[deadzone]

And of course there is this:

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts Wall Street fears a big US bank is in trouble - Times Online

How about a major U.S. Bank collapse? Does this help us keep our rose glasses on our faces or does it knock them off with a unexpected slap? The death of a banking institution like Bear Sterns seems somehow significant.

[stewart_photo]

...(snip) Besides this, U.S. homeland security doesn't allow postings taking the US strength into question. The original poster is violating federal law. You better have no travel plans for the U.S. soon

I'm glad you later admitted the above was a joke. Because, if true, the Department of Homeland Security (DoHS) has changed significantly since I left as a Founding Member several years ago. To set the record straight, according to Presidential Directive (.pdf) and the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the DoHS is charged with defending the critical physical infrastructure of the United States. In the process of that, there is no mandate to impede political or social discourse on any subject. Indeed, the only laws even vaguely close to that are those outlined in the existing United States Code, created by Congress, regarding the individual Subcomponents of the Department (threats against the president and the United States Secret Service, for example). However, the specified Subcomponents, not the DoHS itself, are charged with enforcing those laws.

stewart

[bymy141]

In the end, the world (US any way... though I think Europe does it too) goes through these cycles every 6-8 years. The sky always falls for a year and revoers and does well for the next 7 or so. As FDR said , "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." So, don't worry be happy.

One other thing. Most people in crisis in the US today are people that have not learn to manage their income correctly or how to handle their finances and to live within their means. Their are times in life where, when you want something, you take stock of your assets and say no or sacrifice some other percieved need as a trade off. There are few common folk (9-5'ers) who can have it all and then be prepared for retirement.

Down from the soapbox now.

Stephen

Stephen,

I believe that history is not a guarantee for any future, however it is a very, very strong indicator of how things will develop.

Besides the up and down swing of the economy (wasn't it Marx first writing about that?), you can also recognize the up and down swing of nations, empires and power structures. It is inevitable for the US to loose its position the world in future, both from an economic as from a military perspective. The question is not if, it is when.

Europe is a place, divided between multiple cultures and nations, where such rise and fall of powers happened many, many times over the last 3500 years. (Read Wikipedia on empires). We still do live in reasonable luxury and good health over here.
Looking back in history however, you will see a lot of misery, poverty, misuse of power and sometimes success. This time of luxury is not self-evident. It has not all been stable at all.

I have a son now working in Russia, I’ve been in the US for over a hundred times or more over the last 35 years while working for HP and Sun microsystems, we have friends that live and work in India, China, Thailand and Malaysia. I see this world change, change that is happening more rapid each year. Global economy, travel, communication and all is what is making this speeding up.

China is doing manned space travel, the Russians need to make the space station work, India is developing its own airline industry and you better watch out for China. The Arabs are now joined by the new Asian rich taking over the world financial business, while this industry is in dire position due to greedy CEO’s and sales managers who are crashing the banking system in the western world. Mittal steel is owning most of the world steel production, Wipro is doing in outsourcing most of the worlds ICT business and they have started buying companies here in Europe like the US was doing 30 years ago. The younger populations in these new economy countries are better educated, have better jobs, are becoming consumers as well and they want to achieve something in live.

The economic position of the US is still #1 but declining. The US does not recognize the environmental issues the rest of the world does, therefore US companies are getting behind in developing new energy concepts. EADS has just recently won a defence contract in the US, protests in US politics, how can a foreign nation deliver such airplanes to the US military? Isn’t that what has happened for 50 years the other way around? You can see the US politicians have become too complacent and need to wake up and act fast.

Is this all a negative thing? No, don’t think so. It is how the world is, and always has been and will be. That’s what makes this an interesting planet to live on.
As always there is this up and down swing. In 500 years from now, who knows what will happen. Perhaps Brazil will be the ruling the world and Islam will have conquered the north American countries.

Change is the only constant in history

- Bert

[Confused]

Hi all

The main thing which concerns me and that no media organisations seem to have adequately addressed in any depth is:
"If all these highly respected prudent global banking institutions had so much accumulated financial expertise at their disposal, what the hell were they doing lending all this money to decidedly risky sub-prime mortgage companies in the first place ?"
In many countries, the concept of granting an individual a 100% or greater than 100% mortgage is utterly incomprehensible. If that individual subsequently defaults on the loan some while later and in the intervening period property prices take a tumble, all of a sudden the collateral becomes severely devalued and potentially worthless......take a look at large swathes of depressed middle America to see what I mean.
There was recently a fascinating & revealing interview on British television involving a well-respected financial pundit who saw this storm brewing quite a few years ago. His tale is quite extraordinary in many ways, because in his wisdom, he decided to approach many of the Boards of Directors of numerous City of London financial institutions and made presentations to them in order to express his increasing concerns.
The truly astonishing outcome was that most of these supposed experts didn't actually fully comprehend the perilous situation that their own organisations were actually involved in......shocking but true ! If the vastly over-paid idiots at the top of the pile aren't clued up to the risks that their investment arms are so vulnerable to, g*d help the rest of us. The accepted mantra seems to be, don't rock the boat by asking inconvenient questions, just keep the billions pouring in at ANY cost but expect national governments to pick up the pieces (at huge public expense) when things start to go awry. In other words, Privatise the profits but Nationalise the losses ! Hence the recent embarrassing fiascos at Northern Rock & Bears Stearns.....but don't worry folks, there's far worse to come further down the line, so let's just batten down the hatches and hope it all goes away......

Best regards
Richard

---

Last edited by Confused; 03-14-2008 at 04:38 PM.

[falconeye]

I'm glad you later admitted the above was a joke. Because, if true, the Department of Homeland Security (DoHS) has changed significantly since I left as a Founding Member several years ago.

You are a Founding Member of DoHS? Wow!

And of course it was a joke. After all, US still stands for liberty in all our minds ...

The economic position of the US is still #1 but declining.

Everybody believes this, esp. so outside the US. But is it a safe bet? Maybe not! Whereever I travel (all the places you mentioned) I only see copy cats, copying with US, European (and now Japanese) money. But you cannot copy easily the mentality of people.

[MRRiley]

Before we go bankrupt our government had better call in the gazillions of debts owed us by countires all over the world. It amazes me that even countries which hate us are more than willing to take our aid. The US has given more to the world's poor nations than all other countires combined and the day our economy fails will be a day they celebrate... until they realize there is no more Uncle Sugardaddy!

[falconeye]

The US has given more to the world's poor nations than all other countires combined and the day our economy fails will be a day they celebrate

You're right, the world is exaggerating. I think it is only that so many are so disappointed by the US breaking on their own ideals. The real opinions aren't that bad. Not yet...

[stewart_photo]

You are a Founding Member of DoHS? Wow! (snip)

Yes, though few seem to believe me. Therefore, below is a copy of a certificate validating that claim (watermark and other security components removed). Of course, the certificate came with a letter signed by Tom Ridge, first U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security, and a letter signed by Admiral T.H. Collins, Commandant of the United States Coast Guard - the agency I was associated with when integrated into the DoHS.

stewart

Attachment 9566

[TomInJax]

Stewart,

I am impressed! That's something to be proud of!

[stewart_photo]

Well, I obviously think so, Tom. And, since it is fairly unique, I do enjoy the occasional bragging rights.

stewart

[PaulAndAPentax]

Hi all

The main thing which concerns me and that no media organisations seem to have adequately addressed in any depth is:
"If all these highly respected prudent global banking institutions had so much accumulated financial expertise at their disposal, what the hell were they doing lending all this money to decidedly risky sub-prime mortgage companies in the first place ?"
In many countries, the concept of granting an individual a 100% or greater than 100% mortgage is utterly incomprehensible. If that individual subsequently defaults on the loan some while later and in the intervening period property prices take a tumble, all of a sudden the collateral becomes severely devalued and potentially worthless......take a look at large swathes of depressed middle America to see what I mean.
There was recently a fascinating & revealing interview on British television involving a well-respected financial pundit who saw this storm brewing quite a few years ago. His tale is quite extraordinary in many ways, because in his wisdom, he decided to approach many of the Boards of Directors of numerous City of London financial institutions and made presentations to them in order to express his increasing concerns.
The truly astonishing outcome was that most of these supposed experts didn't actually fully comprehend the perilous situation that their own organisations were actually involved in......shocking but true ! If the vastly over-paid idiots at the top of the pile aren't clued up to the risks that their investment arms are so vulnerable to, g*d help the rest of us. The accepted mantra seems to be, don't rock the boat by asking inconvenient questions, just keep the billions pouring in at ANY cost but expect national governments to pick up the pieces (at huge public expense) when things start to go awry. In other words, Privatise the profits but Nationalise the losses ! Hence the recent embarrassing fiascos at Northern Rock & Bears Stearns.....but don't worry folks, there's far worse to come further down the line, so let's just batten down the hatches and hope it all goes away......

Best regards
Richard

The simple answer to the question is another question. "What is it that destroys man every time?"

A: Greed. We're all guilty of it.

If we study the rise and fall of the Roman Empire we may find some answers regarding America. (Albeit I hate to say it) Rome was never conquered. It imploded. We are a 'do as I say, not as I do' nation. Fiscally responsible tell us how to manage ourselves personally, yet our government and highest paid bankers and CEO's think they can ignore the principals.

The scientific principal of 'for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction', is quite fitting in every aspect of life. For everything you try to do, something else is offset. This is why 'economic growth' simply cannot continue at the rate it did whilst everyone got greedy. Slower, more metered growth would last much longer but that means less immediate money in the important people's pockets. And those of us less important too.

[Confused]

Hi all

As predicted in my previous post:

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is buying battered broker Bear Stearns Cos. for $236 million in a Federal Reserve-backed bailout unprecedented in scope and execution.

Note the Federal Reserve-backed bailout.......now where have we seen this type of shenanigans happening before. Ah yes, The Bank of England using tax-payers money to 'temporarily' privatise Northern Rock in London. Believe me folks, this is only the
TIP of a NASTY UNSTOPPABLE ICEBERG and it's relentlessly heading towards you as we speak, so remember you read it here FIRST !

Best regards
Richard

[bymy141]

The simple answer to the question is another question. "What is it that destroys man every time?"

A: Greed.

I know that statement as:

The biggest causes of misery, war and destruction for mankind:

A: Greed.
B: Religion.

- Bert

PS: its becoming very tempting to visit the USA this summer. By then we can go there spending half the budget of last year while also picking up a K20D for 40% of the European price

[PaulAndAPentax]

I know that statement as:

The biggest causes of misery, war and destruction for mankind:

A: Greed.
B: Religion.

- Bert

PS: its becoming very tempting to visit the USA this summer. By then we can go there spending half the budget of last year while also picking up a K20D for 40% of the European price

The one thing that is a help to many American companies right now is their exposure overseas. The weakening dollar will probably increase exports and also tourism. This will increase tax dollars coming in to the US as well as income. These will all certainly help some with the solution to America's issues including a strengthening of the dollar over time. Most certainly if we can get some fiscally responsible people into Washington and elsewhere.

[creampuff]

Blame it on Alan Greenspan. Under his watch he allowed cheap and easy credit to create the housing bubble and the banking excesses. Add to it a US administration that has been burning money funding the war in Iraq and Afghanistan at the expense of domestic issues like health care. From a healthy surplus under the previous administration, the US now has a soaring deficit. How it is going to plug this hole is anyone's guess.

The American consumer is also at fault. Even before cheap and easy credit, the average American has the propensity to spend too much and save too little. Today many are mortgaged to their eyeballs and maxed out in credit card debt and other forms of debt with little or no savings to fall back whatsoever. Many average Americans are living a paycheck at a time with the prospect of further job losses looming.

The beneficiaries have been the huge corporations who for the most part have benefited from tax breaks under GWB. They have increased and shifted production and jobs to cheaper overseas countries in the spirit of true capitalism/globalisation to reap even higher profits which the upper echelon of management skims off in hefty executive remuneration that have little or no relation to the company's actual performance. It's profits repatriation first, domestic job retention or creation is probably the last thing on the agenda.

Yes the cheap US dollar makes the US a tourism heaven but it spells big trouble for the average Joe or Jane living in the US. A weaker US$ equates to much higher commodity prices, a bigger US deficit and with the credit crunch, an imminent recession. There is no hope in hell for the US to spend their way out of trouble this time round. Sadly it will have a knock-on effect on the rest of the world.

Practical advise - buy that K20D and those Limited lenses now because prices will sooner or later correct upwards as the value of the US$ weakens further.