[westmill]

Wow. Have we reached the tipping point? My prediction - one of the big two (Canon and Nikon) will misjudge the mirrorless revolution. Ten years from now one of them will be well on their way to following Kodak to the history books....

Now come on lol..... dont lose the plot

[pingflood]

Wow. Have we reached the tipping point? My prediction - one of the big two (Canon and Nikon) will misjudge the mirrorless revolution. Ten years from now one of them will be well on their way to following Kodak to the history books....

I find it hard to believe they are not by now seeing the writing on the wall, but stranger things have happened. Might be that they are afraid of cannibalizing their sales, but they have to realize that if someone is going to it may as well be themselves.

[Parallax]

well it was a long time ago..... Its sad you think the exact date is relevent, thats far funnier lol
...................

Well, I'm not too concerned about exact dates, but a minimum of 21 years between the time you claimed it happened, and the time it was possible for it to have happened is a bit more than "not exact". (The J-SH04 was released in November 2000.)
It was said partly for clarification, but mostly in jest. Sorry you didn't take it that way.

[westmill]

So now we have a few mirrorless cameras, mostly compacts, that have caught the imagination mostly of the fasion brigade and its a revolution lol
Reminds of the space hopper. Tipping points ? writing on the wall ? History books ?
this thread has just become a comedy show !

[eddie1960]

43 Rumors | Blog | Impressive in Japan: Mirrorless surpasses DSLR market share. M43 surpasses Nikon and Canon!

Here are some graphs showing market share by mount.

Soon we will get to see how well these systems are selling in Japan at least.

In 2008 4/3 (standard) had more market share than K-mount and Olympus all but abandoned it. The moved to a system that can use any lens with an adapter and their sales have shot up.

.

it would be interesting to see worldwide stats. and from someone with an independant view. Hate to say it but Olympus' word on this holds little sway for me given the recent history.
For a specific sales time frame m4/3 has likely won a quarter and that is a good indicator of potential for growth. the next couple of years with a lot more serious mirrorless competition may tell a different story, Sony has been growing as well and were hampered by lack of sensors last quarter
Fuji is just coming to market
Pentax now entering as a more serious player (regardless of personal opinions people have on the design - it will be the first of many K mounts) Nikon is now in the market with their odd offering and Canon is still rumoured to have a design being prepped for release.
I doubt the death of the DSLR but certainly the market is diversifying (partially to try and recover the lost P&S market to cell phones)
I will acknowledge Oly have had excellent growth but mount market share i think the crown probably still overall belongs with EOS.

[redrockcoulee]

For now Kodak is not in the history books as they have new financing and film sales are up from the previous year. What I find on this thread that I do not understand is the whole wrap up of market share and which camera is out selling which in pre release. If the K-01 meets or exceeds Pentax's goal AND if the camera works then it is a sucess for them even if more X pro or cheeseburgers are sold. If it gets Pentax into the big box stores and they sell more cameras and more importantly more lenses than that works for us. If the Fuji is a bigger succuss than the K-01 does not mean that Pentax could have done the same what with Fuji having much more experience in rangefinders, perhaps a different risk factor that the company could reasonably take and other factors that have nothing to do with the camera itself. Pentax has been battling by giving more for less even or should I say especially in the medium format digital realm. Could they now release a premium camera with a different lens mount into the market and expect to replicate Fuji's success? I do not know the answer to that and I doubt anyone here would either. And coming out just after the Xpro which follows the X100 would not have meant that both systems would be indentical in sales.

Perhaps Pentax would have been smarter to move to the 4/3 system however from my point of view as a user of Pentax products is that in my best interest. This forum would have been full of Pentax abandoning their base evan as new K mount cameras were introduced and the unknowing in big box stores would have told customers that the K mounts would be no longer so buy a Canon or Nikon as if they need more excuses for saying that.

So Pentax should make a camera with the same mount as everyone else but different from Pentax users because some other companies have been very sucessful at that? Perhaps. But if the future is there why bother with the K mount and let us move on to the future. How does that benefit me. And if I want some thing that Pentax does not offer why should I not buy it from another company rather than expect Pentax to make if for me?

I do want Pentax to succeed (and Kodak as well ) but it does not matter to me if they do if that succuss would mean no more K mount cameras in the mid range future. A success to Pentax does not mean it must out sell any particular brand or model it means they must sell enough of their cameras and lenses to stay in business and to continue producing new models and lenses. How well they sell on Amazon is not the be all end all in business, especially a global one like cameras are. There are obviously some who want to move on from the K mount and that is fine if they do but to expect all companies to go that route and abandon their existing mounts may be expecting too much. A 4/3 mount is of no interest to me and if Pentax stopped making them I expect I would either buy the last top end model or else go to Nikon if they kept making their mount and buy a F100 to go with it.

We cannot all be the same or want the same nor do I want a world where every company provides me like-me products.

[johnmflores]

So now we have a few mirrorless cameras, mostly compacts, that have caught the imagination mostly of the fasion brigade and its a revolution lol

Did you just call the whole country of Japan a "fashion brigade"? For real?

Even if the number is inflated, and the real number is closer to 30%, that's still quite impressive for a technology that didn't exist 5 years ago. That would mean that if you went to Japan, you could only dismiss every third person you met as part of the "fashion brigage". Now that's LOL!

[johnmflores]

For now Kodak is not in the history books as they have new financing and film sales are up from the previous year.

I got some bad news for you

Kodak to shutter camera business
UPDATE 3-Kodak to shutter camera business | Reuters

[westmill]

Well, I'm not too concerned about exact dates, but a minimum of 21 years between the time you claimed it happened, and the time it was possible for it to have happened is a bit more than "not exact". (The J-SH04 was released in November 2000.)
It was said partly for clarification, but mostly in jest. Sorry you didn't take it that way.

No probs, any future storys will start with once upon a time lol
My sincere appoligies for my not exact not being not exact too

[pingflood]

I got some bad news for you

Kodak to shutter camera business
UPDATE 3-Kodak to shutter camera business | Reuters

Good riddance to the current Kodak cameras.

Film appears to be surviving though, at least for now.

[eddie1960]

I got some bad news for you

Kodak to shutter camera business
UPDATE 3-Kodak to shutter camera business | Reuters

thing is for the most part Kodak has never made good cameras, just great film.
The camera business is almost entirely focused on the low end of the P&S market which is being wiped out by cell phones, and it will only get worse at this point.
the film business actually had a good year last year (and it's just no longer capable of funding all the other failures and the heavy cost of restructuring and retired employees
whether or not the decision to become a printer specialist is a good idea is debatable since so few people actually print their photos now and it is also a very competitive business. Certainly it's not making money yet
It's sad to see the Patents being flogged off for a one time income boost versus a continuing income stream but if they aren't going to keep doing the r&d for new patents to supplement obsolete ones then it's probably a good idea
I think when it comes down to it someone will buy and continue the film business without having the encumbrances it has now and it will remain viable for a good while yet (though that's more at the mercy of the movie business than anything Film togs can impact

[westmill]

Did you just call the whole country of Japan a "fashion brigade"? For real?

Even if the number is inflated, and the real number is closer to 30%, that's still quite impressive for a technology that didn't exist 5 years ago. That would mean that if you went to Japan, you could only dismiss every third person you met as part of the "fashion brigage". Now that's LOL!

Not at all, but of course Japan has fashions ? Yes the new mirroless is popular etc, but hardly a revolution.
Thinking Nikon and Cannon are on there deathbed with all these end of the world is nigh reverlations is bordering on fanatical ramblings.
Also I think the figures are for sales not population.

[johnmflores]

Not at all, but of course Japan has fashions ? Yes the new mirroless is popular etc, but hardly a revolution.
Thinking Nikon and Cannon are on there deathbed with all these end of the world is nigh reverlations is bordering on fanatical ramblings.
Also I think the figures are for sales not population.

Not really. There are theoretical models that describe the introduction and adoption of new technology and how they can eventually replace older technologies and the companies built upon them. Take a look - Crossing the Chasm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We are watching a business school case study play out in front of our very eyes.

I may be exaggerating a bit by saying that either Canon or Nikon is heading towards bankruptcy in the next 10 years. More likely is the idea that 10 years out one of them will no longer be as relevant as they are today. They'll probably still be profitable, still selling dSLRs and probably mirrorless too, but they'll be faced with declining market share and forced to make tough decisions. Their decline will be probably be more akin to Microsoft. Microsoft is still wildly profitable and still dominating important markets - desktop OSes, enterprise, etc. But they're no longer the 800# gorilla they once were, just 600#. They are no longer looked at as thought-leaders in the industry - Apple and Google have taken that mantle. And they've repeatedly miss the boat on mobile devices. The bloom is off the rose, as it were.

[eddie1960]

Not at all, but of course Japan has fashions ? Yes the new mirroless is popular etc, but hardly a revolution.
Thinking Nikon and Cannon are on there deathbed with all these end of the world is nigh reverlations is bordering on fanatical ramblings.
Also I think the figures are for sales not population.

Market share of sales win for one quarter is just an indicator it is still a tiny number of total share of digital. and EF mount, Ai mount alpha and even K mount have substantial installed bases that still aren't there on m4/3 - in fact i probably see as many or more pentaxes in the wild in toronto as i do m4/3 and nex combined
canon though dwarves them all then nikon (if i'm at a big event that is diverse and free downtown i will see 45%+ Canon, 30% nikon 10 % Sony Alpha and the last 15% split between everyone else (equally almost between Pentax and m4/3 (pana and oly combined)

[eddie1960]

Not really. There are theoretical models that describe the introduction and adoption of new technology and how they can eventually replace older technologies and the companies built upon them. Take a look - Crossing the Chasm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We are watching a business school case study play out in front of our very eyes.

I may be exaggerating a bit by saying that either Canon or Nikon is heading towards bankruptcy in the next 10 years. More likely is the idea that 10 years out one of them will no longer be as relevant as they are today. They'll probably still be profitable, still selling dSLRs and probably mirrorless too, but they'll be faced with declining market share and forced to make tough decisions. Their decline will be probably be more akin to Microsoft. Microsoft is still wildly profitable and still dominating important markets - desktop OSes, enterprise, etc. But they're no longer the 800# gorilla they once were, just 600#. They are no longer looked at as thought-leaders in the industry - Apple and Google have taken that mantle. And they've repeatedly miss the boat on mobile devices. The bloom is off the rose, as it were.

Good point.
Also bearing in mind that the slr market has gone through this type of swing before (look at the 60's 70's where SLR was dominany and everywhere you went with some RF mixed in
then the 80's hit and so did good enough P&S
Slr sales dropped and the ones many people owned sat in a closet gathering dust (thanks to this it means we've had a good supply of really good old Pentax gear )
I think the next few years the SLR market will continue to grow (more slowly) mirrorless will continue it's trend and ultimately the markets will be split with mirrorless being the bigger market because it's more user freindly to the masses
high end high quality mirrorless will strip away some of the DSLR market as well (and as the older togs die off and stop buying new gear the new generation will be more comfortable in the mirrorless market having grown up without OVF as the first thing they used
and the one thing that will keep the growth happening is new markets like china and india. established markets will not be where the action is determined
And Phones if they aren't already will be the number one way people capture images withing the next couple of years if they continue to improve the way they have anyway)