Originally posted by newarts Part of the reason that supermajor integrated oil and gas companies "win" every year regardless of whether the price of oil is high or low is because they have balanced downstream (refinery and retail) and upstream (exploration and production) operations.
When the price of oil is high downstream operations are unprofitable or even loss leaders while the upstream operations rake in the big bucks. When the price of oil is low, exactly the opposite trend occurs where the refineries and gas stations keep the upstream operations afloat through the harsh winter of the commodities cycle.
The other thing is that the price of oil you see being reported is for a futures contract on a barrel of oil 1-2 months down the road while the price at the pump is more reflective of the price paid 2 months ago by the refiner. The retail gas business can also be the kind of thing where you have a game of chicken going on between competitors with the manager of the shell station looking across the street at the exxon station all day to see if they have changed their price and vice-versa. When they see the price of oil go up they don't need to hesitate to raise the price because if the other guy keeps his price low, he will sell all his cheap gas and be less profitable tomorrow when he has to order more gas and raise his price even higher. When prices are falling and the gas is barely profitable they might take their sweet time to drop the prices as they try to squeeze some profit out of their customers before they catch on and roll a mile down the road to the next set of service stations.