Originally posted by mikemike We all know the CBO's 10 year predictions are bulletproof, just like when they projected the bush tax cuts would reduce the deficit.
Was it not Bush tax cuts based on CBO's projections, in other words the CBO projected a surplus so Bush made tax cuts rather than CBO advised Bush to cut taxes to create a surplus? CBO also forgot to include the future Afghanistan and Iraq wars in their projection which I believe are credited by some as being even bigger factors.
And of course CBO are projections or estimates and the more variables there are and the longer the term the more likely for error in the estimates. It would be much easier to estimate the cost of any one program over a ten year period than that of the entire economy. Economic forecasts are based on probabilities of both situations continuing as they are current trends such as more e commerce and aging demographics and most likely possibilities but they cannot include unknown ones such as 911 or political instabilities. With the knowledge of the current rate of increase in health care and the aging population health care estimates can more easily be calculated than say the cost of fighting wars that may crop up or natural disasters that could completely throw off commodity prices and create depressions or booms.
Last edited by redrockcoulee; 01-07-2011 at 09:22 PM.
Reason: added future and wars for clarity