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05-02-2020, 08:24 AM   #1
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Lens sales - APSC lenses declining fast

Here is a graph made from CIPA data for lens sales.

Obviously APSC & mFT lenses are on average much cheaper than FF lenses.
But still sales of those collapse the most.

It is also interesting to see that APSC/mFT lenses are much more season dependent and spike a lot more before summer vacations and x-mas.




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05-02-2020, 08:39 AM - 1 Like   #2
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Obviously the April peak did not come this year (because of the COVID consequences).

Still there's a good chance for the next peak in October.

Anyway 2020 will be a bad year for most of us (from the finance point of view).
05-02-2020, 08:40 AM - 1 Like   #3
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I deleted my earlier comment because frankly I wasn't looking at the graph carefully enough.

I think we would need to look at past post-holiday sales graphs to see the relationship. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a huge falloff for APS-c every year after the holidays. APS-c cameras are on the whole more likely to be used by non-professionals and I would guess professional need for gear is more steady and less seasonal.
05-02-2020, 09:18 AM   #4
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By the way, historically lowest sales of smart phones are reported, too.

(And drop of car industry in Italy is incredible... 98%...!)

05-02-2020, 02:32 PM - 1 Like   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by zzeitg Quote
drop of car industry in Italy is incredible... 98%...!
Put my name on the list for when the futures for Ferrari/Lamborghini/Maserati follow oil and fall below zero. There's got to be a silver ling here. But there is not much to cause palpitations in the lens sales. Just about everything except toilet paper and hand sanitizer would be taking a similar dive at the moment.
05-02-2020, 02:49 PM   #6
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Last month I heard on the news that in the US new housing sales was down 50% and new car sales was down 25%
05-02-2020, 02:54 PM - 1 Like   #7
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I find myself wondering if (and by how much) the prices of gear will fall in the months to come. The recession that now seems certain will drive sales down. Manufacturers and dealers could drop prices in a bid to move inventory. This would drive down the price of used gear.

Another scenario is that folks could start selling stuff to generate cash to make ends meet. An increase in supply will thus drive down prices. On the other hand demand for luxuries like cameras and lenses will be low, driving prices down even more.

All in all, not a good scenario. Those with a bit of spare cash might pick up bargains, but...
05-03-2020, 11:34 AM   #8
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Am I reading this right... the average price of an APS-C lens sold is between $120 and $140? That's the average. And I'm assuming this is new sales only.

Look at that from Pentax' perspective. At B&H there are exactly two Pentax lenses below $140: The DA 50 f/1.8, and the DAL 35MM f/2.4. Even the 18-55 kit lens is $183. So to hit a $140 average they'd have to sell 17 35mm plastic fantastics for every 16-85mm they sold. Or something like 40 50mm f/1.8s for every 50-135 f/2.8.

I wonder if these numbers include lenses bundled in kits? They must sell 20 or 30 times as many discounted kit lenses as they do $500 lenses.

05-03-2020, 02:44 PM - 1 Like   #9
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^ Shipment values as reported by CIPA are FOB prices, not retail prices.

You shall add all transportation and storage costs plus the costs and margins of the importer, distributor and local retailer (and any additional intermediary) to obtain the retail price.
05-03-2020, 02:53 PM - 1 Like   #10
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I expect that the highest percentage of price decrease for used gear will come from the most expensive lenses and cameras. Might bring a resurgence of photographers using vintage manual focus prime lenses. With less disposable money to spend, serious photographers will choose premium vintage lenses that sell for much less than the latest lenses and offer IQ that's sometimes at a fairly similar level. (it's called the "manual focus discount").
05-04-2020, 04:10 AM   #11
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
^ Shipment values as reported by CIPA are FOB prices, not retail prices.

You shall add all transportation and storage costs plus the costs and margins of the importer, distributor and local retailer (and any additional intermediary) to obtain the retail price.
Ah, that makes more sense. I don't even know what all that would add up to, but probably at least double.
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