[jolepp]

BBC News - Is a US-Iran maritime clash inevitable?

[pickles]

Following on...with respect to "Iran"....here in Aus yesterday, I heard on the radio of a so-called C.I.A. "spy" that had been arrested in Iran, who had been condemned to death.....any news on that?
Cheers, Pickles.

[Parallax]

Following on...with respect to "Iran"....here in Aus yesterday, I heard on the radio of a so-called C.I.A. "spy" that had been arrested in Iran, who had been condemned to death.....any news on that?
Cheers, Pickles.

It was a former U,S, military member visiting relatives in Iran. Iran sentences former U.S. Marine accused of being a 'CIA spy' to death | Mail Online

[jolepp]

...
Administration officials and Iran analysts said they continued to believe that Iran’s threats to close the strait, coming amid deep frictions over Iran’s nuclear program and possible sanctions, were bluster and an attempt to drive up the price of oil. Blocking the route for the vast majority of Iran’s petroleum exports — and for its food and consumer imports — would amount to economic suicide.

“They would basically be taking a vow of poverty with themselves,” said Dennis B. Ross, who until last month was one of President Obama’s most influential advisers on Iran. “I don’t think they’re in such a mood of self sacrifice.”

But Pentagon officials, who plan for every contingency, said that, however unlikely, Iran does have the military capability to close the strait. Although Iran’s naval forces are hardly a match for those of the United States, for two decades Iran has been investing in the weaponry of “asymmetric warfare” — mines, fleets of heavily armed speed boats and antiship cruise missiles hidden along Iran’s 1,000 miles of Persian Gulf coastline — which have become a threat to the world’s most powerful navy.

“The simple answer is yes, they can block it,” General Dempsey said on CBS on Sunday.

Estimates by naval analysts of how long it could take for American forces to reopen the strait range from a day to several months, but the consensus is that while Iran’s naval forces could inflict damage, they would ultimately be destroyed.
...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/13/world/middleeast/us-warns-top-iran-leader-...hormuz.html?hp

[jolepp]

Nuclear expert: Iran ready to make nuclear weapon next year (HS)

[jolepp]

(CNN) -- The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln arrived in the Arabian Sea on Thursday, Navy officials said, a likely prelude to testing Iran's recent warning against sending a U.S. carrier through the Strait of Hormuz.
...

USS Abraham Lincoln sails into waters off Iran - CNN.com

[jolepp]

European Union foreign ministers are expected to announce a phased ban on the purchase of oil from Iran at a meeting in Brussels.
...
Meanwhile, the Pentagon said the US aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, as well as a British Royal Navy frigate and a French warship, have passed through the Straits of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf without incident in the wake of Iranian threats to block the trade route.
...

BBC News - EU Iran sanctions: Nations poised to ban Iran oil imports

edit:

European Union foreign ministers have formally adopted an oil embargo against Iran over its nuclear programme.

The sanctions involve an immediate ban on all new oil contracts with Iran, while existing contracts will be honoured until 1 July.
...
Extra restrictive measures on Iran's central bank are also expected to be agreed by EU ministers, although no further details have been given.
...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16674660

---

Last edited by jolepp; 01-23-2012 at 04:43 AM.

[jolepp]

The head of Iran's state oil company said Sunday that the price of crude will reach $120 to $150 per barrel, as officials in Tehran prepare to discuss a ban on crude sales to European Union countries in retaliation for an EU embargo.
...

Iran official says oil could reach $150 per barrel - World - CBC News

Oil price seems to have been hovering around the $100 /bbl mark lately (http://www.oil-price.net/):

[CG-23 Sailor]

as officials in Tehran prepare to discuss a ban on crude sales to European Union countries in retaliation for an EU embargo.

Do the Morons in Tehran even understand what an Embargo is?
I ran across a person on another site that also was screwed up in just what an "embargo" is. They thought it was a "blockade" which of course is something else entirely.

A blockade means you are cutting off a country's ability to sell or buy goods from other countries.

An embargo on the other hand simply means a country refuses to buy from or sell to another country. Every country in the world has the right of self determination. they have the RIGHT to decide who they wish to buy and sell from. And as long as the other country is willing to buy and sell from them as well...then you have a trade agreement.

Iran acts as though other countries HAVE to buy from THEM (Iran). Guess what Iran... If they don't like you, they can buy elsewhere! they have that right!

And again... Iran is preparing to BAN sales to the EU... Just what sales are being banned if they (The EU) are refusing to buy from them?
As I said... they're MORONS!!!!

[Ratmagiclady]

And again... Iran is preparing to BAN sales to the EU... Just what sales are being banned if they (The EU) are refusing to buy from them?
As I said... they're MORONS!!!!

Actually, not quite so on that count: what Iran's threatening to do is beat that embargo to the punch by cutting off the oil *before* some of the EU countries have time to make arrangements from other sources: it could actually cause some significant disruption.

[CG-23 Sailor]

Yes it is still them (Iran) being morons.

It may come earlier than they (The EU) had planned for but they still planned on NOT having Iran's oil.

Iran needs to sell their oil which is why they are pissed that the EU won't buy it from them. So they refuse to sell it? thereby shooting themselves in the foot and causing the very thing they fear (not selling their oil).

MORONS! on every level.

Iran is nothing more than a bully. And a weak one at that. They rely on fear and intimidation to keep their own people in control and they think fear and intimidation works on other countries as well. And to a few smaller countries it may. But not so America and the EU and other major countries. We call a bully a bully and call them on their threats and what does Iran do? NOTHING. Because they are bullies.

They threatened a US carrier battle-group not to return or they will be destroyed and intimated to the world that the carrier left due to Iranian threats. The Carrier left because she had commitments elsewhere and could care less of Iranian threats. The replacement carrier showed up on time and on schedule and not a whimper of protest much less action on the part of the Iranians.

I have stated it elsewhere on this thread and other sites. Iran has ZERO ability to win a military confrontation with just a single carrier battlegroup. much less that we can field multiple carrier battlegroups and that is JUST the US Navy, throw in our Marines, Air Force, and Army....

It'll be a slaughter and Iran knows it.

We called their bluff, and Iran knows it is holding a pair of deuces.
It's time for them to fold.
But they're morons, so they won't. They'll keep on bluffing that they have a full house even with their cards face up on the table.

[Bramela]

Time Out .........

I think it is about time everybody took a deep breath and backed off just a little. Relevant discussion on the original topic is called for instead of accusation and counter accusation.
I have deleted a couple of posts already and ask that things might cool down a little and avoid further action like Thread Closure,

Thanks guys.

[rawr]

Hmmm. Starving the civilian population through sanctions is not exactly going to generate much love towards Europe or the US within Iran. I guess stopping them importing medicines will be next.

Effects of Iran sanctions painting grim picture:

'A Thomson Reuters headline from today reads: “Iran grain shipments stranded as sanctions bite“. Jonathan Saul and Michael Hogan build on a report from last week detailing how cargo ships destined for Iran, a major importer of grain, are waiting outside Iranian ports stocked with “about 420,000 tonnes” of product, because Tehran, with its blacklisted Central Bank, is finding it increasingly difficult to send “workable” letters of credit. ...

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said in 2010 that the U.S. wants to change the behavior of the Iranian government “without contributing to the suffering of the ordinary people”, but in light of recent events and nightmares that could follow, the opposite seems to be occurring. '

Effects of Iran sanctions painting grim picture

[Wheatfield]

Yes it is still them (Iran) being morons.

It may come earlier than they (The EU) had planned for but they still planned on NOT having Iran's oil.

Iran needs to sell their oil which is why they are pissed that the EU won't buy it from them. So they refuse to sell it? thereby shooting themselves in the foot and causing the very thing they fear (not selling their oil).

MORONS! on every level.

Iran is nothing more than a bully. And a weak one at that. They rely on fear and intimidation to keep their own people in control and they think fear and intimidation works on other countries as well. And to a few smaller countries it may. But not so America and the EU and other major countries. We call a bully a bully and call them on their threats and what does Iran do? NOTHING. Because they are bullies.

They threatened a US carrier battle-group not to return or they will be destroyed and intimated to the world that the carrier left due to Iranian threats. The Carrier left because she had commitments elsewhere and could care less of Iranian threats. The replacement carrier showed up on time and on schedule and not a whimper of protest much less action on the part of the Iranians.

I have stated it elsewhere on this thread and other sites. Iran has ZERO ability to win a military confrontation with just a single carrier battlegroup. much less that we can field multiple carrier battlegroups and that is JUST the US Navy, throw in our Marines, Air Force, and Army....

It'll be a slaughter and Iran knows it.

We called their bluff, and Iran knows it is holding a pair of deuces.
It's time for them to fold.
But they're morons, so they won't. They'll keep on bluffing that they have a full house even with their cards face up on the table.

The problem with this sort of attitude is that all of a sudden you have two school yard bullies taking shots at each other in the schoolyard surrounded by a group of kids who can't really get away from it. The problem with bullies though, is that as often as they hit each other, they miss and hit one of the bystanders.
In the end, no one really wins. The big swaggering bully can knock the stuffing out of the smaller one, but he's also hit enough bystanders that any chance he had of making any friends at that school has gone out the window.
In fact, he's probably going to make enough enemies in the process that he'll find the wheels on his bicycle has flat tires every day.
Bullies in general, are morons. It doesn't matter what continent they live on.

[Jasvox]

Such a reasonable voice...and from the President too. Perhaps more should be thinking as calmly and with cool.

Obama says risky to attack Iran, wants diplomatic fix | Reuters

Jason