[jolepp]

As this thread developed a sideline about the Finnish presidential election I thought I'd move that here to avoid completely hijacking the original thread.

Latest poll results:

The Centre Party’s Paavo Väyrynen and Green League candidate Pekka Haavisto are running neck-and-neck for second place in the upcoming presidential election. A fresh poll commissioned by Helsingin Sanomat and conducted by TNS Gallup gives both candidates 17 per cent support for the first round of the elections.
The lead of the front-runner, the National Coalition Party’s Sauli Niinistö, has narrowed to 39 per cent of those giving an answer. In a poll taken in late December Niinistö was still getting 48 per cent suppor
...
The latest poll puts the other five candidates well behind the top three. Timo Soini of The Finns Party is getting nine per cent, the Left Alliance’s Paavo Arhinmäki and the Social Democrats’ Paavo Lipponen are tied at six per cent, the Christian Democrats’ Sari Essayah is getting three per cent, and the Swedish People’s Party’s Eva Biaudet is getting two per cent.

Poll: Niinistö’s lead narrows; Haavisto and Väyrynen in dead-heat for second place (HS)

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Last edited by jolepp; 01-17-2012 at 05:13 PM.

[Culture]

I thought Timo Soini will get better than that. Anyway I dont follow the politics.

Its strange though. An election is going on in this country and you will hardly know of this if you werent paying attension.

[jolepp]

Soini's poll numbers (9 %) are a bit of a surprise given the recent huge win in the parlamentary election. Lipponen's doing even worse (6 %) is another: from the outset I would have expected him to be the major contender to Niinistö. The current numbers would mean a second round and either Väyrynen or Haavisto running against Niinistö. Then again:

The proportion of undecided voters is considerable - 14 per cent. A new category in the poll consists of those who did not want to voice their opinion: they number 17 per cent. They include some who have already cast ballots in advance voting.

(from HS article above)

I suppose that Niinistö's position from the outset as the favorite by a huge margin has made this election kind of boring: it would still seem that he would be getting to the second round with most votes and then win that by a wide margin no matter who runs against him. With the number of undecided/not telling it *could* even be that Niinistö stil manages to pull 50%+ on the first round.

[Culture]

But I doubt Soini will get more because I think perussuomalainen are more vocal so they will already have partcipated in the poll.

In any case its a shock that within a short peroid of time his followers will have change sides.

But then again he doesnt look like a president, Niinisto does. Just kidding

[jolepp]

... things are surprisingly quiet on the mudslinging and rumour-mongering front. This has been the case all autumn and winter. It is as if the “dirty tricks divisions” of Finland’s political parties had been shut down. The antics of the partner of Green candidate Pekka Haavisto are well known, but reporting has been appropriate, and apparently true. The advance favourite Sauli Niinistö has also had it surprisingly easy. It is as if nobody would want to upset the future president.
...
In anonymous online discussions all kinds of things are written about, but not a single juicy rumour has taken wind. “It has been a clean and civilised election so far. I am extremely surprised in a positive sense”, says political commentator Jussi Lähde, who has followed the campaigning from the inside as well.

The most resilient rumour in the previous presidential election involved a May Day speech that President Tarja Halonen allegedly held. The rumour, which spread by SMS messages and on the internet claimed that in a speech in Helsinki on the First of May 1976, Halonen had spoken in favour of Finland becoming part of the Soviet Union. The rumour was repeatedly debunked, but it nevertheless continued to live a life of its own. There were also less than flattering assessments circulating about Halonen’s character. The election campaign ultimately turned so dirty that in the press conference after the election, the President focused on airing her hurt feelings about the negative campaigning.

Already in the 2000 election, the Centre Party’s Esko Aho was targeted with the most elegant smear. It came from none other than the SDP’s wily Lasse Lehtinen. Before the first round Lehtinen predicted that in the second round the candidates would be “a single parent and the husband of a single parent”.
The single parent was naturally a reference to Halonen. The “single parent’s husband” was Aho, whose family lived in Kannus, while politics kept the father of the family in the Helsinki region.

A new term arose in the election debate: cell phone dad. This was awkward for Aho, who emphasised family values.
...

NEWS ANALYSIS: Smears and dirty tricks largely missing from presidential campaign (HS 10JAN2012)

[jolepp]

Haavisto pulls into 2nd place in YLE poll | News | YLE Uutiset | yle.fi

[Nesster]

Niinistö seems to be in a swoon

[jolepp]

Niinistö seems to be in a swoon

I think it is more about the other canditates getting serious consideration rather than Niinistö having done badly. Everyone has been expecting him to run (as a favorite) for a long time: in the 2000 elections he declined despite doing very well on 'speculative polls' (*), he ran in 2006 and got to the 2nd round against the incumbent Halonen (Halonen: 46.3% Niinistö: 24.1%) and almost won (48.2%). In comparision the other candidates are 'minutemen', that is, that they'd run become clear much closer to the election. Also, even in the latest poll 30% did not name a candidate (undecided or declined to comment), the result of next Sunday's first round would seem more unpredictable than usual although there being a second round would seem virtually certain, with Niinistö still being an extremely strong favorite to win that.

Initially finding candidates to run against Niinistö seemed kind of hard due to his being such a strong favorite e.g. the PM of the previous government (-2011) and Centre Party leader Mari Kiviniemi declined despite being one of the strongest potential canditates (then again Centre took a severe beating in the 2011 parliamentary elections).

(*) "if these were the canditates in the next election who would you vote"

[jolepp]

Voting has ended and the count for the absentee votes (*) are in:

Sauli Niinistö: 40,1%
Paavo Väyrynen: 17,6%
Pekka Haavisto: 14,8%
Timo Soini: 9,5%
...

It would seem that there will be a 2nd round with Niinistö as the favorite as expected, the other canditate being either Väyrynen or Haavisto.

(*) 32,7 % of eligble voters took that option, above results with 44,1% of votes counted (turnover 72,8%), these are counted during the day so the results for them are available once the ballot is closed (20:00 EET). The current count figures can be found here: http://yle.fi/vaalit/tulospalvelu/2012/presidentinvaali/ensimmainen_vaali/candidates.html

[jolepp]

Results with 99.6% of the vote counted

Sauli Niinistö (NCP) 36.9%

Pekka Haavisto (GREEN) 18.7%

Paavo Väyrynen (CEN) 17.6%

Timo Soini (FINNS) 9.4%

Paavo Lipponen (SDP) 6.7%

Paavo Arhinmäki (LA) 5.5%

Eva Biaudet (SPP) 2.7%

Sari Essayah (CD) 2.5%

Presidential elections: Niinistö, Haavisto headed for second round | News | YLE Uutiset | yle.fi

So, a second round between Niinistö and Haavisto 05FEB. the gap between Haavisto and Väyrynen is wide enough so that the votes that remain to be counted (nor the recount) can't change this. More detailed results here: Candidates | Presidential Elections 2012 - Results - First Round | yle.fi.

[jolepp]

First poll since the first round has it 65% for Niinistö, 35% for Haavisto (of those who named a favorite, 25 % of those polled (N=1342) did not though). (source, in Finnish)

[jolepp]

Finland’s two remaining presidential candidates met each other in their first one-on-one televised debate aired by the Finnish Broadcasting Company (YLE) on Thursday evening.

Civil tones prevailed in the debate, and both Green League candidate Pekka Haavisto and National Coalition Party candidate Sauli Niinistö were critical of on-line commentators taking issue with the candidates’ personal lives.

Haavisto said that most of the public has reacted well to the fact that he lives in a registered same-sex relationship with another man, hairdresser Antonio Flores. He also said that it is quite all right that candidates are “poked a bit” about relationships to see how they react to provocation.

National Coalition Party candidate Sauli Niinistö said that public debate on the issue of partners and spouses has been confusing on occasion.

Niinistö also said that he feels that same-sex partners should have exactly the same right as married couples – including the right to adopt children. However, he also said that the title of “marriage” should be reserved for partnerships of men and women.

Niinistö is married to communications director Jenni Haukio, who is three decades younger than he is. Niinistö did not feel that being married to a young woman made him any more likely to win the race than Haavisto.
...

HS: Civility prevails in first debate in second round of presidential election

[Nesster]

Kiitos kovasti for these updates

[jolepp]

Kiitos kovasti for these updates

Ole hyvä . Your interest in the other thread gave me the excuse to start this, otoh I thought this might have value as a curiosity, especially with the primaries going on over there.

(HS's international (English) edition pages look kind of cheesy, likely something they set up during the original .com boom . Very decent of them not having axed it altogether and translating some of their most important stories on a daily basis although there is probably zero business rationale in that, noblesse oblige I suppose )

[Nesster]

This doesn't really have much to do with that, but is kind of interesting:

Goldman Sachs Trader Quits to Pursue Sauna Dream -- Daily Intel

and even further off topic