[ismaelg]

Pardon my ignorant questions, but I've seen these charts forever and always wondered:
I suppose DSLM means Digital Single Lens Mirrorless?
What does "Poly" means and represents in the charts?
ILC: Interchangeable lens camera?
Are these units shipped reported from manufacturers? or sold units?
Just trying to better understand the charts.

Thanks,

[clackers]

Pardon my ignorant questions, but I've seen these charts forever and always wondered:
I suppose DSLM means Digital Single Lens Mirrorless?
What does "Poly" means and represents in the charts?
ILC: Interchangeable lens camera?
Are these units shipped reported from manufacturers? or sold units?
Just trying to better understand the charts.

Thanks,

Yeah, it's great work as always from Beholder, but perhaps that should say 'MILC'. The CIPA data the graph depicts call them 'non-reflex' or some other phrase.

The polynomial curve shows the trend so you can get an idea without being misled by your eye popping up and down all the time - it's a moving average, IIRC.

ILC *is* interchangeable lens camera.

The figures are shipped/sold from the manufacturers at wholesale prices, not retail figures - not what actual customers have bought.

It is Japanese data only, so doesn't include Leica or Hasselblad, for instance, and aggregates so as to not embarrass or highlight individual companies.

BTW, Ismael, I enjoyed your video on your lightbox to shoot model cars! But I must agree, please raise that light from resting on the top diffuser, otherwise the diffuser is not doing its job except make things a bit dimmer. The further you lift it, the more of the top sheet of paper gets illuminated and the light on your subject gets even softer and more beautiful.

People make that mistake in setting their flashes up inside an umbrella. The rod on the umbrella needs to be extended as far as practical away from the flash.

[beholder3]

The chart ends at April.

"April" is just the latest description on the axis. If you look closely you'll see the May data as well.

---------- Post added 6th Jul 2020 at 08:47 ----------

The polynomial curve shows the trend so you can get an idea without being misled by your eye popping up and down all the time - it's a moving average, IIRC.

All what you wrote is correct.


Excel allows trendlines to be added of different types. "Polynomial" up to the 5th degree seems to be the best. 5th degree allows to capture up to 5 up/downswings (the mathematical correct explanation is a little off topic here). Geekery: The current ILC trend is: y = 1E-10x5 - 2E-05x4 + 1,7744x3 - 75789x2 + 2E+09x -1E+13

[bobmaxja]

Sorry to say but the market will never jump back. Everybody already have a camera in their hands almost all the time.
The only market left For ILC are professional, convinced amateur and a small portion of the rest of the consumers but these peoples buy a camera , use it few times and never buy any lens or accessories.
Good analogies is high end sounds systems. Very few peoples own an amplifier and receiver now

[clackers]

Very few peoples own an amplifier and receiver now

Yes, very good point. For private music listening, it's designer headphones or maybe a Bluetooth portable speaker.

But there's still a niche market for those who want to put a Japanese amplifier with British speakers in their AV room.

[JohnX]

The OP has produced some impressive charts, but so what? It shows a declining camera market over 8 years. Ok. Have I missed the point of the post? If so, please enlighten me.

I enjoy my Pentax kit.

It was never an investment and was treated as a sunk cost immediately the purchase(s) was/were complete.

If I get anything back on resale - great! If I don't - c'est la vie.

I'm a firm believer in only getting exercised over things I have direct control over.

[BigMackCam]

The OP has produced some impressive charts, but so what? It shows a declining camera market over 8 years. Ok. Have I missed the point of the post? If so, please enlighten me.

I enjoy my Pentax kit.

It was never an investment and was treated as a sunk cost immediately the purchase(s) was/were complete.

If I get anything back on resale - great! If I don't - c'est la vie.

I'm a firm believer in only getting exercised over things I have direct control over.

Beholder3 has been kindly producing and sharing these graphs with us on a regular basis for our information, and I've appreciated it. I find it interesting - not just in terms of the overall market, but especially DSLR vs mirrorless. Such information has been helpful in concluding debates with mirrorless devotees who insist DSLRs are dead, and therefore so is Pentax - which we know, of course, to be false.

Whatever recovery there is in the "real camera" market, I think they will become niche items for dedicated amateurs and professionals - but I think the demand from those quarters will remain strong, albeit sales will slow (because even a five year old ILC is capable enough for most people). Whether the demand will be enough to sustain all of the current brands is another matter entirely...

[beholder3]

The OP has produced some impressive charts, but so what? It shows a declining camera market over 8 years. Ok. Have I missed the point of the post? If so, please enlighten me.

I enjoy my Pentax kit.

It was never an investment and was treated as a sunk cost immediately the purchase(s) was/were complete.

If I get anything back on resale - great! If I don't - c'est la vie.

I'm a firm believer in only getting exercised over things I have direct control over.

Please read it in context of the subforum. It is about an industry topic. No intention or need to "get excercised" at all. It is information.

[normhead]

Things are looking down.... the only question being, how low can it go?

[texandrews]

Things are looking down.... the only question being, how low can it go?

Now that is an interesting question, which I haven't seen explicitly asked before. Amplified: how low can each company go before it's a death spiral. I feel like Pentax managed to hit bottom and stabilize, and found a way to chug along low level. Could Nikon? Canon could as they are more diversified. Would Sony corp. tolerate big losses in their "still" camera division---like Canon they are more diversified, but so diversified that they could just withdraw from camera manufacture. Panasonic? Hassy is a weird one, Leica is too. Fuji is an interesting case. Phase One is now very esoteric.

[gatorguy]

Things are looking down.... the only question being, how low can it go?

Here's my thoughts.

If we see 2-4 more Pentax cameras, at least one of them full-frame, and 2 or 3 new class leading lenses along with 4 or 5 more price-friendly prosumer ones I'd say we've had an amazing run. How much better could our cameras and lenses get? The manufacturers don't need to be chasing "smart features" since smartphones can cover that so much better and more efficiently. The under 30's who have grown up on pretty decent and getting better mobile phone cameras and have a multitude of apps they can draw on for fast and creative processing with little effort aren't going to be attracted to even the smartest of the smart standalone shooters, at least in big enough numbers, so the investment in code and smart-features and regular ongoing updates by manufacturers won't be worth it. So if not smart features what?

Eye focus would be nice. Faster burst rates and bigger buffers would be greatly appreciated. Faster to focus and more reliably so is greatly welcome. I don't think very many of us would need more megapixels than the 24-40mp we all have available to us now so sensors are good as is. Maybe a bit of tweaking with high-ISO's and noise (and handling of the color red LOL) but gosh we have really great sensors now. All in all we don't need much. Our prosumer and professional cameras have pretty much reached peak as far as I'm concerned, and given another generation or maybe two they will be IMO. Our desire for the next camera, even as dedicated Pentax fans, will be waning after the next round of new bodies. I can't think of much beyond what I mentioned that would tempt me.

Until then I think we should all be as encouraging as we can, support Pentax with our words, actions and dollars, right up to the point there's nothing more to gain from new camera and lenses. I can already see the writing. Mirrorless makers like Sony and Fuji are trying to be the "smart" side of photography but they won't be successful or exist long-term. There was no pure love of the art behind the moneymen so when the profit drops below a certain level they'll bail. They're going to run over by ever better smartphones no matter what they do. There's just not enough market for a smart camera when we all have smartphones that will always be two steps ahead on the look-how-fast-and-easy-this-is train. With all the lenses and even older film cameras we Pentax users have at hand we're in a far better position than some others and for that I'm thankful. We can lean on existing Pentax stuff for another few decades.


So give me the penultimate Pentax crop and follow it up with an even more capable full-frame and I'll be happy for the rest of my photography days. Go out with a bang Pentax! We're going to be that niche of dedicated pros and dedicated hobbyists, no stopping that. Our numbers won't be expanding nor will Canon's or Sony's or any other camera manufacturer BUT...

The images we create will be appreciated even more in the future, living on far longer than the billions of throwaway smartphone snapshots . We still marvel at the art of Ansel Adams, Dorethea Lange, Robert Capa, George Hurrell and hundreds/thousands of others who actually cared about the images they created, having a love affair with their cameras and what can be created through them. Some of our own images may be included among that photo elite, we can't predict what the next photo at the next stop may yield. We here on the forums really do care about the craft, and thru us it lives on. Be appreciative and supportive of what we have, where we've been, and where we can go and don't be concerned that one day the run of Canon, or Nikon or Pentax will come to an end. It will, but the cameras and lenses and craft will continue to live on long after.

[Serkevan]

The under 30's who have grown up on pretty decent and getting better mobile phone cameras and have a multitude of apps they can draw on for fast and creative processing with little effort aren't going to be attracted to even the smartest of the smart standalone shooters, at least in big enough numbers

I am only one but I'm fairly broad, do I count double?

---------- Post added 07-06-20 at 08:32 AM ----------

Yes, very good point. For private music listening, it's designer headphones or maybe a Bluetooth portable speaker.

But there's still a niche market for those who want to put a Japanese amplifier with British speakers in their AV room.

Millennials and later can only afford the one room, can't go making it exclusively for AV



On topic: Nikon is in dire straits, IMO. Their Z system isn't taking off as well as it should (or at least, that's what I assume since I've seen discounts far more eyebrow-raising than the Canon RF offerings or the other big players). Sony isn't in dire straits per se but they will probably have no problems shedding the camera division the moment it stops being massively profitable. Canon... they will probably tough it out somehow, I wouldn't be surprised if their long term strategy is simply to hang on until Sony drops out, then collect the users and consolidate themselves into a company fit for a smaller market à la bigger Ricoh Imaging.

The other players are either small or quirky enough to be able to maneuver themselves into low-volume brands with a loyal base, thus ending like Pentaxian kindred spirits

[Madaboutpix]

Eye focus would be nice. Faster burst rates and bigger buffers would be greatly appreciated. Faster to focus and more reliably so is greatly welcome. I don't think very many of us would need more megapixels than the 24-40mp we all have available to us now so sensors are good as is. Maybe a bit of tweaking with high-ISO's and noise (and handling of the color red LOL) but gosh we have really great sensors now. All in all we don't need much. Our prosumer and professional cameras have pretty much reached peak as far as I'm concerned, and given another generation or maybe two they will be IMO. Our desire for the next camera, even as dedicated Pentax fans, will be waning after the next round of new bodies. I can't think of much beyond what I mentioned that would tempt me.

Until then I think we should all be as encouraging as we can, support Pentax with our words, actions and dollars, right up to the point there's nothing more to gain from new camera and lenses. I can already see the writing. Mirrorless makers like Sony and Fuji are trying to be the "smart" side of photography but they won't be successful or exist long-term. There was no pure love of the art behind the moneymen so when the profit drops below a certain level they'll bail. They're going to run over by ever better smartphones no matter what they do. There's just not enough market for a smart camera when we all have smartphones that will always be two steps ahead on the look-how-fast-and-easy-this-is train. With all the lenses and even older film cameras we Pentax users have at hand we're in a far better position than some others and for that I'm thankful. We can lean on existing Pentax stuff for another few decades.

So give me the penultimate Pentax crop and follow it up with an even more capable full-frame and I'll be happy for the rest of my photography days. Go out with a bang Pentax! We're going to be that niche of dedicated pros and dedicated hobbyists, no stopping that. Our numbers won't be expanding nor will Canon's or Sony's or any other camera manufacturer BUT...

Personally, I don't see much need for elegies on the Pentax system yet. In my experience, you still see more-than-incremental progress in midrange-to-flagship DSLR bodies if you are prepared to skip one or two iterations before you pick up the next model. I certainly felt that way about transitioning from the K-7 to the K-3, and the little we know about the K-new so far is nearly enough to make me want it as my next DSLR. And the K-new, in turn, needn't be the last word on the DSLR either, especially if Ricoh continues to prudently position Pentax as an excellent-product-with-character niche brand.

[JohnX]

To those who have enlightened me - thank you!

I am suitably enlightened!

Note to self; check which subforum a post is in before commenting.

[ThorSanchez]

I can already see the writing. Mirrorless makers like Sony and Fuji are trying to be the "smart" side of photography but they won't be successful or exist long-term. There was no pure love of the art behind the moneymen so when the profit drops below a certain level they'll bail. They're going to run over by ever better smartphones no matter what they do. There's just not enough market for a smart camera when we all have smartphones that will always be two steps ahead on the look-how-fast-and-easy-this-is train.

I think there will continue to be a market for ILCs, both DSLR and mirrorless, for quite a long while. Because there are plenty of applications where a bigger sensor and interchangeable lenses will crush even the best smartphone. For example, today's smartphones don't even try to give you a good image of a bird or a deer or an athlete 100m away. Even with multi-camera phones that have telephoto-ish lenses and multi-frame blending, the ability to capture enough light for a fast-moving subject a long way away will be very limited.

Not only that, but some company will make their ILCs smarter, with more computational features and better connectivity and better interfaces and ergonomics to use these features. To some degree most of the manufacturers are already dabbling in this, and it will have some kind of market. I will be very surprised if we end up in a place where it's 98% smartphones and 2% traditional DSLRs that basically stopped innovating in ~2023 because nobody needs anything beyond that.