Originally posted by pickles jolepp....I am not a "Political Expert".
So, as you seem to have an interest in what's going on in Syria, in "layman's terms", could you please give me your opinion of what's going on there....what is the problem/the issues etc etc, & what do you feel will be the eventual outcome?
Thank You, Pickles.
Well, I'm no expert either. I've been interested enough to follow what goes on in Syria; I suppose it is the most active current scene of the 'Arab spring', inspiring both hope and grave concern. As a part of that I have been posting links to stories about the developments figuring others might be interested (or that any rate it would not be too much of a disturbance
).
The (very brief) history of it is that of a country ruled by an iron-fisted autocratic regime. When the former top man, Hafez al-Assad died and was replaced by his son Bashar in 2000, there was a period of 'Damascus spring', when it seemed that the system might be headed towards reform, but in the end the regime chose to resume repression. Despite this, the 'Arab spring' apparently re-kindled the Damascus one and this time the regime has been unable to stamp this out, instead it seems that the opposition has slowly but steadily been getting more organized and powerful. Currently the country appears to be in a state between civil unrest and civil war, very close to the latter; it is difficult to say exactly where the line gets crossed, this is not helped by the regime restricting the operation of foreign press (and controlling the domestic one as well as access to the Internet within the country).
My guess is that the situation continues to develop towards an actual civil war. The UN plan (blocked by Russia and China) sought to prevent this by having Bashar al-Assad to step down. This would have implied the rest of the regime carrying on and implementing reforms, which further implied the current regime giving up power down the line (which seldom happens, but at least that could have softened the transition).
A problem with predicting what might happen is that it is not as clear who actually is in power as it was when Hafez al-Assad was the de-facto dictator. Actually, the contenders may not know themselves: e.g. accepting the Arab League plan which called for an immediate end of violence against the civilians and then carrying on with that in front of the Arab League observers could simply mean the younger al-Assad does not fully control the army / security services.