[boriscleto]

However would he know that? I read his site for interest and have seen others here refer to it.

Lately I’ve been getting a lot of feedback that centers around what I’d call the perception of a camera company. More than usual. It seems to be the “new complaint.”

I’m going to use Nikon in this example, but I see similar messages from Canon, Fujifilm, Olympus, Panasonic, and Sony users with slightly different complaints.

[StiffLegged]

I read it, don't have to email him: it's called lurking. Hey, I bet there are the odd Canon users who read this site; for the educated and witty conversation, of course.

[beholder3]

To see the big picture some graphs:




And their market share:

[mee]

From the PDF linked by the OP:

-Sales volumes down substantially on market shrinkage and the impact of COVID-19. Higher ASP on shift to models for pro/hobbyist.

⁃Revenue surpassed by mirrorless sales volumes growth in both camera bodies and lenses with mirrorless lineup expanded to 6 camera models and 18 lenses.

⁃Q4 sustained momentum from Q3. We continue to see strong sales in our new mirrorless products Z 6II and Z 7II, coupled with a continued recovery in the camera market.

What Is Average Selling Price (ASP)?

The term average selling price (ASP) refers to the price at which a certain class of good or service is typically sold

Nikon spell it out:


They sold less cameras over all, due to a decline in DSLR and compact sales.


However, strong MILC sales priced at a higher average selling price helped them beat their revenue estimate. And the trend is only going to continue upward as the overall health of the market increases (as the overall health of society increases from less COVID affects).

[biz-engineer]

It seems like a lot of the photo business is becoming a niche market.

The expectations and value of photographs aren't very high these days. It came to a point where the photos taken by a full time professional using a 8x10 film camera (to photograph the wedding of my grand parents around 1920) was replaced by a smartphone snapshot instantly posted online, instantly forgotten, never will see a sheet of photographic paper, eventually will get lost after the purchase of the next smartphone model.

[Pål Jensen]

So we are back to pre digital boom levels.Pretty much as could be expected...
Seems it was not such a good idea for Nikon to convert itself into a mass marked manufacturer. In the 70's Nikon was the smallest of the five major SLR manufacturers. Now they have to transform themself into what they once was.....

[mee]

. In the 70's Nikon was the smallest of the five major SLR manufacturers. Now they have to transform themself into what they once was.....

Wouldn't that crown be worn by Pentax? Nikon dropped from 2nd to 3rd. I doubt they're going to 5th spot, if it even matters in the bigger scheme of things.

[aaacb]

Seems it was not such a good idea for Nikon to convert itself into a mass marked manufacturer. In the 70's Nikon was the smallest of the five major SLR manufacturers. Now they have to transform themself into what they once was.....

As a company, why necessarily a bad idea? Fire people, sell equipment that's already been amortized, and move on. The company made money when there was a market for commodity digital cameras, and they have a solid brand. For the employees it's a different story, though maybe other industries need the same skills.

[biz-engineer]

So we are back to pre digital boom levels.Pretty much as could be expected...

Too much camera sales are achieved by hard marketing push (see DPReview style), rather than camera sales coming indirectly from the practice of photography activity. When I cross the door of camera shop, nobody ask me any question about what type of photography I do, and there no advice, but always trying to sell me the latest model from Sony, Fuji, Canon whatever. It looks like photography is only about money and not about graphical arts. Sustaining camera business long term doesn't work that way of trying to sell more camera gear all the time, people don't see the point and get bored. Long term camera business comes from teaching younger generations photography, offering affordable photography workshops and more sales will come by having more people genuinely interested in photography. Without nurturing the passion for photography, camera sales will continue to plunge and be replaced by mediocre camera-phones. Camera companies are way too pushy to maintain their business in the long term, this back fires on them, the more they push the less they sell.

[beholder3]

Nikon once - a long time ago - was in a position, where they were close to a customer household name. For each 1 Nikon ILC sold only little more than 1 non-Nikon ILC was sold.

Currently for 1 Nikon ILC sold 5-6 people prefer to buy elsewhere.

Nikon themselves predict for next year for 1 Nikon ILC sold, 7 potential customers will prefer to buy something else, thus relegating Nikon to one of many smallish camera makers which also ran.

They are no longer able to even remotely compete with Canon products and have lost out to Sony as well. Now they have to fight against Fuji.

A small niche player like Nikon needs a whole lot of different strategy than a big boy household name. The most important being: a solid USP.

Panasonic has carved out its leading video position. Fuji is strong on APSC, medium format hipster toys. Pentax sends the DSLR message. Canon is Canon. Sony optimizes spec sheets.


Nikon sends which message? Right. "We (Nikon) are best at nothing at all, but anyhow."

If you want to take a favorable consumer look then you could say that Nikon mirrorless products are cheaper than the competition if you wait for 6-12 months after overpriced USPs fall in line with real market values and you do not require "the best" products on spec sheets.

[Serkevan]

Nikon sends which message? Right. "We (Nikon) are best at nothing at all, but anyhow."

If you want to take a favorable consumer look then you could say that Nikon mirrorless products are cheaper than the competition if you wait for 6-12 months after overpriced USPs fall in line with real market values and you do not require "the best" products on spec sheets.

Which is ironic because I'd argue that Nikon sells what is possibly the best all-rounder DSLR ever made (the D850) and all their DSLR gear had a decades-long reputation for being tough as nails.

Their Z system however is... it is *good*, don't get me wrong. But so is everyone else's system. I've said it many times: Canon has the monster f/1.2 lenses, the 28-70/2, the f/11 cheap&light ultra teles for people who can't pay for (or carry!) the massive bazookas, and an adapter that works perfectly with every lens all the way to 1987.
Sony has, like you said, ridiculous spec sheets for gearheads, a solid lineup (they had a long headstart) and a veritable *host* of third party options. It might be a gimmick but that Laowa 9 mm does make me jealous .
Fuji has the compact, well-built APS-C MILC market down pat (and a bunch of interesting Chinese APS-C manual focus lenses supporting the system).
Nikon has a solid, well performing system with f/1.8 primes slightly better, larger and more expensive than their already-good F-mount counterparts. Ditto for the f/2.8 and f/4 zooms. The FTZ adapter doesn't have screwdrive support. APS-C again is an afterthought relegated to a kit zoom. Maybe a grand total of one prime.

It's just kind of uninspiring, from a marketing point of view... which is a shame because I feel like their Z bodies have the best ergonomics in the class, and the lenses *are* well built and have good image quality.

[Pål Jensen]

As a company, why necessarily a bad idea? Fire people, sell equipment that's already been amortized, and move on. The company made money when there was a market for commodity digital cameras, and they have a solid brand. For the employees it's a different story, though maybe other industries need the same skills.

I believe that feeding a obvious bubble was a bad idea for someone like Nikon. In the process they have diluted their brand name and are now in trouble.

---------- Post added 05-16-21 at 11:48 AM ----------

Wouldn't that crown be worn by Pentax? Nikon dropped from 2nd to 3rd. I doubt they're going to 5th spot, if it even matters in the bigger scheme of things.

I was thinking more along the lines of being a niche player catering to pros and advanced amateurs. This is where they once were when they had 90% of the 35mm pro market...

[beholder3]

It's just kind of uninspiring, from a marketing point of view...

"uninspiring" is the enemy of any USP. People do have tons of choices today, still. And if 7 out of 8 people find the answer to their needs somewhere else then you better start looking for that USP.

You can not just cater to the people who walk into a fashion store and when asked which color summer t-shirt they want, answer "grey".

Even if mirrorless bodies are much more of a rip off than already expensive DSLRs, endlessly falling monetary sales figures are just as bad as selling much fewer units.

Their own forecast for the coming year is still just pretty much a linear extension of the shrinking that they endured the last seven years.
They urgently need a trend change.

[pentaxus]

So, is Nikon more doomed than us?

[Pål Jensen]

So, is Nikon more doomed than us?

Definitely!