40,000 doesn’t look much but I don’t see reason to despair about this.
- It was a time when no significant Pentax DSLRs were released, a few years earlier the K-1 was released and by the end of November the K-new should be on the market.
- Because they are focusing on ILC cameras, they are missing both of Ricoh’s success stories in that time frame - the GR III and the Theta cameras. Just prior to COVID-19, Ricoh Imaging executives were talking about increased profitability for the first time in years, but that story is missed.
- If you are a customer who takes comfort in being with the most popular brand, you are not going to be using Pentax anyway. Customers with that mentality left years ago.
- Pentax marketing seems more confident and open these days. We have had video presentations on their philosophy, future lenses and a future camera. I’m guessing that the GR success allowed them to green light some other Pentax products.
- The “Why does Pentax bother?” comments are just silly. They are a camera maker. That’s why they bother. They have customers and employees who rely on them. Do you expect them to just pack up and sign on to “Hallo Work” (the cutely-named Japanese unemployment office)?
To me the most interesting thing here is the huge opportunity implied in the statistics. Let’s say the K-new is a great camera with some new DSLR-specific innovation (i.e. features that are usable through the OVF rather than forcing the user into live view). Let’s say a full frame version follows a year after. Let’s say Ricoh continues to add 2-3 lenses each year. In the meantime, Canon and Nikon just port over live view features from their mirrorless cameras in future models, ignoring the OVF experience. They put all their lens efforts into building the R and Z lines. This would make Pentax look like the brand of choice for those with a preference for OVFs.
In this scenario, I’m sure that most customers will eventually be moved over to a mirrorless camera fo their existing brand or another. Some others will just stay using their existing mount, even if the updates Canon and Nikon make to the system are minimal. However, if Ricoh can convince just 1% of them to try a Pentax, that would double their unit volume.
Whether this happens is largely dependent on how good the K-new is. It’s a ground-up redesign of the DSLR, and it’s probably going to be announced in about a month. So at this time, I feel that optimism is a more appropriate response than worrying about past market share.
Last edited by JPT; 09-20-2020 at 12:49 AM.