The Electoral Map Looks Interesting

Ratmagiclady · 03-30-2012, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by jsherman999

FWIW I've always referred to the Democratic party as 'they' also, even though that's how I vote, but when I'm talking to other supporters of my chosen candidate, I use 'we'.

Institutional vs. Communal solidarity, maybe.

Yeah, that's a problem for the Dems, too. But, I consider myself a Green, not that there's much of a party involved there.

As for the mandate to buy corporate insurance, that's actually part of what the GOP really put in, given that there was no public option from the get-go and the insurance companies and all demanded privatized profits be a sacred cow from the get-go: in a sense that's what *they* get out of what concessions they have to make, like spending at least 80 percent on actual health care delivery (Still seems that leaves a lot of advertising and other stuff to be paying into,) ...but they also get a certain segment of lower-risk captive customers: any Constitutional issues about being forced to buy private products are a result of *that,* not what Obama's plan entailed. It's also why, as much of this reform as is actually very good, needed, and actually more popular than the branding 'Obamacare' makes people think, it's just not the long term solution for public health and job-suppressing health insurance costs that it could have been.

Talking points and distortions aside, this ain't actually about Obama's plan as presented, it's what made it through the filibusters and corporate demands, and about how that time and money was used to make the media perception of what this is different from what it actually ever ways: ie, manufacturing nonconsent.

How that'll play out in the corporate media electioneering horse-race-for-ratings-profits, well, that's anyone's guess. But the GOP will be trying to use it for the richest and most fanatical Right they can as always, truth of the matter or interests of the people be damned.

ElJamoquio · 04-01-2012, 02:22 PM

The only way Obama loses in Pennsylvania is if there's a landslide election. I think the last time Pennsylvania voted for a Republican in a non-landslide was Eisenhower.

Virginia is a bit more of a tossup this year but I think it'll be solidly democrat from 2016-20??.

Bottom line: Obama's at 247 before the election even starts. Solid campaigning in [Ohio and Virginia] or [Florida] means that he wins.

jsherman999 · 04-05-2012, 08:57 PM

Originally posted by ElJamoquio

The only way Obama loses in Pennsylvania is if there's a landslide election. I think the last time Pennsylvania voted for a Republican in a non-landslide was Eisenhower.

Virginia is a bit more of a tossup this year but I think it'll be solidly democrat from 2016-20??.

Bottom line: Obama's at 247 before the election even starts. Solid campaigning in [Ohio and Virginia] or [Florida] means that he wins.

.

Your 247 are close to the the Kerry 'baseline states', and you might be right. Interesting article here: RCP: Pathways to 270 for Obama and Romney.

Linked in there is this.

Five paths to victory from the 'Kerry Baseline':

Also, worth mentioning: Gallup: Obama Solidifying Lead Among Independents in Swing States

GeneV · 04-06-2012, 06:12 AM

Of those, the West Path seems the most likely, and the south path the least likely. I think President Obama takes NM and CO. The Florida path is also challenging. Florida seems to be Alabama at the top and New York at the bottom. However, the Dems in the NY part (which includes quite a few friends and relatives) supported Hillary, and have been very squishy on the support of the President. I wonder how many of them will turn out.

jsherman999 · 04-11-2012, 11:29 PM

Originally posted by GeneV

Of those, the West Path seems the most likely, and the south path the least likely. I think President Obama takes NM and CO. The Florida path is also challenging. Florida seems to be Alabama at the top and New York at the bottom. However, the Dems in the NY part (which includes quite a few friends and relatives) supported Hillary, and have been very squishy on the support of the President. I wonder how many of them will turn out.

Romney almost has to win Florida... and he's behind there, as of now. No wonder that's one of the states where the voter-suppression effort is being concentrated.

Some more interesting stuff:

...

341-197, as of right now, in that scenario. An interesting thing about that particular map: Even if Romney turns both Ohio and Florida red there - he still loses.

The Republican super-PACS have their work cut out for them. It's going to get very ugly in the swing states.

.

Nesster · 04-12-2012, 10:30 AM

...however, a lot can and will happen between now and November.

ElJamoquio · 04-12-2012, 11:22 AM

Romney can feasibly win Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. It's possible he could win Virginia.

But I doubt it. My money's been on Obama since last year at this time.

jsherman999 · 04-28-2012, 08:52 PM

A very good electoral map here - Huffpost interactive. Description of it here.

You can click on the individual states to see the latest polling there, explaining why they are the color they are. Very good, bookmarked.

.

04-05-2012, 08:57 PM	#18
jsherman999 Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Photos: Gallery Posts: 8,237 Original Poster	Originally posted by ElJamoquio The only way Obama loses in Pennsylvania is if there's a landslide election. I think the last time Pennsylvania voted for a Republican in a non-landslide was Eisenhower. Virginia is a bit more of a tossup this year but I think it'll be solidly democrat from 2016-20??. Bottom line: Obama's at 247 before the election even starts. Solid campaigning in [Ohio and Virginia] or [Florida] means that he wins. . Your 247 are close to the the Kerry 'baseline states', and you might be right. Interesting article here: RCP: Pathways to 270 for Obama and Romney. Linked in there is this. Five paths to victory from the 'Kerry Baseline': Also, worth mentioning: Gallup: Obama Solidifying Lead Among Independents in Swing States Last edited by jsherman999; 04-05-2012 at 09:06 PM.

04-11-2012, 11:29 PM	#20
jsherman999 Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Photos: Gallery Posts: 8,237 Original Poster	Originally posted by GeneV Of those, the West Path seems the most likely, and the south path the least likely. I think President Obama takes NM and CO. The Florida path is also challenging. Florida seems to be Alabama at the top and New York at the bottom. However, the Dems in the NY part (which includes quite a few friends and relatives) supported Hillary, and have been very squishy on the support of the President. I wonder how many of them will turn out. Romney almost has to win Florida... and he's behind there, as of now. No wonder that's one of the states where the voter-suppression effort is being concentrated. Some more interesting stuff: ... 341-197, as of right now, in that scenario. An interesting thing about that particular map: Even if Romney turns both Ohio and Florida red there - he still loses. The Republican super-PACS have their work cut out for them. It's going to get very ugly in the swing states. . Last edited by jsherman999; 04-11-2012 at 11:43 PM.

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03-30-2012, 10:35 AM	#16
Ratmagiclady Veteran Member Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: GA Photos: Gallery \| Albums Posts: 13,563	Originally posted by jsherman999 FWIW I've always referred to the Democratic party as 'they' also, even though that's how I vote, but when I'm talking to other supporters of my chosen candidate, I use 'we'. Institutional vs. Communal solidarity, maybe. Yeah, that's a problem for the Dems, too. But, I consider myself a Green, not that there's much of a party involved there. As for the mandate to buy corporate insurance, that's actually part of what the GOP really put in, given that there was no public option from the get-go and the insurance companies and all demanded privatized profits be a sacred cow from the get-go: in a sense that's what they get out of what concessions they have to make, like spending at least 80 percent on actual health care delivery (Still seems that leaves a lot of advertising and other stuff to be paying into,) ...but they also get a certain segment of lower-risk captive customers: any Constitutional issues about being forced to buy private products are a result of that, not what Obama's plan entailed. It's also why, as much of this reform as is actually very good, needed, and actually more popular than the branding 'Obamacare' makes people think, it's just not the long term solution for public health and job-suppressing health insurance costs that it could have been. Talking points and distortions aside, this ain't actually about Obama's plan as presented, it's what made it through the filibusters and corporate demands, and about how that time and money was used to make the media perception of what this is different from what it actually ever ways: ie, manufacturing nonconsent. How that'll play out in the corporate media electioneering horse-race-for-ratings-profits, well, that's anyone's guess. But the GOP will be trying to use it for the richest and most fanatical Right they can as always, truth of the matter or interests of the people be damned.

04-01-2012, 02:22 PM	#17
ElJamoquio Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 4,873	The only way Obama loses in Pennsylvania is if there's a landslide election. I think the last time Pennsylvania voted for a Republican in a non-landslide was Eisenhower. Virginia is a bit more of a tossup this year but I think it'll be solidly democrat from 2016-20??. Bottom line: Obama's at 247 before the election even starts. Solid campaigning in [Ohio and Virginia] or [Florida] means that he wins.

04-06-2012, 06:12 AM	#19
GeneV Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Albuquerque NM Photos: Albums Posts: 9,830	Of those, the West Path seems the most likely, and the south path the least likely. I think President Obama takes NM and CO. The Florida path is also challenging. Florida seems to be Alabama at the top and New York at the bottom. However, the Dems in the NY part (which includes quite a few friends and relatives) supported Hillary, and have been very squishy on the support of the President. I wonder how many of them will turn out.

04-12-2012, 10:30 AM	#21
Nesster Veteran Member Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: NJ USA Photos: Gallery Posts: 13,072	...however, a lot can and will happen between now and November.

04-12-2012, 11:22 AM	#22
ElJamoquio Veteran Member Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 4,873	Romney can feasibly win Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina. It's possible he could win Virginia. But I doubt it. My money's been on Obama since last year at this time.

04-28-2012, 08:52 PM	#23
jsherman999 Veteran Member Join Date: Dec 2007 Photos: Gallery Posts: 8,237 Original Poster	A very good electoral map here - Huffpost interactive. Description of it here. You can click on the individual states to see the latest polling there, explaining why they are the color they are. Very good, bookmarked. .