[lesmore49]

jersey - I agree with you. I'm from Denmark. 35mm film cameras were very common here. It seems like they were less prevalent in the US.

In my part of Canada, since say 2010, dslr's were most prevalent, seen at outdoor events, etc. during 2010 to about 2015. From then to 2019....invariably cell phone cameras are taking pics, with very few dslr's, mirrorless, etc..seen out there.

I'm a rarity with my K1, K5 or Ricoh GR ll. Even more of a rarity than I was with my K1000 back in the '80's. It maybe that dedicated, large cameras are .....doomed. Time will tell.

[texandrews]

In my part of Canada, since say 2010, dslr's were most prevalent, seen at outdoor events, etc. during 2010 to about 2015. From then to 2019....invariably cell phone cameras are taking pics, with very few dslr's, mirrorless, etc..seen out there.

I'm a rarity with my K1, K5 or Ricoh GR ll. Even more of a rarity than I was with my K1000 back in the '80's. It maybe that dedicated, large cameras are .....doomed. Time will tell.

No, they're not doomed. I've seen this happen before. When point and shoots got pretty good starting in the '80's, a lot of slr's started gathering dust on shelves. One outcome was that there was an incredibly rich used market---remember those great used photo shows that happened several times a year back in the '80's? They were amazing. And most camera stores also had a rich used section---and some, like a dear friend of mine's, specialized in used gear supplemented with new. That went on into the '90's. Then it started to drop off. Pretty much gone now I think in digital daze.

So, I don't think larger, full featured cameras are doomed(yet). I think these cameras were always overkill (massive!) for most people. As soon as something appeared that gave decent results with little effort---like those earlier P&S film cameras, and now phones---most people settled for them because the results were just fine for what they were mostly shooting.

Someday these larger cameras will die out, but there's a whole lotta tech advances that have to come not just in sensors but lenses as well and software as well. I'm guessing not before I'm dead, 30 years or so. So, mid century we should expect imaging to be a bit different, gear wise.

[Lord Lucan]

So, I don't think larger, full featured cameras are doomed(yet). I think these cameras were always overkill (massive!) for most people. As soon as something appeared that gave decent results with little effort---like those earlier P&S film cameras, and now phones---most people settled for them ....Someday these larger cameras will die out ...

They will not die out, but become fewer and more expensive as they will only be used by pros and the most serious amateurs. Some brands will die out - we know about Olympus, and I believe Sony will lose interest because they only got into big cameras to ride on the coat-tails of the then consumer boom in DSLRs. It is like PCs - the rubbish skips were filled with them when most people went to tablets and then smartphones, but professional and other serious users (including gamers), kept them and the market is more specialised now.

[Serkevan]

They will not die out, but become fewer and more expensive as they will only be used by pros and the most serious amateurs. Some brands will die out - we know about Olympus, and I believe Sony will lose interest because they only got into big cameras to ride on the coat-tails of the then consumer boom in DSLRs. It is like PCs - the rubbish skips were filled with them when most people went to tablets and then smartphones, but professional and other serious users (including gamers), kept them and the market is more specialised now.

To be honest, gaming hardware didn't even get *that* much more expensive in the last ten years (averaging the cost of a full rig) but that's also because gaming itself got massive numbers to compensate.

I've been buying midrange gaming laptops for ~1000€ a unit for a decade now, if anything the latest one (3 years ago) seems to have slightly lower build quality. But hey, a grand for a 17.3" monster that runs anything I need and will probably still make the 5-6 year mark I want out of my laptops ain't half bad. I've spent about as much in my relatively modest photo kit as I've spent in a decade of gaming, although lenses have resale value.

[Lord Lucan]

Not much said here about Olympus since the signing of the sale agreement on 30 September. Most (all?) press statements have been by Olympus, but what they have to say about the future of Olympus cameras after Jan 2021 is irrelevant unless it is a legally agreed with JIP, and there seems to have been no public disclosure of the legal agreement. Remarkably, almost nothing has been said by JIP themselves apart from (I'm told) an interview with a JIP executive in Japanese ?????????????????????? | IT?????????? | ????????? | ?????????? , and it is what JIP says that matters, not what Olympus says.

This more recent article New brand looming for Olympus - Inside Imaging gives a more realistic view than that being put out particularly by the official Olympus "influencers" on YouTube, like Robin Wong and Peter Fosgard. (Do Pentax have official influencers on YouTube?). In particular it points out that, unusually, there was no combined Olympus/JIP press conference at the time of the signing. It refers to the "tricky forms of words" being used by Olympus about the sale - having spent years working on engineering specifications and contracts myself, I have developed an allergy to evasive wording and can see it a mile away. From the insider imaging article :

we asked Olympus Australia Marketing Team member and media contact Ante Badzim the following questions:
– Does the sale of Olympus Imaging assets to JIP include rights to use the OLYMPUS brand?
– If so, for how long does that continue?
We didn’t get a straight answer, alas, ... He told Inside Imaging: ‘OM Digital Solutions will be using the Olympus brand from its establishment. The exact duration of its use is currently undecided.
‘Long term, OM Digital Solutions will consider developing a brand name that is familiar and resonates with customers and the Olympus legacy.’
From this we can fairly safely assume that no, the licence for the brand didn’t come with the acquisition, just as ‘Sony’ didn’t come with the sub-brand VAIO when that business was acquired by OM Digital Solutions parent, private equity firm JIP.

My own belief, and has been all along, is that JIP will continue production of existing designs only (ie ones done by parent Olympus, by their agreement) with Olympus branding, as long as they sell profitably, but will otherwise be using the manufacturing facilities to branch out in entirely new directions, possibly just as facilities for hire, or in the medium term for sale

[Serkevan]

In particular it points out that, unusually, there was no combined Olympus/JIP press conference at the time of the signing. It refers to the "tricky forms of words" being used by Olympus about the sale - having spent years working on engineering specifications and contracts myself, I have developed an allergy to evasive wording and can see it a mile away.

Yep, that's textbook marketing deflection.

as long as they sell profitably

This is the key point I think - if Oly was in the red because of not being able to recoup R&D costs despite unit sales profits, then JIP might keep the production lines running (assuming the R&D debt was not part of the purchase). If low unit margins were the main issue, then it's over. We'll see soon enough.

Also, Pentax does have official influencers. It's DPR, they are just negative influencers

[Lord Lucan]

Also, Pentax does have official influencers. It's DPR, they are just negative influencers

The only positive Pentax "influencer" on YouTube that I have found is Kobie Mercury-Clarke, and I have subscribed to him for encouragement , but I don't think he is official.

[Mistral75]

(...)

This is the key point I think - if Oly was in the red because of not being able to recoup R&D costs despite unit sales profits, then JIP might keep the production lines running (assuming the R&D debt was not part of the purchase). If low unit margins were the main issue, then it's over. We'll see soon enough.

(...)

The operating loss of Olympus Imaging was much bigger than their R&D costs. In FY2020 for instance (the fiscal year ending on 31 March 2020), the R&D costs amounted to ¥3.8bn and the operating loss to ¥10.2bn, 2.7 times the R&D costs. In FY 2019 the operating loss amounted to 4.4 times the R&D costs.

JIP will have to do much more than just cutting R&D and marketing costs to turn around the Imaging business.

[Rondec]

Basically, it sounds as though Olympus needs to sell more cameras at higher prices while spending less money designing and distributing them. What could be easier?

[LeeRunge]

I don’t see any way for Olympus to survive with the big 3 brands now full speed ahead in mirrorless. I’m looking at a Z6ii to replace my OMD setup that I use for travel and just consolidate to Nikon gear for my mirrorless needs. Mostly as it’s getting old running multiple interfaces and I prefer the FF sensor.

The Z6ii isn’t much different in size than an EM 1. The body’s are almost exactly the same size. The lenses are also smaller with the Z system. And the price of FF isn’t really more than M43. It’s strength was portability (specifically EM5/10) and smaller lenses (less now with mirrorless FF lenses). The problem is those lense are really expensive and basically cost the same as FF. Now FF offer’s the sync IBIS that was a huge feature of Olympus until the past few years.

The M43’s sensors are mostly ok to get the job done but FF is better espiecially in dynamic range. When you have both you miss just using FF but the smaller size is really nice. Now it’s kinda best of both worlds with the FF mirrorless being reduced in size.

An example would be Canons 600 and 800mm primes. F11 isn’t great but the R5/6 can pull about 7.5 stops of IBIS with sync so that helps. And significantly more compact than anything 600-800mm ever has been before for FF.

[Lord Lucan]

I don’t see any way for Olympus to survive with the big 3 brands now full speed ahead in mirrorless. I’m looking at a Z6ii to replace my OMD setup

I'm not sure you can call Nikon a big brand any more, and what about the rest of us (Pentax, Leica, Fuji, Hasselblad)? All these other brands have either been knocked out, or chosen to stay out, of the mud fight between Sony and Canon. In fact Nikon are in serious financial trouble; this is interesting:

Youtu.be

Youtu.be

If I were you I'd wait until JIP have settled in as new owners of Olympus, and Nikon's future is clearer, before making decisions. JIP have been almost silent since this purchase was first agreed, most statements have come from Olympus (ie the existing parent) but what they say will be irrelevant after the 1st of January.

[Serkevan]

I'm not sure you can call Nikon a big brand any more, and what about the rest of us (Pentax, Leica, Fuji, Hasselbald)? All these other brands have either been knocked out, or chosen to stay out, of the mud fight between Sony and Canon. In fact Nikon are in serious financial trouble; this is interesting: Nikon Gives Up On Consumer Cameras ????? - YouTube

If I were you I'd wait until JIP have settled in as new owners of Olympus, and Nikon's future is clearer, before making decisions. JIP have been almost silent since this purchase was first agreed, most statements have come from Olympus (ie the existing parent) but what they say will be irrelevant after the 1st of January.

Eh, their Z cameras are all very much consumer stuff. Particularly the Z5 is very competitively priced. Whether that's a sign of desperation, however, is a different story...

[texandrews]

I'm wondering if Oly wouldn't do better now to be re-positioned as a specialty imaging company: security, drones, & etc.

[lesmore49]

No, they're not doomed. I've seen this happen before. When point and shoots got pretty good starting in the '80's, a lot of slr's started gathering dust on shelves. One outcome was that there was an incredibly rich used market---remember those great used photo shows that happened several times a year back in the '80's? They were amazing. And most camera stores also had a rich used section---and some, like a dear friend of mine's, specialized in used gear supplemented with new. That went on into the '90's. Then it started to drop off. Pretty much gone now I think in digital daze.

So, I don't think larger, full featured cameras are doomed(yet). I think these cameras were always overkill (massive!) for most people. As soon as something appeared that gave decent results with little effort---like those earlier P&S film cameras, and now phones---most people settled for them because the results were just fine for what they were mostly shooting.

Someday these larger cameras will die out, but there's a whole lotta tech advances that have to come not just in sensors but lenses as well and software as well. I'm guessing not before I'm dead, 30 years or so. So, mid century we should expect imaging to be a bit different, gear wise.

Good take. I won't be around in 30 years, maybe 20-22 or so, if luck is on my side.

I got into 'good' cameras back in '68. when I got my first slr, a Pentax S1a. Back then it was also a plethora of point and shoots....some 35mm, a number of 110's. Owner/users of 35mm SLR and rangefinders were not common and mostly were from the enthusiast market and a few pros. Also medium formats were more common then...Rolleis, Mamiyas, Yashica, Autocord TLR's mostly.

Probably we will evolve to a similar pattern...enthusiast market and a few pros ...form a minority market....the Cell Phone brigade have replaced the point and shooter dedicated cameras is and will be the camera of the masses. And why not. Like anything else...few have mid engined Corvettes, most have Chevies, Fords, Toyotas, etc. the car of the masses...and I am in that camp...driving a car of the masses. .

[LeeRunge]

Eh, their Z cameras are all very much consumer stuff. Particularly the Z5 is very competitively priced. Whether that's a sign of desperation, however, is a different story...

They’re all competing to lock people into lenses now because once they’re invested they’ll stick around. That’s probably driving most of the lower prices. How’s not the time to price yourself out of the market and end up with 1% market share.

Nikon’s either gets people into Z camera’s or ends up a small player. Both Canon and Nikon will take a big chunk out of Sony’s share in mirrorless though as all those with large lens collections eventually will move into mirrorless in the coming years. I think both Canon and Nikon now actually have an appealing camera in the R5/6 and Z6/7ii to entice DSLR users to switch over.

---------- Post added 11-09-2020 at 08:32 AM ----------

I'm not sure you can call Nikon a big brand any more, and what about the rest of us (Pentax, Leica, Fuji, Hasselblad)? All these other brands have either been knocked out, or chosen to stay out, of the mud fight between Sony and Canon. In fact Nikon are in serious financial trouble; this is interesting: Nikon Gives Up On Consumer Cameras ????? - YouTube

If I were you I'd wait until JIP have settled in as new owners of Olympus, and Nikon's future is clearer, before making decisions. JIP have been almost silent since this purchase was first agreed, most statements have come from Olympus (ie the existing parent) but what they say will be irrelevant after the 1st of January.

It all depends on if the large DSLR user base they have converts over to mirrorless or switches to Sony or Canon in that transition. They still have a massive user base that’s waiting for the dust to settle to decide. If they convince them they live, if not it’s a Canon and Sony world of cameras coming up. If Sony doesn’t just bail because the markets shrinking so fast. Canon has a lot of appeal in the R5/6. I do think the Z6/7ii is just as competitive though. Sony camera menus drive me crazy and layouts they use.