (units) / -52% (value)
  • DSLRs: -66% (units) / -59% (value)
  • Mirrorless cameras: -46% (units) / -47% (value)
  • Lenses: -45% (units) / -39% (value)





Sources: http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-202003_e.pdf (cameras) and http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/s-202003_e.pdf (lenses).
04-26-2020, 05:45 AM   #58
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QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
A lot of 20 year old Hyundais ?


Yep, like this.
04-26-2020, 09:17 AM   #59
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
March 2020 CIPA numbers are out. Shipment comparisons to March 2019:
2019 was last year, what do I care about last year? What I found interesting is that compact cameras outsold ILCs for the first time this year. Obviously the market is swinging back to fixed lens cameras and Ricoh is at the front of the wave. (didn't they release a new WG not that long ago?)
04-26-2020, 10:23 AM   #60
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
...
Again, we're skirting the boundaries of social and economic ideologies, and that's awfully close to politics. Let's not stray into politics
Once upon a time, the term 'political economy' recognized, as an earlier comment of yours implies, that politics and economics are joined at the hip. Hence, while we can get away with mentally divorcing our thoughts about camera technology and photographic art from political economy, any discussion topic such as this thread's content, is, ultimately, about politics.
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