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01-07-2011, 06:42 AM | #1 |
Why talk of Chinese funding us is nonsense (I kid you not)
JohnInIndy in the other thread quotes Obama saying this in 2006: Quote: It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. How do the foreigners get US dollars? They sell us stuff. There is no other way: they cannot print US dollars (although Saddam Hussien reportedly tried at some point ) When we sell less stuff to them than they sell to us we run what is called a "trade deficit" versus the rest of the world and they get to keep the US dollars they earned. So far so good. None of this has anything, absolutely anything to do with "Government’s reckless fiscal policies", unless you mean free trade and if you mean domestic government spending. In other words, even if not a single dollar was spent on Social Security, Medicare, defense, unemployment benefits, salaries of congressmen etc, the fact that we import more than we export makes the foreigners holders of US dollars. Now, why do foreigners hold US debt? They want to earn return (interest) on those same dollars, just as you'd rather have your money in a savings account were it grows as opposed to a checking account. So, they "lend" us our dollars (that they earned via trade) back. In reality, what happens is that those dollars are entries at the Fed in what is called reserve accounts, which is just a fancy name for a checking account. When foreigners buy US debt, their electronic dollars are shifted from reserve accounts at the Fed to savings accounts at the same Fed, which are called US treasuries. That's all. It has nothing to do with any reckless policies, unless you consider free trade a reckless policy (this is debatable, but it has nothing to do with US domestic deficits.) Actually, our trade deficit, under current circumstances, is on the whole probably beneficial to us: we get the real productive output from the foreigners in exchange for money. The downside is less employment at home. This is a separate issue. Now you see why our President is either clueless or is pulling your leg? | |
01-07-2011, 07:16 AM | #2 |
The government, and especially the federal government deals with both domestic policy and international relations. So any government policies making it harder or more expensive to produce domestically than it is in China are fair game for scrutiny. Also eligible is any failure by the government to hold China accountable for their trade barriers that prevent us from exporting to them. Policies that I see making it more expensive to produce here than it is there: -High minimum wage (gives us a disadvantage in industries requiring unskilled labor) -Taxes on repatriation of profits (makes an exporting strategy less attractive than a JV or subsidiary strategy in international trade) -Payroll taxes on US workers and businesses -Environmental and worker safety regulations (not actually a bad thing in my mind but it is a factor in the trade equation) Foreign policy failures: -Allowing China to undervalue their currency -Internet censorship (inhibits business of US internet and software companies in China) -Permissiveness of Chinese military and corporate espionage and technology transfers -Not responding to capricious trade barriers thrown up by the Chinese -Not holding the Chinese accountable for the actions and atrocities of N. Korea and Myanmar -Not pushing China to be more responsible when dealing with dictatorships in African nations | |
01-07-2011, 07:35 AM | #3 |
Mike, while you might be right that any policy failure should be discussed, this is not what people usually have in mind when they say that "Chinese fund us". Do you think Obama was talking about minimum wage in 2006? I don't think so. People really do think that Chinese give us money to spend - which is nonsense: we don't need money we can create on our own in unlimited quantities. And Chinese got that money from us in the first place, of course. That said, we can go over your list and discuss things. Some of them could be beneficial for one aspect of the economy and deleterious for others. When you lower minimum wage, for example, you also make your people poorer and allow more exploitation of labor, while your ability to remove it to the level of a Chinese worker is really questionable; there could be other things I am missing, haven't thought too much of that. I am totally with you on payroll taxes and taxes in general. Payroll tax should be abolished completely and other taxes should be lowered right now (they might need to be raised later when we're close to full employment.) Again - this is not what people talk about when they talk about foreigners funding us. Environmental and worker safety regulations - you said yourself. Foreign policy failures could all be true to some extent but we don't have unlimited leverage there, sometimes none, really. Some have pretty much nothing to do with trade deficit. Additionally, there is a school of thought that trade deficit is always a benefit for us. I cannot agree without reservations. While imports are indeed benefits and exports costs, the domestic workforce does suffer, at least in the short term (before it regroups and acquires new skills). But on the whole we're probably better off as a nation with the trade deficit as it is right now. This could change in the future. Last edited by skyredoubt; 01-07-2011 at 07:54 AM. | |
01-07-2011, 10:03 PM | #4 |
I think you are missing the fact that interest paid out is money not spent within the country and is therefore not available for domestic investment. The Chinese can just as easily invest in Alberta Oil Sands or projects. The interest paid on the debt is money that could either be spent on other programs or not collected in taxes hence money borrowed do have a real cost to them. Printing instead of borrowing devalued the currency and creates inflation and at the extreme of that look at what happened to Germany in 1924 (before Hitler). On the other hand the US pays about one half of the percentage of its budget on interest that the Canadian government does (6 compared to 15) and yet we went into the recession later, went down less and recovering quicker (now as many jobs in the country as before the recession). Much of your economic problems are internal and not due to government spending or the trade deficit and social programs, immigrants, Chinese. unions or environmental regulations are excuses to not look at the fundamental problems with the economy. According to Wikipedia 27 percent of your federal debt is owned by foreign investors, 20.8 by the Chinese and 20.2 by Japan. So China owes 21 percent of 27 percent or 5.5% of it. 83% is owned to American investors and their income I assume would be spent or re invested in your country. Lastly remember that oil is sold on the world stage in American dollars so all countries that need to import oil need American dollars. This also shores up the value of your dollar making your exports more expensive and imports cheaper (no idea of by how much). Canada usually runs trade surpluses with our southern neighbours mostly due to the export of raw materials which creates less jobs than the exporting of value added goods. We run larger deficits with the rest of the world therefore no surpluses on the final balance sheet. | |
01-08-2011, 12:52 AM | #5 |
I think you are missing the fact that interest paid out is money not spent within the country and is therefore not available for domestic investment. The Chinese can just as easily invest in Alberta Oil Sands or projects. The interest paid on the debt is money that could either be spent on other programs or not collected in taxes hence money borrowed do have a real cost to them. Printing instead of borrowing devalued the currency and creates inflation and at the extreme of that look at what happened to Germany in 1924 (before Hitler). Now, regarding that printing instead of borrowing devaluing the currency. This is not true, at least not true under any circumstances. In the economy running under capacity, as it is now, the bigger risk is actually deflation. Besides, if you look at the equation MV=PQ (Quantity theory of money - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia), price level P (inflation) goes up with money M going up only if Q (productive output) and V (velocity of money) don't change in the ways that counterbalances that. Right now, for example, V is so small that despite a huge spike in M, we see no inflation. If increasing P leads to increase in Q, then, again, you'll have no or moderate inflation. Point is, we don't need Chinese dollars to invest in our economy. US govt can supply unlimited amount of dollars to the economy and should only be concerned that those dollars go to productive or otherwise worthy purposes. By the way, what happened in Weimar and more recently Zimbabwe has almost no applicability to our situation. These two were countries whose productive capacity was severely disrupted, with Weimar having to pay huge reparations in foreign currency and Zimbabwe with its agricultural sector wiped out. See details here, for example: MMT: Fear of Hyperinflation naked capitalism Quote: On the other hand the US pays about one half of the percentage of its budget on interest that the Canadian government does (6 compared to 15) and yet we went into the recession later, went down less and recovering quicker (now as many jobs in the country as before the recession). Much of your economic problems are internal and not due to government spending or the trade deficit and social programs, immigrants, Chinese. unions or environmental regulations are excuses to not look at the fundamental problems with the economy. Govt Deficit (Surplus) = Private Sector Surplus (Deficit), where private sector includes foreigners. Since we have trade deficit with the foreigners, the only way for domestic private sector to run surpluses is for the US govt to run deficits. This is true simply by accounting identity. Every time US govt ran a surplus, the private sector went into deficit and debt which is an unstable situation, and every time a recession followed. See, for example, details here: http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb_111.pdf Quote: According to Wikipedia 27 percent of your federal debt is owned by foreign investors, 20.8 by the Chinese and 20.2 by Japan. So China owes 21 percent of 27 percent or 5.5% of it. 83% is owned to American investors and their income I assume would be spent or re invested in your country. Quote: Lastly remember that oil is sold on the world stage in American dollars so all countries that need to import oil need American dollars. This also shores up the value of your dollar making your exports more expensive and imports cheaper (no idea of by how much). Canada usually runs trade surpluses with our southern neighbours mostly due to the export of raw materials which creates less jobs than the exporting of value added goods. We run larger deficits with the rest of the world therefore no surpluses on the final balance sheet. | |
01-08-2011, 09:38 AM | #6 |
skyredoubt So why did not Britain and France just print off the money they owed to the United States if it would have not impact on their economies? your link MMT: Fear of Hyperinflation naked capitalism Has any country actually printed large increases of money unless they had extreme reasons to do so? If not they how do we know that greatly expanding the monetary supply is not harmful to the currency? These are simply questions about a single monetary theory being the only one and there is no need to answer these questions especially if you need to do any research. Why not just eliminated all taxes and increase government spending by printing more money? And what about all the economic theories that are in disagreement with the one you bring forth? Economics is not my field. I do know that at work when we discover a contaminated site we need to access its risk to health and the environment and do estimate the cost of either cleaning it up or maintaining it and these costs are charge to the government balance sheet regardless whether we do any spending on it or not until the site is totally remediated. This is your transfer of funds or accounting debt only. I also know that when we contract someone to come onto the base and build a building that they actually get paid for it and the government needs to have funds to pay for it. I am not an economist but the Prime Minister is and he also loves DND but he has cut the budgets the last two years to keep the national deficit down. There must be a rational economic reason that he does not just print more money and fund us more. Of course he might not be rational and I for one have no desire to defend him on just about any issue. Also during the period that the federal government ran deficits year after year we had recessions and boom times and during the decade of Martin as Finance Minister with surplus we had a small recession and boom times. Perhaps there is a correlation I am not seeing | |
01-08-2011, 11:32 AM | #7 |
skyredoubt So why did not Britain and France just print off the money they owed to the United States if it would have not impact on their economies? your link MMT: Fear of Hyperinflation naked capitalism Has any country actually printed large increases of money unless they had extreme reasons to do so? If not they how do we know that greatly expanding the monetary supply is not harmful to the currency? These are simply questions about a single monetary theory being the only one and there is no need to answer these questions especially if you need to do any research. Why not just eliminated all taxes and increase government spending by printing more money? And what about all the economic theories that are in disagreement with the one you bring forth? Economics is not my field. I do know that at work when we discover a contaminated site we need to access its risk to health and the environment and do estimate the cost of either cleaning it up or maintaining it and these costs are charge to the government balance sheet regardless whether we do any spending on it or not until the site is totally remediated. This is your transfer of funds or accounting debt only. I also know that when we contract someone to come onto the base and build a building that they actually get paid for it and the government needs to have funds to pay for it. I am not an economist but the Prime Minister is and he also loves DND but he has cut the budgets the last two years to keep the national deficit down. There must be a rational economic reason that he does not just print more money and fund us more. Of course he might not be rational and I for one have no desire to defend him on just about any issue. Also during the period that the federal government ran deficits year after year we had recessions and boom times and during the decade of Martin as Finance Minister with surplus we had a small recession and boom times. Perhaps there is a correlation I am not seeing Quote: Critics of the welfare state argue that such a system will make citizens dependent on the system and less inclined to work. However, certain studies indicate there is no association between economic performance and welfare expenditure in developed countries,[20] and that there is no evidence for the contention that welfare states impede progressive social development. R. E. Goodin et al., in The Real Worlds of Welfare Capitalism,[21] compares the United States, which spends relatively little on social welfare (less than 17 percent of GDP), with other countries which spend considerably more. This study claims that on some economic and social indicators the United States performs worse than the Netherlands, which has a high commitment to welfare provision. A country is more than economic theory and is mostly smoke and mirrors anyways..... The Problem with Printing Money — Economics Blog Quote: The fact is, if the government cut out the middleman and used seignorage (i.e. the government’s power to levy an indirect tax on its citizens by simply printing more money) we would all be much better off (at the expense of the bankers). Quote: Japan has printed large amounts of money and bought back national debt over the last ten years. This goes by the fancy name “quantitative easing”. The idea is to drive down long term interest rates with a view to simulating demand. Unfortunately this ploy has had precious little effect in Japan (on inflation or anything else). One of the reasons for the non effect is not too difficult to fathom: holders of national debt regard it as SAVINGS – they are not going to run out and spend this just because a tranche of savings are converted from government debt to cash. They’ll just plonk the cash in a deposit account. Put another way, expanding the money supply depends crucially on what people do with the newly printed money. If they don’t do much with it, there will be no effect. | |
01-08-2011, 04:47 PM | #8 |
This stuff is too complicated for me. I'm heading over to Beginners Q&A where the biggest problem is the flashing F--. | |
01-08-2011, 07:15 PM | #9 |
At the end of the day it boils down to the fact that the economic relationship between the US and China is unsustainable and sooner or later something is going to give. If a diplomatically negotiated and gradually implemented approach is not taken it will be very disruptive to both of our societies. | |
01-08-2011, 08:54 PM | #10 |
skyredoubt So why did not Britain and France just print off the money they owed to the United States if it would have not impact on their economies? your link MMT: Fear of Hyperinflation naked capitalism Has any country actually printed large increases of money unless they had extreme reasons to do so? If not they how do we know that greatly expanding the monetary supply is not harmful to the currency? These are simply questions about a single monetary theory being the only one and there is no need to answer these questions especially if you need to do any research. The right answer is actually even more elegant: the size of the government deficit should be exactly the size of the private sector's desired surpluses. It will shrink and expand accordingly. Now, back to France and England. First, they owed us in US dollars and so they could not just print those. They had to get them from trade, so, they had to give up their productive output in exchange for dollars that they used to pay off debt. The world also operated under the gold standard, so, your options to print money were limited. That said, sometimes currency devaluation could the least of two evils. The European countries like Poland and Iceland that allowed their currency to depreciate (unlike Ireland, for example, which is on Euro) are actually doing much better now. Quote: Why not just eliminated all taxes and increase government spending by printing more money? And what about all the economic theories that are in disagreement with the one you bring forth? Now, all economic theories are, of course, just that, theories. They try to describe how economy operates. You assess the theories on their track record because controlled experiments in economics are pretty much impossible. The orthodox economic theories continue to miserably fail to explain the economic reality. Take for example the recent crisis. Or, listen to all the people talking about how such and such debt-to-GDP ratio is unsustainable. They bring forth apocalyptic predictions because of our 50% debt-to-GDP. Then you ask then how come their predictions fail for Japan with 200% debt-to-GDP and 0% interest rates? Then you know they are missing the wood for trees. They concentrate on numbers that are meaningless without relation to economic realities. One huge, and I mean it, HUGE, advantage of MMT is that is based on accounting identities that other economic theories simply fail to appreciate. Once you see the logic behind the sectoral balance identity that government deficit (surplus) = private sectors surplus (deficit) you realize that the MMT conclusions are based on firm ground and not on mathematical models that fail to describe observable reality. Quote: I am not an economist but the Prime Minister is and he also loves DND but he has cut the budgets the last two years to keep the national deficit down. There must be a rational economic reason that he does not just print more money and fund us more. Of course he might not be rational and I for one have no desire to defend him on just about any issue. Quote: Also during the period that the federal government ran deficits year after year we had recessions and boom times and during the decade of Martin as Finance Minister with surplus we had a small recession and boom times. Perhaps there is a correlation I am not seeing | |
01-08-2011, 08:55 PM | #11 |
01-10-2011, 07:42 AM | #12 |
As a matter of fact, Nicolas Sarkozy and President Obama are meeting today to discuss the role of the USD as the world reserve currency. Recent monetary policy has shaken the world's faith in the USD and the federal reserve and if we aren't careful our currency will lose the coveted and enviable position as a reserve currency. I'd bet a milkshake that by the end of the week the Sarkozy visit spawns more stories about what Michelle and Carla wore than the substance of the monetary policy discussion that is taking place. | |
01-10-2011, 08:36 AM | #13 |
Foreign policy failures: -Allowing China to undervalue their currency - which benefits the USA in many ways - not least that a) cheaper imports allow Americans to continue a luxurious lifestyle they would not otherwise be able to afford (if those same products were produced in the USA for example) . b) many of those same products are being produced here by American and European companies simply for export to the West - however never a word is said against them by Western leaders, in fact to the contrary when US and European leaders address their chamber of commerces here they are full of praise and encouragement ! c) an overly fast strengthening of the RMB would lead to mass lays-offs, unemployment and unimaginable hardship for the 70% of the Chinese population that are peasants earning, in most cases, less than a dollar a day, potentially leading to outright rebellion and a disastrous effect on both China and the World's economy, 2008/9 would seem like nothing in comparison -Internet censorship (inhibits business of US internet and software companies in China) - well for a start most of those companies would have to compete in Chinese (since the vast majority of the Chinese population either don't speak any English or certainly not enough to give them confidence to utilise Western websites, and software would have to be written in Chinese of course (which Microsoft etc. do anyway - over here though not from within the USA). You are also confused ... this is a communist country not a western democracy, most of the reasons (whether I agree with them or not, and mostly not) are to control ideology and state control not for commercial reasons. -Permissiveness of Chinese military and corporate espionage and technology transfers - cough cough CIA ? Are you honestly suggesting the USA don't engage in similar tactics - that is naivety in the extreme. Most technology transfers are pacts between JV companies - US and European companies wanting access to the vast Chinese market and willing to forego long term advantages (by giving up rights to their technology) for short term financial gains. It's called business. -Not responding to capricious trade barriers thrown up by the Chinese - let's not get into this one. A 3rd third country protecting itself from Western rapacious tendencies proven over decades of economically raping 3rd world countries for oil, minerals etc. To say nothing of the USA's own barriers in the fields of agriculture, mineral rights etc. etc. -Not holding the Chinese accountable for the actions and atrocities of N. Korea and Myanmar. Get real. Should we also hold the Americans responsible for Israel's actions etc. etc. That is an absolutely outrageous and ridiculous statement. You hold up the First Amendment and then want to chastise a country for not controlling another ?! -Not pushing China to be more responsible when dealing with dictatorships in African nations Show me the USA's response to atrocities / genocide in African countries which don't have mineral rights worth exploiting !! That may be too harsh but I'd still draw your attention to the Geneva convention - which Western countries have used when it suits them to not intervene in the said atrocities mentioned above. China is a 3rd world country and developing nation - yet your irrational fear of their growth / economic power now imbues them with the civil responsibilities of 1st world countries it seems. Last edited by Frogfish; 01-10-2011 at 09:28 AM. | |
01-10-2011, 09:59 AM | #14 |
Quote: It is recklessly irresponsible for the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury to try and play games with the US Dollar. The fact the the US has been so stable and our monetary policy has been so conservative that we didn't pull a Poland or Iceland has been a reason for our currency fulfilling the old role of gold on the world monetary stage. If we believe that economy starved of demand as ours with nearly 20% unemployment and underemployment should worry about world reserve currency more than getting all these people to work and productive growth, then our priorities are really screwed up. Quote: Recent monetary policy has shaken the world's faith in the USD and the federal reserve and if we aren't careful our currency will lose the coveted and enviable position as a reserve currency. Last edited by skyredoubt; 01-10-2011 at 11:41 AM. | |
01-10-2011, 10:21 AM | #15 |
Yes, we should. The US engages in peace talks and tries to work on that situation a 1000 times more than the chinese engage the North Koreans. If the the N. Koreans deploy chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons against the south I can almost guarantee you that US, Japan, S. Korea, and some EU states (all of whom produce lots of stuff in China) would implement severe sanctions against the Chinese for enabling the North for so long. ---------------------------------------------------------- I see an unsustainable situation between the US and China and between the Chinese Government and the Chinese People. The $900 Billion in US treasury bonds held by the chinese government represents money earned by the people and intercepted by the leaders (there is even more that has been intercepted and spent for the leadership's pleasure). One thing that concerns me is that China seems to go through political upheaval every 50-70 years and the current government hasn't found a way to share the newfound prosperity with the countryside where these upheavals traditionally come from. There is a saying, "more money, more problems," and the we will certainly see this play out over the next decade with China. You might feel that your country is still a developing country but the rest of the world feels that you have arrived as a world power and it is time to start acting like a mature and responsible country on the world stage. A more nuanced look at china will see that there is actually a developed country along the coast with ~400 million people and a developing country on the interior with ~900 million people. | |
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