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09-20-2010, 11:43 AM   #1
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Recesson ended in June

Began in 07... Must have been Obama's campaign's fault.....
BBC News - US recession 'longest since WWII'
Dang.. still no full recovery 4 months later........
QuoteQuote:
The previous longest postwar recessions in 1973-75 (A quadrupling of oil prices by OPEC coupled with high government spending because of the Vietnam War led to stagflation in the United States.[38] The period was also marked by the 1973 oil crisis and the 1973–1974 stock market crash. The period is remarkable for rising unemployment coinciding with rising inflation) and 1981-82 (The Iranian Revolution sharply increased the price of oil around the world in 1979, causing the 1979 energy crisis. This was caused by the new regime in power in Iran, which exported oil at inconsistent intervals and at a lower volume, forcing prices up. Tight monetary policy in the United States to control inflation led to another recession. The changes were made largely because of inflation carried over from the previous decade because of the 1973 oil crisis and the 1979 energy crisis) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_1980s_recession both lasted 16 months, it said.
"It's about the oil stupid" (reference from a different post)........


Last edited by jeffkrol; 09-20-2010 at 11:52 AM.
09-20-2010, 12:37 PM   #2
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I wonder how most people receive this news. For the past 10 years, recession or no recession seems to be increasingly irrelevant to the average earner. Jobs and wages don't seem to grow a lot even when times are better as a whole.
09-20-2010, 03:27 PM   #3
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"The National Bureau of Economic Research said the recovery began in June 2009.........."

Things must be better, Nevada's unemployment is up to 14.4% and Calif. is over 12% as published gov't numbers, net unemployment....well you guess what it is. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel and it sounds like it is traveling at us at 90 MPH.

Maybe the gov't author got a bad load in his bong or it is electon time.
09-20-2010, 04:24 PM   #4
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QuoteOriginally posted by Phil1 Quote
"The National Bureau of Economic Research said the recovery began in June 2009.........."

Things must be better, Nevada's unemployment is up to 14.4% and Calif. is over 12% as published gov't numbers, net unemployment....well you guess what it is. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel and it sounds like it is traveling at us at 90 MPH.

Maybe the gov't author got a bad load in his bong or it is electon time.
A bit sarcastic today?????
Of course your not better.. but the big boys are.......
QuoteQuote:
Now they tell us.

The group of economists that dates the beginning and end of recessions has announced that the nation's longest since the Great Depression ended in June 2009. That means the economy has expanded for 15 months.

But for many Americans, particularly the 15 million still unemployed, the past year and three months have hardly felt like a recovery. Consider how the economy has performed during that time:

_ 329,000: The net number of jobs lost since the recession officially ended.

_ 0.1 percentage point: The rise in unemployment, to 9.6 percent last month from 9.5 percent in June 2009.

_ 3 percent: The growth in annualized gross domestic product, the broadest gauge of the economy's output.

_ 0.5 percent: The increase in personal income.

_ 2 percent: The increase in personal spending.

_ 22 percent: The stock market's rise, as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 index

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/09/20/chart-check-where-are-we-at-after-recessions-end/
I like this one, look at the sad one in 2001:
http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2010/09/20/a_look_at_economic_develo...und_the_globe/
QuoteQuote:
KARACHI, Pakistan -- Pakistan's plea for billions of dollars to recover from this summer's floods has sparked pressure on the country to reform a tax system that collects very little money, even from the rich
One more chart.........

QuoteQuote:
What is clear is that 2007-09 can be called the “Great Recession” with some justification. At 18 months it lasted longer than any other postwar recession (the average is 10 months) and the 4 per cent fall in output from peak to trough makes it one of the most severe.

Indeed, the 2007-09 recession is more reminiscent of those that the US suffered before the first world war, when the average length was 22 months. Many of those recessions also featured a financial or banking crisis, which were common before the Federal Reserve was founded in 1913.

The recovery since June 2009 could be called the “Great Disappointment”. After both the 1973-75 and 1981-82 recessions, output took only three quarters to exceed its previous peak. After four quarters this time it is still 1.3 per cent below its level at the end of 2007.

Both the extent of the recession and the weakness of the recovery support the arguments of economists such as Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff who said that recovery after a financial crisis was likely to be slower than after a normal recession.

The slump in stocks and house prices has reduced the wealth of households but they must still repay the debts that they borrowed against them. Many economists think that the need to pay down debt will hold back consumption growth for several years to come.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development also argued on Monday that the US would not bounce back to recover all of the output it lost in the recession.

“It is also likely that the financial crisis and response have raised the cost of capital for the foreseeable future and thus lowered potential output relative to its pre-crisis path,” the Paris-based body said in its economic survey of the US.

President Barack Obama said on Monday: “The hole was so deep that a lot of people out there are still hurting.” One reason that the recovery feels so painful is because of a change in the US labour market. Jobs no longer bounce back quickly after a recession.

In the 14 months after the end of the 1981-82 recession unemployment fell from 10.8 per cent to 8 per cent; after 1973-75 it fell from 8.6 per cent to 7.2 per cent in the same period.

Yet 14 months into this recovery unemployment has barely changed: it is up slightly from 9.5 per cent in June 2009 to 9.6 per cent today. There was a similar pattern after the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.

That suggests that the slow recovery in jobs is not just because there has been a financial crisis together with this recession. Rather, it reflects a new approach by US companies, which now use a downturn to increase productivity, reducing their need to hire workers again quickly.
Shall we make them hire??????? Tell me [or the president) how. Tax increase or decrease, they won't change till they want to change.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e1fea3ce-c4ed-11df-9134-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss
And all the charts you could possibly want.............
http://www.businessinsider.com/nber-recession-ended-june-2009-2010-9


Last edited by jeffkrol; 09-20-2010 at 04:43 PM.
09-20-2010, 07:42 PM   #5
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Then the Big Boys should be makin piles of money with the economy so good and employment expenses way down. The stock market doesn't seem to follow your charts too well and reasonably is flat. Even Russia is dumping 100,000 gov't workers. The US isn't that smart. Last I looked real estate is lower in the dump than a year ago by most stats. The 'Summer of Recovery' is working well... not so much. Should we talk about debit....maybe not.

http://realestate.msn.com/blogs/listedblogpost.aspx?post=1804778&_blg=1,1806324

Last edited by Phil1; 09-20-2010 at 08:15 PM.
09-20-2010, 11:18 PM   #6
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Phil,
As a vegetarian, I'm thinking it's mad cow. No matter how bad a trip you're on, no one would think we're recovering.
Or it could be toxoplasma gondii cause these people ate cats.
09-21-2010, 05:38 AM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by Phil1 Quote
Then the Big Boys should be makin piles of money with the economy so good and employment expenses way down. The stock market doesn't seem to follow your charts too well and reasonably is flat. Even Russia is dumping 100,000 gov't workers. The US isn't that smart. Last I looked real estate is lower in the dump than a year ago by most stats. The 'Summer of Recovery' is working well... not so much. Should we talk about debit....maybe not.

Listed: MSN Real Estate's daily blog - MSN Real Estate
And yet the top 25 hedge fund managers averaged a billion dollars each....someone makes money.

09-21-2010, 06:10 AM   #8
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
And yet the top 25 hedge fund managers averaged a billion dollars each....someone makes money.
And those are tax loopholed dollars to boot, the whole thing taxed at 15%, as their pay is considered 'capital gains'.

Of couse that would go up to a whopping 20% under Obama's proposal (unless Congress finds the sense to eliminate this loophole entirely)...



-----------


Personally, while I don't like the employment trends at all... I am hoping for something to pull the financial system out of its doldrums. If that's a (corporate profit + low yielding bond + stratospheric gold price) driven bull market in stocks, great. Consider, people will start feeling a bit more flush again, if their retirement plans gain with the stock market. Many are sitting on deferred compensation in the form of company stock, and if that goes up, the effect is one of a retroactive pay increase. And corporate treasuries will be in better shape. All this allows the financing of more expansion, and for individuals some courage to spend.

Which, eventually, will allow emoployment to go up.
09-21-2010, 07:21 AM   #9
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nesster Quote
And those are tax loopholed dollars to boot, the whole thing taxed at 15%, as their pay is considered 'capital gains'.

Of couse that would go up to a whopping 20% under Obama's proposal (unless Congress finds the sense to eliminate this loophole entirely)...



-----------


Personally, while I don't like the employment trends at all... I am hoping for something to pull the financial system out of its doldrums. If that's a (corporate profit + low yielding bond + stratospheric gold price) driven bull market in stocks, great. Consider, people will start feeling a bit more flush again, if their retirement plans gain with the stock market. Many are sitting on deferred compensation in the form of company stock, and if that goes up, the effect is one of a retroactive pay increase. And corporate treasuries will be in better shape. All this allows the financing of more expansion, and for individuals some courage to spend.

Which, eventually, will allow emoployment to go up.
True, but we also have some structural issues to remedy, or we will be back here again. We can't be a country that provides only burgers and banks.
09-21-2010, 08:12 AM   #10
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
True, but we also have some structural issues to remedy, or we will be back here again. We can't be a country that provides only burgers and banks.
And for that tussle, I wish Obama and the Democrats the fortitude to overcome the more ideologically fuelled opposition members, and the Republicans enough flexibility to come to a workable compromise.
09-21-2010, 08:16 AM   #11
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I'm glad they announced that.
Otherwise I would have missed it
09-21-2010, 09:36 AM   #12
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""And yet the top 25 hedge fund managers averaged a billion dollars each....someone makes money.""

I believe you are talking compensation packages not market performance. Two differant things. They make it buying and selling, long AND short. Note REAL currency value by noting the increase in the price of precious metals. Interesting that other commodities have lagged in increases due to the financial climate world wide as well as the outlook going forward. A major increase in inflation would really hurt with jobs so poor.

Make 3% in dollars and have the value, aka buying power slip 9% isn't moving forward and the happy facers needs less time on the bong. So many have not come close to recovering from 401K and real estate losses. It will be years if at all.

You can thank the government for this.

The last one with a real job please turn out the light.
09-21-2010, 10:06 AM   #13
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QuoteOriginally posted by Phil1 Quote
""And yet the top 25 hedge fund managers averaged a billion dollars each....someone makes money.""

I believe you are talking compensation packages not market performance. Two differant things. They make it buying and selling, long AND short. Note REAL currency value by noting the increase in the price of precious metals. Interesting that other commodities have lagged in increases due to the financial climate world wide as well as the outlook going forward. A major increase in inflation would really hurt with jobs so poor.

Make 3% in dollars and have the value, aka buying power slip 9% isn't moving forward and the happy facers needs less time on the bong. So many have not come close to recovering from 401K and real estate losses. It will be years if at all.

You can thank the government for this.

The last one with a real job please turn out the light.
Which gov? US gov. or the corporate states of america???.........
QuoteQuote:
Republican-leaning groups that don’t disclose their donors are raising and spending millions of dollars on the U.S. congressional elections, helping make up for the party’s fundraising deficit.

Five organizations alone reported spending more than $5 million since Aug. 1 on so-called electioneering communications, compared with less than $200,000 for Democratic-leaning groups, Federal Election Commission data show. Millions of dollars in other spending to influence the Nov. 2 elections doesn’t have to be reported because the ads don’t mention specific candidates.

There is “much more money flowing,” said Craig Holman of Public Citizen in Washington, who lobbies for stricter campaign finance laws. “We’ve gone from full disclosure to full non- disclosure in a short period of years.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-21/republican-groups-in-u-s-use-hidden...rats-cash.html

Last edited by jeffkrol; 09-21-2010 at 10:12 AM.
09-21-2010, 10:14 AM   #14
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QuoteOriginally posted by Phil1 Quote
Make 3% in dollars and have the value, aka buying power slip 9% isn't moving forward and the happy facers needs less time on the bong. So many have not come close to recovering from 401K and real estate losses. It will be years if at all.

You can thank the government for this.

The last one with a real job please turn out the light.
Not sure I follow - which government and in what way do I thank them, for what?

Do I thank the Republican Tax Cutter Defecit Spenders, or the Democrat Socialist Redistribunist Defecit Spenders?

I'm inclined to thank the Big Businessmen who have succeeded, beyond their dreams, in reframing the political discussion to their terms. Though middle and upper management still is the old command n control game, by and large these days getting things done is a matter of coordinating a variety of vendors rather than employees, in a large corporation. This explicitly squeezes out the old middle income worker from Big Business job growth (and salary increase).

Conservatives, by their nature, find it difficult to see and understand this change in how corporate America works. Therefore, while their intentions may be in the right place, they are fighting for a version of reality from 30 years ago, and their politics are overly influenced by the interests of the big businessmen. And again, constitutionally, this would be difficult for a conservative to see.

Liberals, by their nature, find it difficult to see the momentum or conservatism of corporate life - the amount of change possible via legistlation is over estimated by the typical liberal. Ironically, it's the liberal who might be able to see what big business is doing - as above - but don't have the tools to have a huge effect, and also emotionally tend to lose a big chunk of Americans via this 'foreign, elitist' understanding of what's going on with business.

Although, everyone seems to agree that big business has too much influence, only everyone agrees this influence is mainly warping everyone else's views. And the simplistic, vote em all out and put in all new people, strategy is a) unreasonable because unachievable b) unlikely to really change how things are run for the better - more likely, things will go towards worse, as corporate influence grows.

Throwing aside ideology and partisanship for a moment, if one really listens to what Obama says, one sees he is a centrist, and is willing to take on the problems in a way that pain and gain are shared across all participants. The adverserial method of politics - we all just shout out our own point of view and defend our own interests - in theory results in some form of compromise or balance of interests in government (as it should result in justice done in the courts). Thus the amount of screaming by special interests is a good thing, it means they are feeling the threat - only thing, we shouldn't be so dumb as to give in to whoever has the most bucks to spend on the most emotional advertising.
09-21-2010, 10:30 AM   #15
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It was always about the oil. You can listen to a hundred financial experts say oil wasn't the cause of most of the problems we are now in but anybody with half a brain can see it. In the summer of 08, when oil was skyrocketing, we all knew something BAD was going to happen. I had spent almost 3 grand the previous winter heating my home. Most of my savings got eaten up. I was in a good enough position to spend the rest of my money on a new furnace, which would cut my expenses big time. I went from 1000 gals. a year to 300. In Sept., 2008, heating oil was $5 a gallon, give or take a few cents. My oil dealer told me to be prepared for $7-$8 prices by mid winter. They wanted me to buy a contract and lock my price in at the Sept. level. I didn't and decided that if it got that high, I would burn more wood. Many people didn't. Nobody spent money on anything they didn't need. The economy tanked. We all knew it would. As for oil prices, whether they are high or low isn't the biggest problem. They need to be stable to a certain degree. Right now, an average fuel oil delivery will be around $550, give or take a little. You can budget for that but if it jumps to $1200 a tankful, you're screwed. You have to make up the difference somewhere. On a bad winter, if you have an older furnace that wasn't built in the last 5 yrs., you're filling that tank every 6 weeks. Add to that transportation costs for the family cars, the increased electric bills and presto, instant recession. You heat your house, drive the car, pay the utilities, and let the other stuff slide for a month. The next month got worse. When the banks and stock market crashed, that cushion of a 401K that many people could have used became worthless. This isn't over by a long shot. Winter is coming and the spending habits of consumers is about to go back into winter mode.
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