Originally posted by AggieDad The real question is, “Can you, in good conscious, recommend Pentax to a new (entry level) buyer?”
Since in most cases the first SLR (or changeable lens) camera pretty much determines the kit a person will stay with throughout most of their time in the hobby, I just would not feel comfortable recommending Pentax at this time. Perhaps if they demonstrate some marketing effort, grow their share, and regain a semblance of a market presence, I would do so. But at this time I think I would be leading someone down the garden path.
There is no "entry level" buyer. That person is sticking with their cell phone. There is no advantage in going after a market segment that has withered on the vine due to disruptive market forces. Also, with DSLRs, the entry level user has changed brands about as often as they change their underwear.
Recommending a person away from a particular brand simply because it doesn't match one's preconceived notion of what a business model should be becomes a self fulfilling prophesy.
The problem with the thought that for Pentax to survive it has to grow it's market share is that it is a false argument based on an outdated notion that has been foisted on us by western economists that have more interest in the evil that is "shareholder value" than the health of a company.
Look where increasing market share got Nikon and Canon. Closed factories, thousands of people laid off, and those companies taking desperate measures just to stay afloat.
This is the ultimate end result of trying to increase market share, and it is based on the very flawed western capitalist economic theory of grow or die, that enriching the shareholder is the ultimate aim of business at the expense of the consumer, or even the people who are creating that shareholder value.
Again, I suspect the wonks at Ricoh no a whole bunch more about how to have a successful business model with what is in reality, little more than someone's hobby at head office.
Stay small and sell enough to get a reasonable ROI. That is how to survive as a small player, and frankly, there isn't a snowballs chance in hell of Pentax going back to the majors. That ship sailed in 1988.
Don't expect another "entry level" camera. The only people who don't know that ship has sailed are wannabe experts on the internet. The camera market is moving upscale to give itself plenty of separation between it and cell phones, and is hoping cell phones won't catch up for a while.
The K3III should be proof enough of that.
Expect a K1III to be an upsized version of the K3III. Expect it no sooner than 2024.
Expect any new lenses that come out to be fly by wire AF. Everything new they have released in the past few years has been that type of AF. Don't expect the present LTD lenses to get the PLM treatment. It's not worth Ricoh's time to do it.
Expect most new lenses to come out to be * lenses and to be both best in class and expensive.
Don't expect Pentax to suddenly shift over to mirrorless cameras. They know that would be suicide.
Pentax failed when they were the cheap and cheerful brand in a market that actually had a place for cheap and cheerful products. The market no longer has a place for cheap and cheerful. Those days are gone, that market segment no longer exists.
There is a place in the market for the SLR. There is a significant percentage of the population who find the EVF to be a thing of discomfort or outright pain. That person will never seriously entertain buying a mirrorless camera. That person will look for an alternative that doesn't feel like someone stuck a nail into their eye every time they lift the camera to it.
That person will look to Pentax as the only viable brand, exactly the same way the rangefinder customer looked to Leica through the SLR dominated 1960s to early 2000s.
Leica survived quite nicely by being out of step with the times, sticking with what they knew how to do (their attempts at SLRs were never taken seriously) and selling low volume very high quality and very expensive cameras. It's a successful business model in spite of the go big or go home narrative that has killed so many companies over the years.
Pentax will also survive quite nicely as an SLR company.
The question I have is if someone wants an SLR why would anyone suggest buying one from Canon or Nikon?
Those companies have already indicated they are getting out of the market. Those companies will abandon their SLR user base as quickly as they think they can get away with it. Within a few year, no new bodies at all, those users will be stuck scouring the used market and playing Russian Roulette with their money. Within a few years, no new lenses, see above for how to get an SLR lens from Nikon or Canon within the next half decade.
Repairs in five years to keep a camera that can't be replaced going? Forget it, parts aren't available, here's a hundred dollars towards a mirrorless camera.
That's part of how Nikon and Canon will go after market share. They will slowly but surely force recalcitrant users into the new system whether they want to go there or not. That will be the price the consumer pays for staying with those brands.
Think they won't do it? Check your history of the support Canon gave their legacy FD users 5 years after the EOS cameras hit the market. Support was non existent.