Nikon: again abysmal sales and forecasting to shrink in a growing market

**StiffLegged** · 05-13-2021, 11:10 PM - **3 Likes**

Come on guys, is no-one going to use the D word? None of the industry and financial pundits fancy the D word?? This just isn’t a proper internet state-of-the-business discussion without the D word!

**clackers** · 05-13-2021, 11:35 PM

Originally posted by pentaxus

It seems like a lot of the photo business is becoming a niche market.

Indeed!

Nikon pretty much say in their financials they're going to disregard anyone but pros and prosumers.

That's honesty for you. Refreshingly honest is them also reporting how many cameras and lenses they sell, even when the numbers are shocking. Other companies are super reluctant to do this ... try to get any sort of financials from Panasonic!

They state their challenge is to transition from being a mass seller of cameras to a more niche one. The goal is to somehow turn a profit even when camera and lens revenue falls lower than 150 billion yen annually - it was 300 billion just two years before.

Ricoh Imaging saw all of this coming. As Mee points out, they did a lot of the necessary changes a long time ago, and they've operated on low revenues and low costs for a while now. Forget Pentax as the 'value' brand for savvy college students, the K-3 III is two thousand dollars!

**Rondec** · 05-14-2021, 02:25 AM

Originally posted by mee

What makes you think that? They beat their own forecast by using less sales at a higher price (they're doing what Ricoh said they were going to do too; become 'premium') and they have a glut of lenses to be released in the next 12 months [12 total on top of the 18 they already released in the past 2 years] as well as a couple more bodies. On top of 2nd gen bodies they just released in the middle of the pandemic.

I think they're still in a transitional stage from leaning 100% on DSLRs for their main consumer imaging platform to shifting to MILC. And they're conducting it in the midst of the worst global turndown in 20 years due to the pandemic and subsequent ripples from it.

My guess they'll stay at a distant number 3 and become profitable within a year, baring another (inter)national disaster and a breaking of the semiconductor shortage.

They're A rated credit and the stock has increased by 40pct since December. They have tons of cash too. The consumer camera business is just a portion of what they do. They'll be fine.

The bigger aspect no one here has mentioned is the fact that there aren't a lot of entry level bodies available retail. Those are slowly trickling out of retail availability. There needs to be a stairstepping of bodies at different prices to direct people to higher end bodies over time. Can't get them on board if your cheapest body is 800 bucks.

I see TONS of newcomers in their 20s and 30s who proudly show off their new D3400 or D5600 body in certain places online. Their first dedicated camera. They only came on board because those are at an affordable price. If most of the camera brands are pushing premium or upscale products and pricing, they're going to have a more difficult challenge at getting customers imo.

Supposedly a lower end crop body is coming out for the Z lineup soon. But I really just think they need to make a 2nd gen Z50 and push the 1st gen to a lower price point.

The lenses are generally supreme quality optically but are bigger and more expensive than counterparts. Tested the Z 50mm f/1.8 S is actually sharper than the Sigma ART 50mm f/1.4 stopped down to f/1.8! So Nikon is bringing the A game to the new Z lineup. But it's just going to take time for people on DSLRs to adopt this new system. I think that happens in the next year as the pandemic wanes and people get back to formerly normal life. But it could take longer than that.

Apparently you didn't read what I wrote. I said that I expected Nikon to right the ship but have a smaller piece of the market from the past. There's no reason to get upset about it. It's clear that whether it was the pandemic, economic softness, or Nikon's Z mount products, Nikon's haven't sold as well this last year as Canon and Sony's have.

I just don't expect Nikon to suddenly leap frog Sony or Canon for a solid #2 market share like they used to have, even if they release a new APS-C Z mount camera. It isn't saying that Nikon cameras are bad cameras (they aren't) or their lenses aren't sharp (I'm sure they are plenty sharp). They just haven't caught on the way Nikon had hoped.

**Michail_P** · 05-14-2021, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by jatrax

Never thought I would be more worried about Nikon than Pentax.............

That' s also what I thought. It's really a sad fact though, as many have shown extreme loyalty to Nikon. And competition should be always present so every brand is pushing their development forward...

mee · 05-14-2021, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by Rondec

Apparently you didn't read what I wrote. I said that I expected Nikon to right the ship but have a smaller piece of the market from the past. There's no reason to get upset about it. It's clear that whether it was the pandemic, economic softness, or Nikon's Z mount products, Nikon's haven't sold as well this last year as Canon and Sony's have.

I just don't expect Nikon to suddenly leap frog Sony or Canon for a solid #2 market share like they used to have, even if they release a new APS-C Z mount camera. It isn't saying that Nikon cameras are bad cameras (they aren't) or their lenses aren't sharp (I'm sure they are plenty sharp). They just haven't caught on the way Nikon had hoped.

Don't get rude. I did read what you wrote, hence why I responded. My comment was what you said just after that:

Originally posted by Rondec

but I do have a feeling that the company itself is going to be a lot smaller with a lot thinner piece of the ILC pie. Certainly not a company I would buy stock from right now.

There's no reason to assume they're going to shrink further in the market space. Nikon doesn't seem to be too concerned about being 1 or 2 in the market so that's a non issue. They seem to be happy in a 3 slot (that they're currently in) if/when they can get profitable, which I think will be in the upcoming FY. The ER says the Z system has caught on the way they hoped. There are actual shortages of 2nd gen Z bodies 6 months after launch. They can't keep them in stock. To the point it looks like they are deprecating many F mount lenses. The plan seems to be to transition to Z mount more fully sooner than later. The ER lays that out that the company beat their gloomy estimates for the previous quarter due to the strong Z body sales last quarter.

And the share price has actually INCREASED by 40 pct in that time frame.

beholder3 · 05-14-2021, 08:58 AM

It is interesting to compare current figures with previous investor relations statements from Nikon.

Current they forecast: Nikon ILC market share 12,9%.

In 2013 they wanted:

Quote:

Nikon's DSLR market share target: 40-45%.
Nikon's mirrorless market share target: 25-30%.
(All by March 2016.)

Nikon's 2013 Annual Report | DSLRBodies | Thom Hogan

**StiffLegged** · 05-14-2021, 09:53 AM - **1 Like**

And this is 2021: eight years on. Since you quote Thom Hogan from 2013, you might find his comments on Nikon this week interesting. There’s more than one article.

News/Views | Cameras and Photography Explained | Thom Hogan

aaacb · 05-14-2021, 10:19 AM

I'm kind of surprised that exactly the systems I'm interested in sell less

Currently Pentax K1ii and m43 fulfill all my needs, but Nikon Z would be a top contender (as F apsc was when I picked my first Pentax, the k3ii).

**boriscleto** · 05-14-2021, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by StiffLegged

And this is 2021: eight years on. Since you quote Thom Hogan from 2013, you might find his comments on Nikon this week interesting. There’s more than one article.

News/Views | Cameras and Photography Explained | Thom Hogan

Well, at least he knows his readership doesn't include Pentax users.

**ffking** · 05-14-2021, 10:40 AM

As I see it, MILCs really started with Sony and the market is tech lead - FF has become a tech battle between Sony and Canon. Fuji stays out of FF and offers something else - retro looks and nice little lenses - Nikon is a bit like Pentax in that they want to offer people classic camera values, but that's not here the MILC market is right now. I do feel for them because they are faced with a choice between sales and remaining true to their values - which I happen to think are the right values (and there was I time when I'd never have heard myself say that!)

**StiffLegged** · 05-14-2021, 10:52 AM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by boriscleto

Well, at least he knows his readership doesn't include Pentax users.

However would he know that? I read his site for interest and have seen others here refer to it.

**Serkevan** · 05-14-2021, 12:06 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by mee

And the share price has actually INCREASED by 40 pct in that time frame.

Yeah, because more or less everything has rallied lately. However, it's still about half of what it was when they jumped into mirrorless.

Canon has increased about 60% since December, by the way. So I'd go with them instead of Nikon

.

mee · 05-14-2021, 12:19 PM

Originally posted by Serkevan

Yeah, because more or less everything has rallied lately. However, it's still about half of what it was when they jumped into mirrorless.

Canon has increased about 60% since December, by the way. So I'd go with them instead of Nikon

.

Fair. Yet the decline has, for the time, halted with Nikon. And I think they'll go up from here, barring another (inter)national disaster. Their biggest issues were spending tons of money on R&D for an entirely new camera system and marketing that system. Then Covid affects on both manufacturing and selling of products to distributors and retailers. At the same time they were sized for 2010 level camera sales so they closed a lot of local support and have been right sizing to the current market environment.

Pentax did the same thing just years sooner.

Oh and Gamestop increased 1200% so I went with them instead for that period.

**Serkevan** · 05-14-2021, 12:23 PM - **1 Like**

Originally posted by mee

Fair. Yet the decline has, for the time, halted with Nikon. And I think they'll go up from here, barring another (inter)national disaster.

Gamestop increased 1200% so I went with them instead for that period.

Yeah, it was mostly to say that stock prices aren't the best metric of a company's health... just look at Gamestop

.

Personally, I think Nikon will be fine, as it seems that they are willing to accept, at least for a while, that they are going to be a smaller company than they once were. Like Canon, they grew up to bubble levels and now they have to maneuver the descent (like Ricoh did with Pentax).

EDIT: I see your edit is basically the same thing as my post. Yay there :P
Yeah, Covid made the downsizing MUCH harder for everyone.

mee · 05-14-2021, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by Serkevan

Yeah, it was mostly to say that stock prices aren't the best metric of a company's health... just look at Gamestop

.

Personally, I think Nikon will be fine, as it seems that they are willing to accept, at least for a while, that they are going to be a smaller company than they once were. Like Canon, they grew up to bubble levels and now they have to maneuver the descent (like Ricoh did with Pentax).

EDIT: I see your edit is basically the same thing as my post. Yay there :P
Yeah, Covid made the downsizing MUCH harder for everyone.

haha I didn't say I hold long term.

Just in and out to take profits on easy gains. Frankly I wouldn't hold any camera oriented company long term. Way too many more profitable ventures out there.

"Bubble level" is an accurate way of putting it. Which is why no one should be pointing at the 2007-2015 era market and making that a baseline for what is the normal level of sales. It wasn't. It was a total bubble.

Go back to 1985 if one wants to see what normal sales are for photographic ILC equipment. Well before digital and status symbols. When it was less trend and more serious interest in the field.

05-13-2021, 11:35 PM	#17
clackers Otis Memorial Pentaxian Join Date: Jul 2013 Location: Melbourne Photos: Albums Posts: 16,397	Originally posted by pentaxus It seems like a lot of the photo business is becoming a niche market. Indeed! Nikon pretty much say in their financials they're going to disregard anyone but pros and prosumers. That's honesty for you. Refreshingly honest is them also reporting how many cameras and lenses they sell, even when the numbers are shocking. Other companies are super reluctant to do this ... try to get any sort of financials from Panasonic! They state their challenge is to transition from being a mass seller of cameras to a more niche one. The goal is to somehow turn a profit even when camera and lens revenue falls lower than 150 billion yen annually - it was 300 billion just two years before. Ricoh Imaging saw all of this coming. As Mee points out, they did a lot of the necessary changes a long time ago, and they've operated on low revenues and low costs for a while now. Forget Pentax as the 'value' brand for savvy college students, the K-3 III is two thousand dollars! Last edited by clackers; 05-13-2021 at 11:41 PM.

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05-13-2021, 11:10 PM - 3 Likes	#16
StiffLegged Site Supporter Join Date: Jan 2018 Photos: Gallery Posts: 4,620	Come on guys, is no-one going to use the D word? None of the industry and financial pundits fancy the D word?? This just isn’t a proper internet state-of-the-business discussion without the D word!

05-14-2021, 02:25 AM	#18
Rondec Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Gladys, Virginia Photos: Gallery Posts: 27,653	Originally posted by mee What makes you think that? They beat their own forecast by using less sales at a higher price (they're doing what Ricoh said they were going to do too; become 'premium') and they have a glut of lenses to be released in the next 12 months [12 total on top of the 18 they already released in the past 2 years] as well as a couple more bodies. On top of 2nd gen bodies they just released in the middle of the pandemic. I think they're still in a transitional stage from leaning 100% on DSLRs for their main consumer imaging platform to shifting to MILC. And they're conducting it in the midst of the worst global turndown in 20 years due to the pandemic and subsequent ripples from it. My guess they'll stay at a distant number 3 and become profitable within a year, baring another (inter)national disaster and a breaking of the semiconductor shortage. They're A rated credit and the stock has increased by 40pct since December. They have tons of cash too. The consumer camera business is just a portion of what they do. They'll be fine. The bigger aspect no one here has mentioned is the fact that there aren't a lot of entry level bodies available retail. Those are slowly trickling out of retail availability. There needs to be a stairstepping of bodies at different prices to direct people to higher end bodies over time. Can't get them on board if your cheapest body is 800 bucks. I see TONS of newcomers in their 20s and 30s who proudly show off their new D3400 or D5600 body in certain places online. Their first dedicated camera. They only came on board because those are at an affordable price. If most of the camera brands are pushing premium or upscale products and pricing, they're going to have a more difficult challenge at getting customers imo. Supposedly a lower end crop body is coming out for the Z lineup soon. But I really just think they need to make a 2nd gen Z50 and push the 1st gen to a lower price point. The lenses are generally supreme quality optically but are bigger and more expensive than counterparts. Tested the Z 50mm f/1.8 S is actually sharper than the Sigma ART 50mm f/1.4 stopped down to f/1.8! So Nikon is bringing the A game to the new Z lineup. But it's just going to take time for people on DSLRs to adopt this new system. I think that happens in the next year as the pandemic wanes and people get back to formerly normal life. But it could take longer than that. Apparently you didn't read what I wrote. I said that I expected Nikon to right the ship but have a smaller piece of the market from the past. There's no reason to get upset about it. It's clear that whether it was the pandemic, economic softness, or Nikon's Z mount products, Nikon's haven't sold as well this last year as Canon and Sony's have. I just don't expect Nikon to suddenly leap frog Sony or Canon for a solid #2 market share like they used to have, even if they release a new APS-C Z mount camera. It isn't saying that Nikon cameras are bad cameras (they aren't) or their lenses aren't sharp (I'm sure they are plenty sharp). They just haven't caught on the way Nikon had hoped.

05-14-2021, 03:24 AM	#19
Michail_P Site Supporter Join Date: Nov 2019 Location: Kalymnos Photos: Gallery Posts: 3,006	Originally posted by jatrax Never thought I would be more worried about Nikon than Pentax............. That' s also what I thought. It's really a sad fact though, as many have shown extreme loyalty to Nikon. And competition should be always present so every brand is pushing their development forward...

05-14-2021, 07:38 AM	#20
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by Rondec Apparently you didn't read what I wrote. I said that I expected Nikon to right the ship but have a smaller piece of the market from the past. There's no reason to get upset about it. It's clear that whether it was the pandemic, economic softness, or Nikon's Z mount products, Nikon's haven't sold as well this last year as Canon and Sony's have. I just don't expect Nikon to suddenly leap frog Sony or Canon for a solid #2 market share like they used to have, even if they release a new APS-C Z mount camera. It isn't saying that Nikon cameras are bad cameras (they aren't) or their lenses aren't sharp (I'm sure they are plenty sharp). They just haven't caught on the way Nikon had hoped. Don't get rude. I did read what you wrote, hence why I responded. My comment was what you said just after that: Originally posted by Rondec but I do have a feeling that the company itself is going to be a lot smaller with a lot thinner piece of the ILC pie. Certainly not a company I would buy stock from right now. There's no reason to assume they're going to shrink further in the market space. Nikon doesn't seem to be too concerned about being 1 or 2 in the market so that's a non issue. They seem to be happy in a 3 slot (that they're currently in) if/when they can get profitable, which I think will be in the upcoming FY. The ER says the Z system has caught on the way they hoped. There are actual shortages of 2nd gen Z bodies 6 months after launch. They can't keep them in stock. To the point it looks like they are deprecating many F mount lenses. The plan seems to be to transition to Z mount more fully sooner than later. The ER lays that out that the company beat their gloomy estimates for the previous quarter due to the strong Z body sales last quarter. And the share price has actually INCREASED by 40 pct in that time frame.

05-14-2021, 08:58 AM	#21
beholder3 Pentaxian Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 3,112 Original Poster	It is interesting to compare current figures with previous investor relations statements from Nikon. Current they forecast: Nikon ILC market share 12,9%. In 2013 they wanted: Quote: Nikon's DSLR market share target: 40-45%. Nikon's mirrorless market share target: 25-30%. (All by March 2016.) Nikon's 2013 Annual Report \| DSLRBodies \| Thom Hogan

05-14-2021, 09:53 AM - 1 Like	#22
StiffLegged Site Supporter Join Date: Jan 2018 Photos: Gallery Posts: 4,620	And this is 2021: eight years on. Since you quote Thom Hogan from 2013, you might find his comments on Nikon this week interesting. There’s more than one article. News/Views \| Cameras and Photography Explained \| Thom Hogan

05-14-2021, 10:19 AM	#23
aaacb Pentaxian Join Date: May 2016 Photos: Gallery Posts: 3,725	I'm kind of surprised that exactly the systems I'm interested in sell less Currently Pentax K1ii and m43 fulfill all my needs, but Nikon Z would be a top contender (as F apsc was when I picked my first Pentax, the k3ii).

05-14-2021, 10:26 AM	#24
boriscleto Loyal Site Supporter Join Date: Dec 2009 Location: North Syracuse, NY Photos: Gallery Posts: 16,475	Originally posted by StiffLegged And this is 2021: eight years on. Since you quote Thom Hogan from 2013, you might find his comments on Nikon this week interesting. There’s more than one article. News/Views \| Cameras and Photography Explained \| Thom Hogan Well, at least he knows his readership doesn't include Pentax users.

05-14-2021, 10:40 AM	#25
ffking Site Supporter Join Date: Nov 2015 Location: Old South Wales Posts: 6,038	As I see it, MILCs really started with Sony and the market is tech lead - FF has become a tech battle between Sony and Canon. Fuji stays out of FF and offers something else - retro looks and nice little lenses - Nikon is a bit like Pentax in that they want to offer people classic camera values, but that's not here the MILC market is right now. I do feel for them because they are faced with a choice between sales and remaining true to their values - which I happen to think are the right values (and there was I time when I'd never have heard myself say that!)

05-14-2021, 10:52 AM - 1 Like	#26
StiffLegged Site Supporter Join Date: Jan 2018 Photos: Gallery Posts: 4,620	Originally posted by boriscleto Well, at least he knows his readership doesn't include Pentax users. However would he know that? I read his site for interest and have seen others here refer to it.

05-14-2021, 12:06 PM - 1 Like	#27
Serkevan Site Supporter Join Date: May 2019 Photos: Albums Posts: 5,976	Originally posted by mee And the share price has actually INCREASED by 40 pct in that time frame. Yeah, because more or less everything has rallied lately. However, it's still about half of what it was when they jumped into mirrorless. Canon has increased about 60% since December, by the way. So I'd go with them instead of Nikon .

05-14-2021, 12:19 PM	#28
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by Serkevan Yeah, because more or less everything has rallied lately. However, it's still about half of what it was when they jumped into mirrorless. Canon has increased about 60% since December, by the way. So I'd go with them instead of Nikon . Fair. Yet the decline has, for the time, halted with Nikon. And I think they'll go up from here, barring another (inter)national disaster. Their biggest issues were spending tons of money on R&D for an entirely new camera system and marketing that system. Then Covid affects on both manufacturing and selling of products to distributors and retailers. At the same time they were sized for 2010 level camera sales so they closed a lot of local support and have been right sizing to the current market environment. Pentax did the same thing just years sooner. Oh and Gamestop increased 1200% so I went with them instead for that period.

05-14-2021, 12:23 PM - 1 Like	#29
Serkevan Site Supporter Join Date: May 2019 Photos: Albums Posts: 5,976	Originally posted by mee Fair. Yet the decline has, for the time, halted with Nikon. And I think they'll go up from here, barring another (inter)national disaster. Gamestop increased 1200% so I went with them instead for that period. Yeah, it was mostly to say that stock prices aren't the best metric of a company's health... just look at Gamestop . Personally, I think Nikon will be fine, as it seems that they are willing to accept, at least for a while, that they are going to be a smaller company than they once were. Like Canon, they grew up to bubble levels and now they have to maneuver the descent (like Ricoh did with Pentax). EDIT: I see your edit is basically the same thing as my post. Yay there :P Yeah, Covid made the downsizing MUCH harder for everyone.

05-14-2021, 12:34 PM	#30
mee Veteran Member Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 7,403	Originally posted by Serkevan Yeah, it was mostly to say that stock prices aren't the best metric of a company's health... just look at Gamestop . Personally, I think Nikon will be fine, as it seems that they are willing to accept, at least for a while, that they are going to be a smaller company than they once were. Like Canon, they grew up to bubble levels and now they have to maneuver the descent (like Ricoh did with Pentax). EDIT: I see your edit is basically the same thing as my post. Yay there :P Yeah, Covid made the downsizing MUCH harder for everyone. haha I didn't say I hold long term. Just in and out to take profits on easy gains. Frankly I wouldn't hold any camera oriented company long term. Way too many more profitable ventures out there. "Bubble level" is an accurate way of putting it. Which is why no one should be pointing at the 2007-2015 era market and making that a baseline for what is the normal level of sales. It wasn't. It was a total bubble. Go back to 1985 if one wants to see what normal sales are for photographic ILC equipment. Well before digital and status symbols. When it was less trend and more serious interest in the field.