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08-10-2011, 10:47 AM   #1
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Some interesting new polling / fallout from the debt crisis

New CNN Poll:

QuoteQuote:
Democratic Party: Favorable 47%, Unfavorable 47%
Republican Party: Favorable 33%, Unfavorable 59%
The last poll before this one was from July 20th when the numbers were
Dem: Fav: 45%, Unfav 49%
GOP: Fav: 41%, Unfav 55%

Boehner's favorables in the CNN poll went from +11 (43/32) three weeks ago to -7 (33/40) now.

These are holy shit bad numbers for the GOP.


***


Additionally, Public Policy Polling polled CO and NC (swing states) on the fallout of the debt deal: Public Policy Polling: Swing State Deficit Polling

QuoteQuote:
With such an unpopular deal it's hard to really crown a political 'winner' but to the extent there is one it's Barack Obama. Here's why Obama's the nominal winner. Among voters who support the deal, they're more prone to give Obama the credit than Congressional Republicans. And among voters who oppose the deal, they're more inclined to blame the GOP than the President. In Colorado 51% of voters who support it say Obama was more responsible to only 18% who say Congressional Republicans. In North Carolina it's a closer spread but 33% of supporters credit Obama to 30% for the GOP.

When it comes to the blame game among voters displeased with the compromise 33% in Colorado fault Congressional Republicans more to 23% for Obama and in North Carolina 35% say the GOP is more at fault to 21% who lay it more on the President.

The biggest indication that Obama came out ahead on this one may be in polls we'll release later this week though—Obama is ahead of Mitt Romney in both of these states.
The debt deal as a whole is really unpopular with just about everyone, and just about everyone thinks it'll be bad for the economy. Might be bad news for incumbents trying to get re-elected: Debt Deal Could Be a Job-Killer For Incumbents - NYTimes.com

08-10-2011, 12:26 PM   #2
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Yeah well, look at Wisconsin. These polls don't mean all that much when it comes to actual voting.
08-10-2011, 01:03 PM   #3
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Wisconsin is it's own animal, IMO.
08-10-2011, 01:24 PM   #4
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Very rarely will you learn anything useful from polls at this point in the electoral cycle. Until you have a field of committed candidates and you start talking about likely voters and you slice the data by jurisdiction, the polls are just fluff to feed the 24 hour news cycle.

You can say WI is its own animal, but take a look at this roundup of contemporaneous polls regarding Walker's reforms in Wisconsin and think about how well they predicted yesterday's election.
The Polls are In: U.S. Voters Overwhelmingly Disapprove of Walker’s Attack on Public Employees

08-10-2011, 01:32 PM   #5
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Mike, very true - what counted for yesterday were any polls that were specifically done in those districts voting. And for next week, polls that are specifically done in the districts involved then.

And with districting, as well as the electoral college, as we know, a majority in general polling often turns into something else when actual votes are counted. And this is in fact one of the Republican strategies in this past cycle - to gain control at redistricting time, so as to concentrate their vote districts and thus lock in future elections.
08-10-2011, 02:06 PM   #6
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QuoteOriginally posted by Nesster Quote
Yeah well, look at Wisconsin. These polls don't mean all that much when it comes to actual voting.
Actually, these results were pretty close to what the polling said they would be. Final Wis. Recall Poll: GOPers Have the Edge | Mother Jones

As someone pointed out in another thread, state legislature races are often as much about personality as politics. The mood of the country as a whole says little about how many of a small group of voters of one side or the other will show up an vote in a special election.
08-10-2011, 02:24 PM   #7
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
Actually, these results were pretty close to what the polling said they would be. Final Wis. Recall Poll: GOPers Have the Edge | Mother Jones
These polls were the more meaningful types that are polling likely voters in the district and asking whether they will vote for Candidate A or Candidate B. The polls in the OP were totally different animals.

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