Originally posted by Rupert My impression is that VW is the German version of "too big to fail". They were in the running for biggest car maker worldwide. The European Union is even relying on VW corporate bonds as part of their "quantitative easing" program. I think it's like GM or Chrysler or Citibank, no one is willing to let them collapse if it's avoidable. The reorganization may be messy.
No one knows what the cost is yet because they haven't decided on a fix. My thought is that VW will choose to spend a lot of money on the fix and offer to buy back some cars too. That will help their reputation and minimize lawsuits. Then they will use the cost of the fix and "too big to fail" as an argument to minimize the government fines. In the US, that should work. They might have trouble in other parts of the world.
Coincidentally or not, VW was going to invest heavily in electric cars, using Audi as a Tesla competitor. You might see VW dropping diesels in favor of electrics. The EU might crack down on testing and chase everyone out of diesels too.