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03-13-2008, 05:36 AM   #16
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Not that I understand much about economies but...

1. It is recession NOT bankruptcy they're talking about...unless they're the same thing.
2. You WILL see that the price of oil will SOON be in EURO not USD...wait and see
3. Did you know the Federal Reserve is privately owned...I didn't...I might be wrong.

03-13-2008, 06:09 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by bymy141 Quote
I travel a lot and news always is different in the various parts of the world.

Today, driving from Brussels home to the Netherlands, there was an elaborate analysis of the US economy on the radio.

The economists were openly speculating on a fore coming bankruptcy of the USA.

They combine a number of recent developments to substantiate their argument:
• a further and ever faster devaluation of the dollar,
• the still growing sub prime financial crisis,
• the fast dropping of US real estate prices,
• the rising cost of trade insurance with the US and wrong answer by the FED (decrease of interest instead of increasing interest),
• the unbelievable high and ever growing USA trade deficit, without a policy to correct this problem in the foreseeable future,
• the lowering of taxes instead of lowering national budgets and increasing taxes,
• the complete lack of trust in the banking system,
• the rising cost of oil,
• the growing industrial and financial role of India and China becoming more important to world economy than the USA.

Are there any Americans out there that would like to comment on this?
Do you believe it could happen? Do people hear such analysis in the US media as well?
Will you guys be able to allow yourself a K30D in 2009?

- Bert
Bert,

Thanks for the doom and gloom

In answer to European speculation: Anything is possible, but in todays media coverage few look at cyclical history and few have any interest in ontent and context of their spew of information to the general public.

On your topics:
#1... Sure the dollar is falling. Sure does piss me off with respect to taking the long and extended Italian Holiday I was looking forward to. Nonetheless, the Euro currently is right where it was when it came in to being against the American Dollar. Roughly 1 Euro to 1.50 American. And yes there has been a massive dip in the Euros value during that time to about 1 Euro to .76 American. But this type of valuation has always been longitudinally in constant fluctuation. In time the pendulum will swing in the other direction.

#2... We had this same shit hit the economic scene under President Carter back in the early 80's where Amercans bailed out their overspending Savings and Loan (kinda like banks) to an inflation adjusted amount that exceeds todays blip on the radar screen of sub prime.

#3... Idiots who bought into interest only mortgages or who bought home that exceeded the standard 25% of their take home... sorry... got what they paid for. Realtor and bankers ultimately don't give a crap about anything but cash and for those not using day to day common sense on what they can afford... well, unfortunately they pay the price and hopefully will learn... next time.

#4... Tariffs? Its about time the US started putting tariffs on certain goods.

#5...Trade deficets? Well, as long as we continue to elect officials who live in Washington...FOREVER... the less likely the willl seem inclined to control expenditures. After all, the government doesn't work for profit... it can tax any amount that it wants to and the public does not appear to want to do much to stop them... mainly because we are a country that it turning into a handout country that wants everything for nothing.

#6... The government has plenty of money. They don't need to tax more. They DO need to learn to stop spending what they don't have and they also need to stop raiding SS funds and health care funds.

#7... Banking. Has anyone ever trusted the banking community? We are hostages. And what is the alternative... becasue people with power (and money) tend to stay in power (Sorry Elliot Spitzer... for you that isn't the case).

#8... The rising cost of oil... at least in the US is almost 100% a result of a 50% devaluation of the dollar over the pst two years. Since the $ is the currency of purchase then said devaluation would make the 110 dollar a barrel oil today only $55 if non deflated over the past tow years.

#9... China and India are a percieved threat. But that is truly of minor concern. These nations have a right to growth, better quality of life and standard of living. In an ideal world all countries will benefit from their emergence. No need to have a xenophobic world


In the end, the world (US any way... though I think Europe does it too) goes through these cycles every 6-8 years. The sky always falls for a year and revoers and does well for the next 7 or so. As FDR said , "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." So, don't worry be happy.

One other thing. Most people in crisis in the US today are people that have not learn to manage their income correctly or how to handle their finances and to live within their means. Their are times in life where, when you want something, you take stock of your assets and say no or sacrifice some other percieved need as a trade off. There are few common folk (9-5'ers) who can have it all and then be prepared for retirement.

Down from the soapbox now.

Stephen
03-13-2008, 06:18 AM   #18
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QuoteOriginally posted by JCSullivan Quote
3. Did you know the Federal Reserve is privately owned...I didn't...I might be wrong.
You are right. The Fed is privately owned. There is a lot more to this if you dig into it. The Central Bank system is privately owned. Some say it is old, old money that is still in control.

Fact is that most (if not all currencies) now have no real backing. If we assume that gold's value hasn't changed over the last year, then using gold as the standard, the dollar has about 66% of it's value compared to a year ago. Hmmm... Maybe the price of oil hasn't risen, it is the dollar's value that has fallen.

Did you know that the great depression in the 1930s was caused by the newly formed Fed? It appears that they are doing it again!
03-13-2008, 07:46 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by SCGushue Quote
#4... Tariffs? Its about time the US started putting tariffs on certain goods.

#5...Trade deficets? Well, as long as we continue to elect officials who live in Washington...FOREVER... the less likely the willl seem inclined to control expenditures.

#9... China and India are a percieved threat. But that is truly of minor concern. These nations have a right to growth, better quality of life and standard of living. In an ideal world all countries will benefit from their emergence. No need to have a xenophobic world
Go and find yourself a decent graph of US foreign debt. The trade deficits are what is 'buying' the US its current foreign credit. Whether you like it or not, your country can't realistically piss off China, not now that they own so much of your foreign debt. Why do you think China has been buying it up - to strengthen its bargaining position on trade matters.

To get America out of the giant fiscal hole it is in, your politicians will make some serious trade related concessions. It has happened before, in the 80s, with Japan, and it will happen again with China.

There is no single global superpower, it comes and goes. Some countries are fading, some are rising - the wise accept this and start planning for the future, rather than living in the past and stubbornly believing tomorrow will be the same as yesterday.

By the way - two of your statements, #4 and #9 are hypocritical. Tariffs and subsidies *are* xenophobia, pure and simple.

03-13-2008, 08:11 AM   #20
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To the discussion that was described in the OP... to the talking heads involved in the discussion, what a uniquely "european-minded" sentiment... Let me explain what I mean by that.

o My father, who escaped communism in Hungary and arrived here to live the very definition of the american dream through his sweat and hard work with a manufacturing company he founded to prosper and leave his family with a great life... would not agree. He was "USA" all the way. His heart was still back home, but his head was here.

o My mother, who my father was able to "extract" from Hungary after 5 years, and lived here for 35'ish years, never could stand the US... put the entire house into a shipping container (including the wall to wall carpeting and kitchen cabinets; I kid you not), and moved back to Hungary after my father died (and boy is she sorry now!!! you can't imagine.).

It just so happens she too (my mother) was always expecting the US economy & banking system to collapse and lose all the money she stored away in the bank. WTF? I never could understand where the heck she was getting that idea. Totally obsured to me (and my father). But her heart and head were both back in Europe. My father's? Just his heart, not his head.

So that why I'm saying those who think the US economy will "collapse" is an entirely "european-minded" sentiment.

Confused, this is the "Everything Else" forum. This discussion is perfectly at home and appropriate here. It's amazing how little of this type of discussion there is on this board actually. For a kick visit the MBWorld.org open discussion forums one day if you'd like to see real rip-roaring good threads once "war" or "terror" et al is mentioned having nothing to do with the normal charter of the message board but on a topic that's sure to raise some heated opinions (it's so much more subdued these days) ...

Last edited by m8o; 03-13-2008 at 08:24 AM.
03-13-2008, 08:17 AM   #21
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So funny - hard claims based on OPEC using the dollar when they're moving to use the Euro..

And it makes perfect sense and you WILL see it.

When the euro was introduced in 2002 1 dollar was worth 1.4 euros thereabouts - Now the opposite is true, as of today, the dollar is worth only .65 euros.. Have a look at the 180 day trend here Euro Exchange Rate Graph - US Dollar - Historical Exchange Rates

The dollar has steadily been slipping against the euro, and has steadily been dragging down global oil prices (while increasing US oil prices)... OPEC has to switch to the euro before the US drags them into the toilet.

See, OPEC takes those dollars to spend on other things but if the dollars aren't worth anything globally, they don't get to buy as much and they don't like that. If they switch to the euro, they get to trade in a more stable currency and buy more goods. Meanwhile, since the euro is steadily increasing and the US dollar is steadily decreasing (has been for years now), the US can kiss their ass goodbye.. Think depression, poverty, and a general breakdown of society within a few short years, maybe this year.
03-13-2008, 08:20 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by SCGushue Quote
#6... The government has plenty of money. They don't need to tax more. They DO need to learn to stop spending what they don't have and they also need to stop raiding SS funds and health care funds.

#7... Banking. Has anyone ever trusted the banking community? We are hostages. And what is the alternative... becasue people with power (and money) tend to stay in power (Sorry Elliot Spitzer... for you that isn't the case).
i find this to be pretty funny. the gov has no money, it borrows from the fed which is a private bank and licensed to print money as it sees fit. bankers own the country. without going into the paranoid speak; crashing the us economy makes sense for the people that own it.

03-13-2008, 08:23 AM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by Confused Quote
Hi Gooshin


Remember what happened to the German economy in the 1930's when their government adopted this particular risky business model in a futile attempt to combat inflation, resulting in ordinary citizens pushing increasingly worthless barrowloads of bank-notes around the streets to pay for goods ! Zimbawe is a modern day example of this kind of idiocy, with inflation rates running into telephone numbers.......that way lays total madness !
exactly!

the US is going towards a downward spiral.

they need to start becoming self sustained and increase internal production.

right now OPEC is the only thing holding america together.
03-13-2008, 08:51 AM   #24
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Going towards a downward spiral? More like, are in a downward spiral!

I can only kick myself in the ass for being so damn stubborn when being told to invest in the euro in 2002. Not only should I have invested in the euro, had I left this place then I would be set up quite nice somewhere in southern europe by now..
03-13-2008, 09:28 AM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by m8o Quote
To the discussion that was described in the OP... to the talking heads involved in the discussion, what a uniquely "european-minded" sentiment...
You are probably right. It may be like with a front passenger in a fast-driving car getting nervous while the driver thinks "everything's under control, don't care"

But accidents do happen, so we better stay nervous...


And no, we don't talk about recession. We talk about bankruptcy, things like in here: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/07/14/cnusa14.xml

(which is 2 years old, but recent events make it more plausible)
03-13-2008, 09:39 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by cpopham Quote
Go and find yourself a decent graph of US foreign debt. The trade deficits are what is 'buying' the US its current foreign credit. Whether you like it or not, your country can't realistically piss off China, not now that they own so much of your foreign debt. Why do you think China has been buying it up - to strengthen its bargaining position on trade matters.

I know of the US debt. I can assure you that I have nothing to do with it. I believe in fiscal accountability at all levels of my life. When I have served in publically elected positions for 12 years of my life I preached accountability and called fellow politicians out publicly for duplicity in budgeting and wasteful spending. Ulltimately politicians end up giving everything away becasue they leave it for their successors to clean up.

To get America out of the giant fiscal hole it is in, your politicians will make some serious trade related concessions. It has happened before, in the 80s, with Japan, and it will happen again with China.

Our politicians, like most other nations, have not got the fortituted to do what's right. The masses do not want to take the time to learn to vote correctly or learn to think for themselves. So we go on as a nation electing the same type of "meat" to office that created so many of the blunders that we see today. Good, honest potential leaders of this nation don't want to get involved in politics



There is no single global superpower, it comes and goes. Some countries are fading, some are rising - the wise accept this and start planning for the future, rather than living in the past and stubbornly believing tomorrow will be the same as yesterday.

Did you see me say that anywhere? I don't think the US is one.... per se.

By the way - two of your statements, #4 and #9 are hypocritical. Tariffs and subsidies *are* xenophobia, pure and simple.

PErhaps you are reading me wrongly. Tariffs on foreign subsidised goods is not all together a bad idea as long as it is not shotgunned to cover everything. As for China and India, all I was saying is that their countries have a right to access global resources just like any other nation. They are not the threat "xenophobically" that many see them to be. There is nothing wrong with fair competition as long as "dumping" doesn't occur.


Stephen
03-13-2008, 09:43 AM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by Tom M Quote
See, OPEC takes those dollars to spend on other things but if the dollars aren't worth anything globally, they don't get to buy as much and they don't like that.
Not really so, imo.
Instead of last year getting 70-80 higher US dollars a barrel OPEC is now getting 100-110 lower US dollars. They are being handsomely compensated for.
03-13-2008, 10:50 AM   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by Kguru Quote
Not really so, imo.
Instead of last year getting 70-80 higher US dollars a barrel OPEC is now getting 100-110 lower US dollars. They are being handsomely compensated for.
My point is - the 110 dollars they collect today is only worth 100 dollars tomorrow!! At this point being stuck holding US dollars is a risky business. I mean, it is risky for me and I'm not even a flea on the elephants ass!
03-13-2008, 09:14 PM   #29
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i watched a video with ron paul speaking, quite interesting if you ask me YouTube - Ron Paul *OUR EMPIRE IS COMING DOWN!* quite sad too
03-14-2008, 05:27 AM   #30
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We need more patriotic politicians like Ron Paul. Too bad he didn't stand a chance at President...
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