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03-12-2021, 01:18 PM - 1 Like   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by texandrews Quote
"(...)

One thing I (and I think "we" is also applicable here) believe strongly is that Pentax is too Japanese-centric.
In their marketing and communication, definitely. Sales wise, not so much: Ricoh Imaging sold around 40,000 Pentax-branded DSLRs in 2019, of which around 7,000 in Japan.

03-12-2021, 01:19 PM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by texandrews Quote
the Oly numbers look suspect to me especially. I could be wrong.
Whats suspect?Oly have occupied 2nd position in Japan up until the covid year.
03-12-2021, 01:25 PM - 1 Like   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by mtgmansf Quote
What compact cameras does Nikon still sell? I thought they got out of that market years ago.
(...)
Waterproof cameras (W series) and cameras with megazoom (A, B and P series).

QuoteOriginally posted by mtgmansf Quote
(...)
Also, I read somewhere that Pentax had 4% overall share of world market (...) Hopefully, the K3 mk.III will increase the DSLR numbers significantly in the near future, when and if...
Much less: less than 1% of the DSLR market (units sold).

The K-3 Mark III will hopefully be a big success but it's too expensive a camera to have a significant impact on the number of units sold. On revenue, definitely.
03-12-2021, 02:27 PM - 1 Like   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Mirrorless cameras:
Sony: 27.4%
Canon: 23.8%
Olympus / OM Digital Solutions: 23.4%
Fujifilm: 12%
Panasonic: 8.3%
Nikon: 4.6%
Canon and Nikon FF mirrorless sales combined exceed Sony's. About 2 years ago those sales were Sony's.

Worse, the E mount is open and Sigma and Tamron are taking lens sales.

Sony needed them in the beginning to fill out the line up and now it is working against them.

Sony played a short disruptive game for profit, now the camera makers have caught up with better ergonomics and interfaces.

Sony is Doomed, Doomed I say.

Give it 2 years.

03-12-2021, 04:43 PM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
Mirrorless cameras:
  1. Sony: 27.4%
  2. Canon: 23.8%
  3. Olympus / OM Digital Solutions: 23.4%
  4. Fujifilm: 12%
  5. Panasonic: 8.3%
  6. Nikon: 4.6%

Compact cameras:
  1. Canon: 39.1%
  2. Sony: 19.6%
  3. Panasonic: 11.4%
  4. Nikon: 10.5%
  5. Ricoh Imaging: 7.1%

DSLRs:
  1. Canon: 51.9%
  2. Nikon: 44.8%
  3. Ricoh Imaging (Pentax): 3%
I too am surprised about the Nikon mirrorless numbers. By all accounts their mirrorless cameras are pretty good.

It also surprises me that a company with 23.4% of the mirrorless market (Oly) can't make a sufficient profit to stay in the business.

---------- Post added 13-03-21 at 10:47 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Kevin B123 Quote

Sony is Doomed, Doomed I say.

Give it 2 years.
I doubt that. Sony have very deep pockets, and a strong drive to dominate the market.
03-12-2021, 04:57 PM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by surfar Quote
Whats suspect?Oly have occupied 2nd position in Japan up until the covid year.
I meant suspect in that these are Japanese numbers. I'd be surprised if these numbers carried over to the rest of the world---is what I meant. The Japanese market is very different.
03-12-2021, 05:02 PM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by Mistral75 Quote
In their marketing and communication, definitely. Sales wise, not so much: Ricoh Imaging sold around 40,000 Pentax-branded DSLRs in 2019, of which around 7,000 in Japan.
So, less than 20% of their sales. Maybe if they did better marketing outside of Japan (like doing release videos in some languages besides Japanese, for instance---and getting people who speak those languages more fluently...) the disparity might be even greater, probably much greater.
03-12-2021, 05:12 PM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by texandrews Quote
The Japanese market is very different.
It seems to be.

03-12-2021, 06:18 PM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kevin B123 Quote
Sony is Doomed, Doomed I say.

Give it 2 years.
Let's hope not because they make the sensors that go into Pentax, Nikon and other cameras.

They could leave the camera business and make good profits just selling sensors.

I think Canon and Sony are the last to go. Everyone else is up for grabs!
03-12-2021, 07:52 PM   #25
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Pentax is DOOMED! Got FA 135 2.8 via FedEx from Japan today. DOOMED!
03-12-2021, 08:05 PM - 5 Likes   #26
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I don't want to waste too much time responding to this, but I'll just mention a few points I've mentioned before.
- Quite a lot of the electronics shops that BCN Ranking counts when referring ti their coverage of the electronics market don't sell cameras at all.
- Of those, most don't sell Pentax Cameras (might sell the WG series. The notable exception is the Bic Camera group, which does and that's where I guess most of the 3% is coming from.
- The shops that sell other brads are overwhelmingly selling the low-end and discount stuff. Just to look at the current BCN ranking for ULC cameras, the top ten is:

1st - Nikon D5600 double lens kit
2nd - Sony a6400 black double lens kit
3rd - Canon Kiss X10 double lens kit
4th - Nikon D3500 double lens kit
5th - Canon Kiss M white double lens kit
6th - Sony a6400 white double lens kit
7th - Canon Kiss M black double lens kit
8th - Fujifilm X-A5 brown lens kit
9th - Fujifilm X-A5 silver lens kit
10th - Nikon D5600 18-55 Kit

This gives you an idea of the kind of customer that makes up these ranking results. All you can tell from this is that Pentax customers don't buy their camera from shops that don't sell Pentax.

My guess is that the real picture is Pentax's share of DSLRs is up this year, but that is only because the other brands are selling far fewer. The absolute number they are selling is less than ever because of COVID and the fact that they haven't had a big product release. Meanwhile, the GR III has been doing better than expected ever since it was released, so as a company they are probably not doing that much worse or better that normal.

Edit: As a postscript, I see that some websites are pointing out Nikon's 4.5% mirrorless market share in this report. Again, that is to be expected because they don't have a low-end model to compete with the cameras in the list above. I'm sure they will have one soon. PetaPixel seems to think the Z9 will be their savior. Well, it might help them to appeal to high-end users, but it's hardly going to help them in the BCN Ranking, is it?

Last edited by JPT; 03-12-2021 at 09:00 PM.
03-13-2021, 02:09 AM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by texandrews Quote
I meant suspect in that these are Japanese numbers. I'd be surprised if these numbers carried over to the rest of the world---is what I meant. The Japanese market is very different.
According to their financial reporting, Olympus sold 210,000 mirrorless cameras in 2020 (calendar year). That's 7.2% of the global mirrorless market, as measured by shipments reported by CIPA.
03-13-2021, 02:15 AM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by JPT Quote
(...)

My guess is that the real picture is Pentax's share of DSLRs is up this year, but that is only because the other brands are selling far fewer. The absolute number they are selling is less than ever because of COVID and the fact that they haven't had a big product release. (...)
According to BCN ranking, Pentax's share of the Japanese DSLR market went up from 2.4% en 2019 to 3% in 2020. In absolute numbers it would mean they went down from around 7,000 cameras sold in Japan in 2019 to around 3,500 in 2020.

Even if the numbers aren't 100% accurate due to the biases you mentioned in your post the trends are clear and confirm your guess.

Last edited by Mistral75; 03-13-2021 at 02:27 AM.
03-13-2021, 02:44 AM   #29
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Pentax market-share is quite significant, but not visible in market research numbers, because most Pentax sales happen online. If Pentax market share is measured from my local shops, it would be zero (0%), of course it's not 0%, it's much more than 0% but not visible.
03-13-2021, 03:52 AM   #30
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I think there are a few things that stand out to me.

Market share isn't enough. Obviously Olympus is selling some cameras, both in Japan and worldwide. It doesn't really tell you much about them. The important thing is to actually turn a profit on the cameras you sell and my guess is that Olympus and Nikon both are not doing that (yet).

Market share is driven by low end (priced) cameras. Since in this sort of a ranking a 500 dollar camera counts the same as a 5000 dollar camera, those brands that have a robust entry level camera game will look better. I don't know that those cameras help the bottom line a whole lot, except as a gateway for photographers who will eventually purchase higher end camera gear.

Releasing an MILC is not a panacea. Nikon put a lot of money into new cameras and lenses for their Z mount cameras and it just hasn't caught on in the way I am sure they had hoped. It doesn't mean they are bad cameras or that later this year they will catch on more as the economy recovers, but it is a really crowded market place and standing out versus all of the other players is amazingly hard.

From Pentax's standpoint I think the only thing we can say is that they need some new releases. Probably at this point every camera needs a sequel. Obviously the K-3 III is coming very soon, but the 645z, K-70, and K-1 II all could benefit from a follow up. We know that new camera sales are driven by new gear and Pentax just hasn't had much of that. If they want more units sold, the K-70 is the camera to replace -- just put everything in it they can for a 600 dollar price tag and get it out the door.

Anyway, those are my thought (I'm not a particularly business-savvy person so take them for what they are worth).

---------- Post added 03-13-21 at 05:57 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by btnapa Quote
Let's hope not because they make the sensors that go into Pentax, Nikon and other cameras.

They could leave the camera business and make good profits just selling sensors.

I think Canon and Sony are the last to go. Everyone else is up for grabs!
I think Canon is going to eat Sony's lunch. That doesn't mean Sony is going away, but I think that Sony is good at making gadgets and Canon is good at making cameras and the end result is that photographers are preferring Canon's products.

As to the sensors, as far as I know Sony's sensors are made by a spun off company Sony Semiconductor Solutions, which is completely separate from the camera company. They will certainly continue to turn out sensors, even if the ILC portion of the company falls on hard times.
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