[Tas]

I sincerely hope things take a turn for the better in 2017. Take care buddy, and stay positive.

Thanks mate, I am okay and hope that 2017 does indeed herald the start of something new.

technology has been making people obsolete for centuries. whats different now?

This is very true, I mean we would no longer expect slaves to build the pyramids right? So let's go the next step. Jobs are done by various people and we could look at it in the level of complexity that each type of job requires. For example, would you expect a person qualified to empty rubbish bins to have the same level of qualification as a brain surgeon? Would a taxi driver need the same level of training and skills as an airline pilot responsible for an Airbus A380? I would suggest not, but if nobody was performing the bin emptying there's likely to be more social upheaval than if we ran out of brain surgeons or airline pilots. So what's different now?

Have you considered writing a list of jobs that can't be performed now, or in the future by some sort of intelligent machine? That would be a great list to add to this discussion. I mean, it's been suggested that we need humans to prune trees. Why? If a machine can learn to fly, pilot a submarine or perform surgery, isn't it achievable for an intelligent machine to be able to trim a bush? Or shear a sheep? Why wouldn't 3D printing and modular construction not become the basis of improving efficiency and cost benefits in basic construction and maintenance work. Could an intelligent machine learn how to take well composed and exposed photographs? Surely if the rule of thirds exists, there's an engineer to take up the challenge of proving this is possible? So if intelligent machines can not only take jobs but also supplant the need for humans in the artistic spheres, I again ask: why do we need humans at all?

I have a number of Popular Mechanics magazines (with "a number" read a huge stack) dating from the 1930's through 1950's. Every so often, that magazine ran an article about all the wonderful technological advancements being made and all the great things that were going to change our lives in the future. And here's the thing: Every one of those "predictions" were wrong. The thing is: We can only predict the future based upon our understanding of current technology. We cannot concieve of things not yet invented.What is interesting is that this new technology will change our lives, but often not in the way we intend or in the ways we can comprehend right now. One thing is for sure - We live in interesting times.

There's a lot of truth in your statement here Mark, and it reminded me of a similar circumstance. For many years as a youngster I would buy Mad and Cracked magazines. This was as a child in 1970's Tasmania so these magazines were somewhat exotic in such a quiet place like Tassie. Yet these magazines have stuck with me if for no other reason than the fact that an article in one of the mags raised the issue of western people becoming fat and lazy and needing scooters to get around which made them vulnerable to the 'communist hordes'. Thinking about the mobility scooters of today I see a parallel forecast by these comic writers and therefore an element of truth in a satirical article dating back to, in this case the 1950's or 1960's. The 'article' was wrong regarding the fears of being vulnerable to the quote 'lean yellow hordes' (the focus was on communist China), but if we look at contemporary experiences then there are examples of human redundancy like cooking or changing car tyres that automation will make a thing of the past if we don't consider the need to retain certain knowledge. To tie in with my response to Wibbly, the one area I can think of that intelligent automatons could not replace people is in the emotion expressed in singing. Technically Freddie Mercury could be matched by a machine, but to us humans it would likely fail. For now. Let me know if you think I'm wrong.

Hi Tas Sorry to hear things are not the best. Having a bit of a battle myself at the moment, trying to stop a 5000 head feedlot going in less than a kilometre from our house and fledgling tourism business. I get my day in court on Friday so hopefully that will be resolved. But what I wanted to say was give us a yell if I can help - even just a few days in the bush to take your mind off things. Peter

Peter, you're the salt of the earth, and an example of what no machine could really replicate. Good luck with your day in court, and thank you for your support. I have some work to do here first but some time in the bush sounds good mate. Thank you.

Tas

[house]

Society will need a complete reorganisation to avoid devastating effects. Those effects are actually already visible with larger and larger populations no longer needed as labour. I've seen convincing arguments (academic) that the current changes won't create new jobs to the same extent as in previous times.

Any sane human being should wan't to minimise, or completely avoid, wage labour. The HUGE problem is that your survival depends on it in our current society. Since industrialisation strange moral codes have developed that place wage labour as a measure of morality and personal worth. Everyone enjoys being productive but everyone hates wage labour so why not end it if it seems even remotely possible. The human life wasted at the coal face is quite horrifying as you stack up the years and generations. Ending that tragedy would be a win.

I have a creative job I enjoy (relatively speaking) but the trap of wage labour makes me less productive and much less useful than I could be. Things are structured so I can't fix the bus stop where I live (urban), I can't help build the neighbourhood nursery. My productive powers are severely constrained and I'm locken into my office, by the concept of jobs (not talking skill here).

Getting rid of wage labour would certainly see me work more!

[brightseal]

even automatic machines need human intervention

but for how long...........

[normhead]

The problem is, who owns the robots. With countries like the U.S. so opposed to rich folks having to share wealth, this is just a further concentration of wealth. In the U.S. where the rich systematically deprive the poor of health care, food, and decent housing, based on some right wing ideology that decides who deserves it and who doesn't , this will just lead to more concentration of wealth.

This will put more money into the walled enclaves patrolled by private police, and produce more desperate people willing to perform, illegal acts, because they have to just to stay alive.

And people aren't wearing enough hats.

[brightseal]

it's weird, I recently had a dream about Jeff Bezos.In this dream Bezos was living on some private island while his company was being run totally by robots. Funny thing though in this dream he was the only human left. weird

[reeftool]

The thought of autonomous vehicles is just plain scary. Reason number one is that I have been a fleet mechanic for 45 years and I have never seen a failure proof vehicle or part. The potential results of a failure are horrifying. We saw one bad crash this year when a Tesla on autopilot ran full speed into a semi. Despite the failure of the system to recognize the big rig against the "brightly lit sky", it could easily have been prevented by a driver who was paying even the least amount of attention. As a motorcyclist, bicyclist and occasional walker/jogger, it also scares me even more. Are these vehicle going to 100% free of blind spots? Are they going to be tamper proof? Hacker proof? So far, nothing exists that is.

[wildman]

The problem is, who owns the robots.

If I may be permitted to refine that a bit -
-The problem is who benefits the most from the wealth created by automation?

[Riggomatic]

As a machine design engineer I've replaced robots with faster more accurate robots.

Even if the vehicles can steer and navigate autonomously, there are so many other variables that will prevent being fully automated. I've not heard of tests done other than ideal conditions. How would it perform in rain, snow, fog, dust from dirt roads? All the ultrasonic systems, laser systems and vision systems I'm aware of still require constant human intervention. We are always adjusting lighting or re-teaching setpoints on "Automated" equipment.

To many failure modes that can't be accounted for at this time.

[lesmore49]

A wise old lady I once worked for about half a century ago, used to say that all things worked out for the best, in the long run. I have found her words to be true. I wouldn't worry about things such as, what's going to happen to mankind, if life as we know it, is going to exist, etc.

Not much we can do about it.

Sir Winston Churchill once said, that three quarters of the things we worry about, never come to fruition.

[wibbly]

not only that, but the USA is staring down the barrel of a massive labor shortage. and is already in the midst of a trade shortage.


nobody wants to do the work anymore.

[lightbox]

Elon Musk recently said that in his vision of the future we will need a universal basic income to keep everyone content.

[Blue]

Skynet becomes self-aware . . .

Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th.

[lightbox]

What about sex?
I was absolutely shocked when I did follow yesterday the link on BBC or ABC news page.
Apparently 2017 will be the years of sex dolls, technology have reached the stage that it can re create all necessity for enjoyable male sex, smells, warmth, softness, fully functional pleasure organs etc
You can even choose your favoured female, absolutely shocking, is that legal?
Scarlett Johansson Sex Robot!? - YouTube
I did watch and enjoy a good movie on the fight from Europe months ago, it was :
Ex Machina (2015) - IMDb
The future, interesting indeed but perchaps a little bit frightning......

Some folks will dodge this topic out of their own moral sensibilities, but it will be a very important social issue in my opinion for several reasons. Some related to prostitution, some to crime, some to health (mental and physical), and some to inter-personal relationships, marriage, fidelity, and even conception rates.

I don't think it's all bad; I also don't think we're ready to discuss it openly (would love to be wrong about that). The generation that is likely to start feeling the impact of this is also more open to this kind of discussion. We'll have to.

[Racer X 69]

I saw a small time filler in between 2 scheduled programs on TV yesterday where a company is very close to having a viable " driverless " truck system which can be retrofitted to existing vehicles.

Was it OTTO?

You Tube

You Tube

Self driving trucks have been in development for quite some time. Still, even with this latest development, fully autonomous trucks are a long ways off. In our lifetimes there will not be enough trust in the systems to completely eliminate the need to have a qualified driver present at all times when the vehicle is in operation.

[Unregistered User 8]

Was it OTTO?

Yes Racer it was. OTTO is developing a retrofit model, and the major trucking manufacturers are developing their own built in versions. I believe it may happen quicker than some think. That death of the driver of a self drive TESLA was on a normal road. No special permission was sought to drive it. Looking back at that one isolated incident, it could said that it was lucky only 1 person died.