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11-09-2012, 11:02 AM   #16
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
Jim, I don't know what qualifies as a "runaway" but this popular vote is a pretty solid victory these days, and it really was a runaway (IMHO) in the electoral college, where it counts. The last two times a Republican won, it was with barely the minimum in the Electoral College. The trend extended to congress as well. Three out of the last four elections have gone to the Dems. It is fine with me if the Republicans don't think there is something to learn from that, but I think there really is a message there.
George W Bush lost the popular vote in 2000. He probably lost the popular vote in Florida, we'll never know for sure, and the Supreme Court appointed him President. But he still claimed a mandate.

11-09-2012, 11:05 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
It is fine with me if the Republicans don't think there is something to learn from that,
Fine with me, too. I vote for whomever I think will do the least damage if elected. Sometimes it's a Republican, sometimes it isn't.
11-09-2012, 11:22 AM   #18
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This is a good read by David Frum.

David Frum: How the GOP Got Stuck in the Past - Newsweek and The Daily Beast
11-09-2012, 11:26 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
George W Bush lost the popular vote in 2000. He probably lost the popular vote in Florida, we'll never know for sure, and the Supreme Court appointed him President. But he still claimed a mandate.
That was a special case, because it was highly questionable whether he won the electoral votes, and if he did, it was by a margin that was razor-thin, even by modern standards.

FWIW, the Dems are up by 30% in total EC Votes since 2000:

GOP 271 + 286 + 173 + 206 = 936
DEM 269 + 251 + 365 + 332 = 1,217

The other thing that is interesting about this is that the states which are over-represented in the EC are almost all red states.


Last edited by GeneV; 11-09-2012 at 11:36 AM.
11-09-2012, 11:37 AM   #20
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
That was a special case, because it was highly questionable whether he won the electoral votes, and if he did, it was by a margin that was razor-thin, even by modern standards.

FWIW, the Dems are up by 30% in total EC Votes since 2000:

GOP 271 + 286 + 173 + 206 = 936
DEM 269 + 251 + 365 + 332 = 1,217
I love what ifs. What if Gore had done us all a favor and just managed to carry his home state?
11-09-2012, 12:08 PM   #21
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
I love what ifs. What if Gore had done us all a favor and just managed to carry his home state?
That state has trended red for a long time, now and those would have been 40,000 tough votes to change. His better shot would have been swinging 3,500 more votes in New Hampshire.

Last edited by GeneV; 11-09-2012 at 12:14 PM.
11-09-2012, 12:09 PM - 1 Like   #22
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It seems like they have made a big pivot on immigration in the past few days. If they pass immigration reform, take away that wedge issue between them and hispanics it will be interesting to see the net results.
11-09-2012, 12:17 PM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by mikemike Quote
It seems like they have made a big pivot on immigration in the past few days.
They do realise the election is over already, don't they?

If they're thinking about 2014/16, it would be nice to see them at least go through the motions of putting some thought into their policies, rather than just some kneejerk reaction before the dust settles on the Presidential election. I wonder how good Latinos are at spotting blatant pandering?

Quite good, I imagine.

11-09-2012, 12:19 PM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by GeneV Quote
That state has trended red for a long time, now and those would have been 40,000 tough votes to change. His better shot would have been swinging 3,500 more votes in New Hampshire.
Thank you Gobbler's Notch, or whatever NH, for giving us the first 4 years of W and two unfunded wars...
11-09-2012, 12:23 PM   #25
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Being in a largely Hispanic state with an anti-immigration conservative Republican Hispanic governor, I think the immigration wedge is overstated. Generally, rich Latinos here vote like rich Anglos, and poor Latinos vote like other poor. Pulling that demographic out based solely upon immigration is too superficial. Also, to a New Mexican whose Spanish heritage here goes back 300 years or to a recent Mexican immigrant, a Cuban from Florida is not necessarily considered the same.
11-09-2012, 12:26 PM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
Thank you Gobbler's Notch, or whatever NH, for giving us the first 4 years of W and two unfunded wars...
Yes, but they were blue the two elections before with Gore on the ticket and every presidential election since. It seems like he really fell down by not getting that one.
11-09-2012, 02:16 PM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by boriscleto Quote
George W Bush lost the popular vote in 2000. He probably lost the popular vote in Florida, we'll never know for sure, and the Supreme Court appointed him President. But he still claimed a mandate.
No, the Florida Supreme Court tried to appoint Algore. The U.S. Supreme Court told them that was a no-no and they had to follow Florida law.
11-09-2012, 02:53 PM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by ihasa Quote
They do realise the election is over already, don't they?

If they're thinking about 2014/16, it would be nice to see them at least go through the motions of putting some thought into their policies, rather than just some kneejerk reaction before the dust settles on the Presidential election. I wonder how good Latinos are at spotting blatant pandering?

Quite good, I imagine.
If comprehensive immigration reform is passed in a bipartisan fashion, I don't think that will be viewed as pandering because it actually accomplishes something. I was talking with a girl in my office on Wednesday who is from Honduras about PR statehood and she was like, "thats great, hispanics will have more voting power and we can finally get something done about immigration because they might get more democrats in congress." Then I explained, "Puerto Ricans are already US citizens and I wouldn't count them as democrats just yet because they are very catholic and they are already citizens so they don't have to make the choice between a green card so they can enjoy earthly life in the US and eternity in hell because of abortion and gays." She started crying, because she is also very catholic, she goes to church during lunch 2-3 times a week, and she had just voted for Obama yesterday. If you remove the immigration issue, I wonder how much other social issues then become a wedge between democrats and hispanics. Social safety net stuff benefits them because they tend to skew towards the lower end of the economic spectrum and have larger families but they are more religious and more traditionally religious than most other democrats. Blacks are also very religious but more baptist than catholic and black baptist denominations that don't seem to give a damn about abortion.
11-09-2012, 03:17 PM   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by Parallax Quote
No, the Florida Supreme Court tried to appoint Algore. The U.S. Supreme Court told them that was a no-no and they had to follow Florida law.
The Florida Supreme Court did not appoint Al Gore, it ordered a recount which may or may not have helped Gore. The majority opinion of the SCOTUS told the Florida Supreme Court they could not follow Florida law and procedure because (the SCOTUS claimed) it would violate equal protection to do recounts only in the counties requested in the manner pursuant to Florida law. Three judges also disagreed with the interpretation of Florida law, but the SCOTUS actually has no power to overturn the highest state court on a matter of state law. The SCOTUS also halted the ballot count while they were considering the case, and then in the decision, held the recount could not resume because there was now no time. Chutzpah.
11-09-2012, 04:14 PM   #30
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I think both parties have need to do extensive postmortems on their performance. Not a lot changed....and the race for President....wasn't won by a landslide predicted by entertainer Bob Dylan.
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