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05-13-2021, 12:10 PM - 2 Likes   #1
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Nikon: again abysmal sales and forecasting to shrink in a growing market

Nikon has presented worrisome figures again:
https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2021/21_all_e.pdf

  • for the next 12 months they forecast the ILC market to grow
  • at the same time they expect their sales in units to shrink further
  • same for ILC lenses (market growth / Nikon shrinkage)
They expect to have an ILC market share of 12,9% (750 out of 5800). One can wonder if that is going to fall behind Fuji's some time soon.


Similar picture to developments in the last few months:
  • versus their own Feb. 4 forecasts the actuals showed
    • the ILC market was bigger than they thought and their part in it was smaller than they thought
    • the ILC lens market was bigger than they thought and their part in it was smaller than they thought
Overall they sold pretty much half (!) as many ILC and ILC lenses as the previous year.

Out of four main business divisions they had 3 on the reds with losses and one basically with a zero (miniscule profit).

Halving sales figures in one year is catastrophic for any business, even if in a Covid year that is less rare.

05-13-2021, 12:22 PM - 2 Likes   #2
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With most of the world stuck at home, and many people fearing finical losses, even if they did not realize them, people put the brakes on purchasing. Cameras for most are a luxury item and one often associated with travel. I wonder how supply chain disruptions are going to effect future sales?

Jim
05-13-2021, 12:31 PM - 2 Likes   #3
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Never thought I would be more worried about Nikon than Pentax.............
05-13-2021, 12:38 PM - 3 Likes   #4
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Very sad news for anyone who uses a premium camera product of whatever brand.

05-13-2021, 02:03 PM - 1 Like   #5
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QuoteOriginally posted by jatrax Quote
Never thought I would be more worried about Nikon than Pentax.............
Why would you be? They are still right sizing. Ricoh did that to Pentax several years ago and it looked very gloomy for Pentax at the time, but as you see it's fine.

Nikon has huge cash supply and is busy launching another 12 lenses for the Z system this year. So it isn't as if they are just giving up and exiting the market for a few lower ERs.



Remember Nikon is still 5 times larger than Pentax in marketshare. So it would be wrong to be worried about Nikon if you're not worried about Pentax. In the end they all find their niche and footing. Things never stay the same, but to see a downward line and assume it continues downward to 0 is silly.

Edit: btw look at the sales results on imaging -- they beat their forecast. And state "Q4 sustained momentum from Q3. We continue to see strong sales in our new mirrorless products Z 6II and Z 7II, coupled with a continued recovery in the camera market."

The bigger boat anchor was Precision equipment which was also hit from Covid19. I'd be more concerned if at this time next year they are still seeing downtrends. Right now this is nothingburger.

Last edited by mee; 05-13-2021 at 02:18 PM.
05-13-2021, 02:19 PM - 1 Like   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Nikon has presented worrisome figures again:
https://www.nikon.com/about/ir/ir_library/result/pdf/2021/21_all_e.pdf

  • for the next 12 months they forecast the ILC market to grow
  • at the same time they expect their sales in units to shrink further
  • same for ILC lenses (market growth / Nikon shrinkage)
They expect to have an ILC market share of 12,9% (750 out of 5800). One can wonder if that is going to fall behind Fuji's some time soon.


Similar picture to developments in the last few months:
  • versus their own Feb. 4 forecasts the actuals showed
    • the ILC market was bigger than they thought and their part in it was smaller than they thought
    • the ILC lens market was bigger than they thought and their part in it was smaller than they thought
Overall they sold pretty much half (!) as many ILC and ILC lenses as the previous year.

Out of four main business divisions they had 3 on the reds with losses and one basically with a zero (miniscule profit).

Halving sales figures in one year is catastrophic for any business, even if in a Covid year that is less rare.
all to be expected. I would guess all the extra cash people who are lucky to still be working will flood back into the economy when this is all over.
05-13-2021, 05:41 PM - 3 Likes   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
Why would you be?
I'm not, I was making a joke, hence the smiley..........

05-13-2021, 05:52 PM - 1 Like   #8
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Nikon is in a bit of a tough spot. N, C, and S all put out fairly similarly-specced MILC cameras, but Sony and Canon are behemoths of the industry.

Nikon Z sales are likely also hurt by D500 and D850 owners not seeing anything worth upgrading to.

Pentax seems to have realized the only winning move (survival) is to not play.
05-13-2021, 06:07 PM - 2 Likes   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by luftfluss Quote
Nikon is in a bit of a tough spot. N, C, and S all put out fairly similarly-specced MILC cameras, but Sony and Canon are behemoths of the industry.

Nikon Z sales are likely also hurt by D500 and D850 owners not seeing anything worth upgrading to.

Pentax seems to have realized the only winning move (survival) is to not play.
A lot of the industry has gambled on full frame mirrorless to get them through the declining market as phones take over for all but a minority.

Once, this was just Leica and Sony. Now there's Canon, Zeiss, Nikon, Panasonic and Sigma.

Competition means discounting, which means the whole premise - increased profits - takes a hit as the seven companies are in a cagematch.

Why should Pentax join this lot until the blood, fur and feathers have stopped flying?

Their executives would be quite right in saying, 'Look at the spreadsheet modelling, let's wait until some players are on the verge of exiting the market.'

I'm sad that Nikon may well be one of them, it's a grand optics brand every bit as old as Pentax, but their financial results are diabolical. Like Olympus, it would be hard for a bank to loan them money to do anything in the future as long as they still sold cameras.

They have really shafted their DSLR owner base - the D500 may already be out of production, and none of the new lenses work on DSLRs. But so have Canon, they've sneakily discontinued 24 EF lenses, according to Petapixel.

Last edited by clackers; 05-13-2021 at 06:42 PM.
05-13-2021, 06:19 PM - 1 Like   #10
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The MILC market is a brutal one right now. I'm just guessing that (a) Nikon users are relatively satisfied with their SLRs and don't really want to start over again and (b) Non-Nikon users are finding offerings from Sony and Canon and even the L mount more interesting.

There's no reason to gloat or feel good. My guess is that they will right the ship in the next quarter or two, but I do have a feeling that the company itself is going to be a lot smaller with a lot thinner piece of the ILC pie. Certainly not a company I would buy stock from right now.
05-13-2021, 07:24 PM   #11
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Ive recently added Nikon to my camera line up and honestly the D500 is an incredble camera..couple it with a tamron 150-600 g2 and omg..its a really sweet
And affordable combo for wildlife. I do love my pentax but after shooting nikon d200,d300,d7000,d7200 ,d7500,d500.. I sincerely hope they survive these tough times. They make some seriously good cameras.... I would be sad to see them fade away. I also am one to believe that competition drives innovation. If Pentax alone surivives as a dslr maker... we will lose out in the long Run as DSLR shooters.
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05-13-2021, 07:26 PM   #12
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
There's no reason to gloat or feel good. My guess is that they will right the ship in the next quarter or two, but I do have a feeling that the company itself is going to be a lot smaller with a lot thinner piece of the ILC pie. Certainly not a company I would buy stock from right now.
What makes you think that? They beat their own forecast by using less sales at a higher price (they're doing what Ricoh said they were going to do too; become 'premium') and they have a glut of lenses to be released in the next 12 months [12 total on top of the 18 they already released in the past 2 years] as well as a couple more bodies. On top of 2nd gen bodies they just released in the middle of the pandemic.


I think they're still in a transitional stage from leaning 100% on DSLRs for their main consumer imaging platform to shifting to MILC. And they're conducting it in the midst of the worst global turndown in 20 years due to the pandemic and subsequent ripples from it.

My guess they'll stay at a distant number 3 and become profitable within a year, baring another (inter)national disaster and a breaking of the semiconductor shortage.

They're A rated credit and the stock has increased by 40pct since December. They have tons of cash too. The consumer camera business is just a portion of what they do. They'll be fine.

The bigger aspect no one here has mentioned is the fact that there aren't a lot of entry level bodies available retail. Those are slowly trickling out of retail availability. There needs to be a stairstepping of bodies at different prices to direct people to higher end bodies over time. Can't get them on board if your cheapest body is 800 bucks.


I see TONS of newcomers in their 20s and 30s who proudly show off their new D3400 or D5600 body in certain places online. Their first dedicated camera. They only came on board because those are at an affordable price. If most of the camera brands are pushing premium or upscale products and pricing, they're going to have a more difficult challenge at getting customers imo.

Supposedly a lower end crop body is coming out for the Z lineup soon. But I really just think they need to make a 2nd gen Z50 and push the 1st gen to a lower price point.


The lenses are generally supreme quality optically but are bigger and more expensive than counterparts. Tested the Z 50mm f/1.8 S is actually sharper than the Sigma ART 50mm f/1.4 stopped down to f/1.8! So Nikon is bringing the A game to the new Z lineup. But it's just going to take time for people on DSLRs to adopt this new system. I think that happens in the next year as the pandemic wanes and people get back to formerly normal life. But it could take longer than that.
05-13-2021, 07:26 PM - 1 Like   #13
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They are going to have to do a partnership. Or consolidate heavily. Definitely not sustainable.
I'm thinkin they are going to partner with a smartphone company.
05-13-2021, 08:48 PM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by brewmaster15 Quote
. I do love my pentax but after shooting nikon d200,d300,d7000,d7200 ,d7500,d500.. I sincerely hope they survive these tough times.
Al
So do I, Al, the passing of Olympus to asset strippers rather than another camera company speaks volumes. Sony chose not to buy them, even though they're in the same zaibatsu, and were major shareholders in the past. Wouldn't wish similar on Nikon.

As for Nikon customers, the new lenses of course simply do not work on their DSLRs, that's deliberate. And the D500 has been noted as becoming increasingly unavailable, as if to support this report:

Nikon Dropping 1/3rd of Its DSLR Lineup in Move to Mirrorless.
05-13-2021, 11:04 PM - 3 Likes   #15
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It seems like a lot of the photo business is becoming a niche market.
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