[Mike Cash]

How's things over there, anyway, Mike? News coverage has, rather predictably, slacked off.

Things are getting back to normal for those of us in areas not directly affected by the quake, tsunami, or nuclear evacuations. Fuel distribution is largely back to normal, although production capacity is still not back to 100%. Japan's refineries and station operators deserve a good word for almost universally refraining from price gouging during the shortages (I only saw one station that was gouging, with all others exactly at or very near pre-quake prices).

Modern economies result in far-flung areas being interconnected in such complex ways that I don't think we yet know the full effects. It is rather easy to predict shortages in finished goods that come from directly affected areas, but so many companies get parts and components from distant areas that it will likely be a while before industry gets a full grasp of the situation. Those that rely on stuff from affected areas will have to source their parts/components from different areas.

Food distribution seems to have straightened out and it would appear that the initial shortages were largely due to hoarding than to any genuine lack of goods. Naturally, just as with manufactured goods, foods produced in the affected areas are not available, but this doesn't cause any food supply hardship to the nation as a whole. There are concerns about food (including dairy products) produced in the areas nearest the nuclear power plant(s) that have suffered damage and radiation leaks. The hardest effect from that will be the economic effect on those whose livelihoods rely on growing, processing, and distributing food from those areas. For the rest of us any resultant shortfalls will just be inconveniences, as supply can be made up by switching foods or increasing imports. (Japan hasn't domestically produced enough calories to feed itself in decades, so this is nothing new).

Power shortages from reduced electrical generating capacity are a matter of concern for the upcoming high-demand summer months and at the moment primarily are just an inconvenience. Rolling blackouts are largely in abeyance for the time being, as municipalities, industry, and individuals are making serious efforts to curb demand in order to avoid the need for blackouts. How well we manage that in the heat of summer remains to be seen.

Some areas around Tokyo Bay which were built on land reclaimed from the bay have suffered from soil liquefaction, with buildings tilted and some areas shoved up and others dropped down. This also wreaked havoc with the water and sewer mains in places. Some rather massive public works projects are going to be required to put things back in order in those areas.

Japan has for quite a long time suffered from a bloated construction industry, which the government has attempted to keep propped up via various projects of questionable need. The good thing about this is that it means we do have a good supply of men, equipment, and expertise to accomplish rebuilding. The money to do it is another matter, though. One thing I haven't seen discussed anywhere is what I predict to be a shortage of dump trucks to accomplish all this work. We have about a zillion of them, but each year a great many of them come down from the Tohoku region (northern Japan) to earn some money while their homes are snowed in. With a seemingly endless amount of clean-up work to be done in the quake/tsunami ravaged areas I don't see how it can do other than result in a shortage of dump trucks available for construction projects in the greater Tokyo area (and other areas). We'll just have to wait and see about that, I suppose.

[Ratmagiclady]

Thanks, Mike.