[condor27596]

Here is something that just occurred to me. In NC you must pass emissions test and pay your taxes before you can renew your license plate.
What if the fix does not get them to where they are supposed to be? No plate? What if the fix gives you 15 mpg and you bought the car thinking you
would get 40 mpg?

[monochrome]

VW's future in the USA, at least, depends upon whether the regulatory bodies threaten to accuse them of being a criminal enterprise (like Arthur Andersen @ Enron) or VW figures out some way to argue this was the act of a small number of rogue employees (what would justify their actions?). Which leaves open a gigantic barn door for regulatory bureaucratic graft.

Given that Volkswagen epitomizes the German social-democrat State/Labor alliance, the penalties will be negotiated at the highest levels of the US and German governments.

[Rupert]

From test results I have read, the horsepower is only slightly decreased by the "fix" but the mpg takes a big hit. I assume that the great mpg is what enticed most buyers to begin with, so this renders their vehicle as a bad choice and makes its resale value drop like a rock.

I think we will see some bargain buyers snapping up these cars for the great mileage at a cheap price, with no intention of having the repair made. This is where the govt will get involved...no repair ...no plates. Since diesel exhaust is a known carcinogen, I don't want to be riding around behind these rolling smokestacks and I sure don't want to see young children exposed to these fumes.

Regards!

[Parallax]

What if the fix gives you 15 mpg and you bought the car thinking you
would get 40 mpg?

That's an extreme example, but the premise is why I think they should have to buy the cars back. The cars are now essentially worthless on the used market.
Buying back at "book value", even at retail book value, only makes the buyers whole. VW should have to refund the purchase price. Call it punitive damages to directly compensate the people who were defrauded.

[Just1MoreDave]

Here is something that just occurred to me. In NC you must pass emissions test and pay your taxes before you can renew your license plate.
What if the fix does not get them to where they are supposed to be? No plate? What if the fix gives you 15 mpg and you bought the car thinking you
would get 40 mpg?

In Colorado, the diesel emissions test does not have a standard for NOx emissions. CO has mobile test stations that can measure it on the road, one test that the cheater cars won't pass, and data from that was used to confirm the results that identified the cheat. But in the fixed test stations, those VWs would pass today. Probably cars in California would be in trouble. California has its own emissions regulations.

As I understand it, VW has two possible repair options. One is to change the software so it is permanently in test-passing mode. That would be cheap and quick for VW, but probably decrease fuel economy and power significantly. The other is to retrofit a urea catalyst system like everyone else uses, which should work without affecting economy or power. Owners would have to add the urea catalyst to keep it working. That's certainly going to cost VW a lot. Even if they have a system that fits and works, they have to make, distribute and install it in 11 million cars.

If I owned one of these cars, I'd want the retrofit solution, a warranty that it works well and a lifetime supply of urea catalyst. That should bring the cars into compliance without affecting performance so the resale value should be intact.

[mohb]

VW are going to get hammered whatever happens, what intrigues me is why anybody thought it worth the risk and then managed to get enough people to go along with it.

[Tom S.]

VW are going to get hammered whatever happens, what intrigues me is why anybody thought it worth the risk and then managed to get enough people to go along with it.

Umm, remember what happened there in the 1939?

[Ratmagiclady]

It's fraud. They wanted to make more profit by using a cheaper emission control system, they took that profit and sold people more performance and efficiency than they could deliver without utterly violating the eco-standards they claimed. (And hacked the testing system to do it, no less)

Pretty clear-cut that they ought to be in it for more than book value on the cars they just retroactively depreciated even more.

Plus damage done.

[reeftool]

My thoughts are this. VW is doomed! LOL

Actually, I think they will probably survive but I think the end result of all this will mean the end of the diesel engine in cars. The big truck engine manufacturers went through all this crap about 10 years ago. They got caught too. Big trucks are now pretty clean running with all the new pollution controls but they also are unreliable. The EGR systems constantly fail as do the newer turbochargers. Injectors get replaced more often and the prices will scare you. Out of 20 new Freightliners bought in the last year where I work, never have all of them been on the road at the same time. This is what's now in store for people who buy diesel cars. If you read past the VW story, a lot of other manufacturers are doing similar stuff but since they aren't selling diesel vehicles in the US, the press is largely ignoring it.

[Winder]

My guess is that the only winner will be the EPA who will collect hundreds of millions in fines for doing nothing. Can someone explain how some college students in West Va can find fraud on this scale, but the EPA missed it for years?

The VW customers will lose regardless of what happens. Their cars are now worth less and after the fix they will get worse MPG and have less power.
VW employees are losers. Sales will plummet and people will lose their jobs.
The thousands of people who work for support companies will suffer. Dealers, parts suppliers. People who own businesses serving the employees and operations of VW.
People who's retirement is tied to VW though 401K, IRA, stocks will take a hit.

What will happen to VW? That depends on what the media does. To use Enron as an example. Enron was a 1/3 the size of VW and its scandal was on a much smaller scale and effected far fewer people. Enron had less than 5% of its assets criminally mismanaged and the fraud involved less than 1% of the employees. Had the media not made Enron a target, the people who worked for Enron probably would not have had their pensions and retirement wiped out in bankruptcy. We will see what happens. If public opinion goes negative enough, VW is out of business and its competitors will buy its assets up for pennies on the dollar.

[normhead]

OK, so I sell you a K-3 but it's just my old K-5 with K-3 painted on it. I would consider that criminal. Why are there not fraud charges? Why isn't someone in jail. When fraud happens you are entitled to actual damages, and punitive damages. So my thought would be , cost of the car plus punitive damages. And if the company goes under, tough luck. IN my world people who commit fraud should not be allowed to continue working in the field in which they have enough expertise to commit fraud. Volkswagen should learn to make refrigerators and be forced out of the auto-industry. I'm not one of those who favours less punishment for corporations than an individual convicted of the same crime would get.

[condor27596]

I don't think the EPA actually looks for stuff. They mostly sit in nice offices and think stuff up. Compliance is left to state programs. One of the things thought up is OBD in lieu of tailpipe testing. I don't know the details but this is the second time VW has been caught cheating.

Texas is sueing for $25k a day per car for every day the car was on the road. That's probably the willful violation there ( same in NC). Times 50 states....

My guess is there will be a negotiated number that gives each state government some mad money. The federals are not known for negotiating but hitting with the maximum. Plus a class action lawsuit where the lawyers collect hundreds of millions and the people get a check for $100.

The people that will really be wiped out are the little man working for VW and those that own a VW now.

There was one model of a Korean car ( forget) that could not pass emissions new. I do not know the outcome of that.

Hyundai exaggerated their mpg. The owners submit a mileage log every three months and get a reimbursement check.

I also can't imagine people flocking to the VW dealerships now. I doubt they are even discounting them. suzuki still wanted msrp the month they pulled out of the USA.

[Kerrowdown]

Here VW are many brands... passenger cars under the Audi, SEAT, ŠKODA, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, Porsche, Porsche, motorcycles under the Ducati brand; and commercial vehicles under the MAN, Scania, Neoplan.

Emission issues will no doubt be present within some of these brands also.

[ChrisPlatt]

My thoughts are this. VW is doomed! LOL

Fortunately (?) they are "too big to fail".

My parents had a red 1969 Beetle, bought new. It was cute and reliable.

In 1979 I bought a brand-new VW Rabbit with my dad's life insurance money.
I loved driving it - when it ran.

But fuel and ignition problems had it in the shop every month or so.
Once the warranty was up it cost a small fortune to try to keep running.
Some "economy car" for a poor college student!

When I finally wised up and gave up on it I vowed I'd never own another VW again...

Chris

[normhead]

"Too big to fail " means the idiot shareholders that encourage this kind of behaviour will lose their money. The average shareholder these days is just as criminal as the corporation itself.