Originally posted by jeffkrol Looking inside the numbers, Obama continues to lead Romney among key parts of his political base, including African Americans (94 percent to 0 percent), Latinos (by a 2-to-1 margin), voters under 35-years-old (52 percent to 41 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent).
Black women account for 6% of the US population, so if you account for that astounding Obama support rate from black voters, the two candidates are in a dead heat for all non-black women. Identity politics gives the president a big leg up with re-election but it is not insurmountable and it should be kept in mind when dealing with statistics because the race and gender should be independent variables but the former seems to have such a powerful determinant that it seriously distorts the effect of the latter in this case.
This is just anecdotal, but I know several people who won't vote against Obama but won't necessarily vote for him because they are just as dissatisfied with his job performance. It will be very interesting to see if the black turnout is anywhere near what it was in 2008.