Forgot Password
Pentax Camera Forums Home
 

Reply
Show Printable Version Search this Thread
06-29-2018, 07:51 PM   #31
PDL
Pentaxian




Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Woodinville, WA USA
Photos: Gallery
Posts: 1,521
However, look at the record of Tesla crashes, not as high as "regular cars" I grant you but having more electronic equivalent of eyes is not necessarily working out all that well. And talk to the family of the dead pedestrian about how good turned off electronic eyes are.

As for "most humans suck" at driving in white outs that is a over generalization. As I said, I was raised in the part of the US where white outs occurred often enough that knowing how to drive in them is quickly learned. If you look where I live now, you can understand when I say that the most common car type in the ditch are big expensive SUV's. Now it does not snow all that much out here and when it does, most people leave work at the first flake and drive as fast as they can, which is not all that fast due to ongoing issues with roads out here. The leave on first flake kiddies will get on a slope and polish ice, spin their tires, then abandon their cars in the middle of 405. As a brand new driver back in the mid 60's, I drove down the West side of Donner Pass in CA in a snowstorm and was honked at, headlight flashed at and cursed at for driving too slow. The number of middle fingers sent in my direction was pretty astounding. After being passed and about three miles down the highway, I drove by that same car after it took out 15 cat's eye reflectors dead center. All of the finger pointers were standing out in the wet snow while the driver was arm waving at the CHP officer. Yeah, I do know what it takes to drive in those kinds of conditions.

Edge conditions like those I mentioned are the hard part and the hard parts need to be solved before the system is released for common consumption. I do know a little about Airplane and medial device certifications. More work is done on edge conditions than the "normal" state.

06-29-2018, 09:58 PM - 2 Likes   #32
Pentaxian




Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Western Canada
Posts: 5,388
Original Poster
I sometimes wonder if one of the major factors in developing autonomous cars is merely a rather expensive way to deal with the significant increase in distracted drivers over the past couple of decades ? To take care of the issue of bad drivers...we develop and let the autonomous car do the driving and the 'driver' in the autonomous car can continue to search out that tune, shave, have his/her latte, read the morning kindle blog, check out appointments for the day, etc. and etc. while driving to work....or if unemployable to get that latte..to start the morning off right.

Most drivers are pretty good, but a small % are either lousy or easily distracted.

So rather than taking the always lousy and chronically distractable drivers off the roads...we come up with systems that turn everything inside out...because of a small minority of rotten drivers and apply it to all in society, including the majority who are good drivers.. No more personal driving for anyone, as some drivers are terrible. There, that will take care of the issue.

My observation in modern society is that we have rules, laws, regs for about 2 % of society. My experience is that 90 + % of people are good, honest, hard working individuals who do the right thing without the benefit of laws. This majority are kindly, moderate, responsible and are law abiding whether there are laws or not.

About 2 % are the troublesome ...some might say a criminal element and they are why we have rules and laws...to protect ourselves from them...them... being the 2 per-centers.

Then of course, the 3-5% who are not in either one of the two aforementioned groups. These 3-5 'ers are those who test which way the wind is blowing and will try to get away with whatever they can, if they figure they can get away with it.

BTW these are my rough figures..

So essentially what we do in society is bend over backwards to accommodate the 2 % troublesome, some might say criminal element and the 3-5% group who are always probing to find weaknesses in the social fabric that they can take advantage .

Case in point.

One of the mayors of my fair burg...came up with a solution to 'solve' the ever increasing problem of chronic non paying customers of the city public transport...was to significantly increase the ticket cost of public transport for the customers who always pay for their bus rides. Rather than crack down on the non payers...it was oh well, we know that a certain chunk of passengers will always pay...so let's solve the non payers by jacking up the cost for these reliable payers.

A mild example I know...but it illustrates my point.
06-30-2018, 03:48 AM - 1 Like   #33
Pentaxian
Liney's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 419
I've been looking at the issue of autonomous vehicles from the perspective of engineering in the safety. As someone who has been involved in safety engineering for few years now, the one thing I've learnt is that having software make safety critical decisions is fraught with danger.

In short, you can't write safe software. Software inherently is either going to work or it won't, there is no point where the level of safety degrades. Software can work 999 times out of a thousand, but for that one other occasion a different set of input parameters means the answer you get is incorrect. So while you can't write safe software all you can actually do is use very strict processes and reviews to create the software with as few bugs in it as possible. Ask anyone with a technical knowledge of modern airliners how hard it is to create an autopilot system, or rather more than one separate autopilot system which works independently of each other and constantly votes on what action to take.


The other issue I have with autonomous vehicles is that the software driving the vehicle can only assume that the vehicle systems will operate when required. This in turn assumes that the vehicle is correctly maintained and the brakes and engine react as the software thinks they will. In order to slow or stop a vehicle efficiently the brake system must be fully functional, and the type pressures must be correct and the same on both sides (lower tyre pressures on one side with make a vehicle slew to one side).

Autonomous vehicles mean more than just not driving, if you can't trust a human to drive safely I wouldn't trust them to maintain the vehicle correctly.
06-30-2018, 04:33 AM - 2 Likes   #34
Moderator
Site Supporter
Loyal Site Supporter
MarkJerling's Avatar

Join Date: May 2012
Location: Wairarapa, New Zealand
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 10,143
QuoteOriginally posted by Liney Quote
I've been looking at the issue of autonomous vehicles from the perspective of engineering in the safety. As someone who has been involved in safety engineering for few years now, the one thing I've learnt is that having software make safety critical decisions is fraught with danger.

In short, you can't write safe software. Software inherently is either going to work or it won't, there is no point where the level of safety degrades. Software can work 999 times out of a thousand, but for that one other occasion a different set of input parameters means the answer you get is incorrect. So while you can't write safe software all you can actually do is use very strict processes and reviews to create the software with as few bugs in it as possible. Ask anyone with a technical knowledge of modern airliners how hard it is to create an autopilot system, or rather more than one separate autopilot system which works independently of each other and constantly votes on what action to take.


The other issue I have with autonomous vehicles is that the software driving the vehicle can only assume that the vehicle systems will operate when required. This in turn assumes that the vehicle is correctly maintained and the brakes and engine react as the software thinks they will. In order to slow or stop a vehicle efficiently the brake system must be fully functional, and the type pressures must be correct and the same on both sides (lower tyre pressures on one side with make a vehicle slew to one side).

Autonomous vehicles mean more than just not driving, if you can't trust a human to drive safely I wouldn't trust them to maintain the vehicle correctly.
You raise some very interesting points.

One interesting thing I've learnt is that we humans are not particularly good at forecasting the future. I have some Popular Mechanics magazines from 70 years ago, where the writer wrote about technology that would be commonplace 50 years from then. And here's the thing: Not one of the things he predicted has occurred, even now. We simply don't do a good job with predicting what will happen and what will be possible.

Right now, several large companies are spending big bucks on the development of autonomous cars. I would not be surprised if they get it right. But, I would not be surprised if they get it wrong either!

There are, however, a few counterpoints I'd like to make to some of the points you raise: The current thinking seems to be that if the safe driving parameters can't be met by an autonomous car, then it will simply slow down safely and stop. If the designers of these systems get that right, then that seems to me a sensible idea.

Most new cars already have the data as to how well any one wheel / brake is performing when stopping. These cars also know when they have been serviced and most are able to provide information on whether a particular wheel is low on air. It would not be hard to get the car to compensate for different tyre pressures and brake or tyre wear at a particular wheel in terms of the data currently available in an emergency stop situation.

Several manufacturers are also working on "hive" intelligence gathering: This is where a vehicle is able to react to other vehicles nearby. A classic example is the typical freeway nose to tail type accident involving several cars. Imagine, if you will, that some cars are already able to communicate with others in the traffic stream ahead of them. As those cars are slowed or brought to an emergency stop, cars further back in the traffic can automatically slow. This sort of technology will, if fully implemented, dramatically reduce the risk of many common collision types.

Naturally, no driver, whether machine or human, will ever be able to predict the unpredictable - the child running out into traffic scenario. We can only hope that autonomous driving will reduce most accidents and deaths on our roads so dramatically that we don't forgo the technology because it can't prevent every death.

07-01-2018, 05:43 PM   #35
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by PDL Quote
However, when a autonomous car has a flat tire, gets stuck in the mud/snow just how is it going to get back on the road?
Why, autonomously, of course.

An autonomous AAA wrecker will show up, with a technician asleep in the cab. You knock on the door and wake him up, he changes your tire. Then a scanner scans the barcode on your autonomous vehicle and your account is debited the cost.

You both hop into your autonomous vehicles and get back to your nap, or dinner, or movie.

Same for when you get stuck in the mud or snow. Even when you don't want to get out and chain up, just summon your autonomous AAA guy, and make him do it.

Seriously, the whole thing sounds great, but I would have a hard time converting all my cars to it. In fact, I doubt I would want to. I prefer to own and maintain my vehicles, and the concept of only having a car when you need it is foreign to me. I know there are companies forming with fleets of little econoboxes that you get access to by subscribing or something. Zipcar I think is one, another Flexcar.

I saw an ad for one in the Seattle area some years back. It said, "It's like owning a car, except without all the sucky parts."

Made me laugh.

So having a fleet of autonomous econoboxes to summon at my beck and call just doesn't work. What if the last person to use one before you was a slob and left the thing a mess? And an empty tank?

And no matter how good these things get, there will still be accidents. They are designed and built largely by humans and we don't always get things right when do stuff. We are far from perfect.

And when the accidents happen, the human occupants won't be focused and aware of their travels. They likely will be too slow to react and try and prevent those accidents.

So when a manufacturer can build something that never has an accident, I might consider it replacing transportation as we know it today. But never before it can be considered 100% safe for everyone.

Oh, wait.

Would we have them in all the same types of vehicles we have now? Cars, pickups, utes, light and heavy trucks? All types of vehicles would need to be autonomous. Think of all the truckdrivers that could be put out of a job. There are 3.5 million people employed as truck drivers in the US, about a quarter million in Canada, and I suspect Europe has a large number of truck drivers too.

What will they do?

Last edited by Racer X 69; 07-01-2018 at 06:41 PM.
07-01-2018, 06:03 PM - 1 Like   #36
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by PDL Quote
Since you are not telling us where you are from and the contents of your argument, I assume that you do not know what white out means.

I have driven through snow storms where the wind is driving the snow horizontally about two feet above the road and the road itself is covered in white ice. I have also driven in show at night where the snowflakes appear to be flying at you in a way similar to the old Windows 3.0 stars screen saver but the number of white things flying at you is a order of magnitude or two or three higher. Having a computer system that is fast enough and smart enough to detect several million moving objects that appear to be coming straight at you would be a challenge, it was a challenge to drive through too. (There was also a foot and a half of Rocky Mountain powder on the road, no strips, no shoulder markings and only cats eye reflectors, also white, every 20-40 yards.) Visibility in these situations varies from 10 feet to 30 feet - 50 miles an hour is going to get you off the road and buried under the snow. Also remember that snow = water that absorbs GPS signals like you would not believe.

Anyway, show me a company that is testing under those conditions (Southern California, Texas, Nevada etc. rarely have those conditions) and we will talk. The Uber car that killed the pedestrian had some of it's basic systems turned off and you can see what happened. What is going to determine that an autonomous car will be able to deal with good conditions and bad conditions. Will they be regulated? Who will certify them as safe. (I worked for Boeing and Philips Healthcare and I know a little bit about certification across multiple jurisdictions) I do think it is possible that autonomous vehicles will come to pass, I just don't want to be among the dead people who are considered "proof of concept".
I know about driving in the winter.





This is like running on a gravel road. Graded, sanded, no salt. Slick but a little grip. I could run 60 to 70 no problem.





The entire state of Wyoming was shut down for a week in mid April 2013. When they finally opened it up it was slow because thousands of trucks got on the road at the same time. The surface was again, graded and sanded, no salt.

But it was real slick. Took all day to go from Rawlins to Cheyenne, and they actually shut it down for a few hours when I was just getting to Laramie. I stopped in to a place and found a nice restaraunt and had lunch. When I hit the road after it opened it up yet again it looked like this.





Spring Dust






Heading home for Christmas, 2009.

07-01-2018, 06:16 PM   #37
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by Just1MoreDave Quote
Weather forecasting isn't really good enough for this to go perfectly. Someone will have to consider what the car should do if it's on the road and encounters a sudden weather change.
Like when a tornado decides to drop in.

Or a hurricane blows through.

And those torrential rainstorms that cross the Midwest during the rainy season.

And straight line winds.
07-01-2018, 06:25 PM   #38
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
I'm enjoying reading this discussion. So far everything I have read has been compelling and informative. A lot of great perspectives.

QuoteOriginally posted by abruzzi Quote
Humans improvise in those situations, computers need to be programmed.
And a computer cannot be given every possible circumstance to consider, as humans cannot have experienced them all. We react and adapt very well to everything that we encounter. Been doing it a lot longer than computers have been around.

07-01-2018, 06:27 PM   #39
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
I like to make my own decisions. What about you ?
Indeed.

All lives, in all situations must always be considered.
07-01-2018, 06:35 PM - 1 Like   #40
Moderator
Site Supporter
Loyal Site Supporter
MarkJerling's Avatar

Join Date: May 2012
Location: Wairarapa, New Zealand
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 10,143
QuoteOriginally posted by Racer X 69 Quote

So having a fleet of autonomous econoboxes to summon at my beck and call just doesn't work. What if the last person to use one before you was a slob and left the thing a mess? And an empty tank?
The concept already exists - although, not autonomous, of course. Strange but true!
Yoogo Share Electronic Vehicles 5 Simple Steps ? yoogo share
07-01-2018, 06:35 PM   #41
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by LensBeginner Quote
I agree with that.
Perhaps with some sort of infrastructure, like wires embedded in the concrete under the surface markings.
I'm thinking that work on this is moving toward GPS location rather than Earth based controls. Although signal lights may become "smart" and be fitted to communicate with autonomous vehicles. And of course the vehicles themselves having on board detection devices to aid keeping them moving or not moving safely. And likely a wi-fi link to a central or regional traffic control center.

The communications systems will probably also be able to feed real time conditions in urban areas with cameras at intersections, etc. So when there is a utility crew blocking a lane the system will know and avoid the work zone.
07-01-2018, 06:59 PM   #42
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by veato Quote
Given the standard of driving I experienced this morning on the way to work the sooner we have autonomous vehicles the better
Yes, I also encounter these geniuses each day heading to work, and returning home. In the commutes is seems that many drivers forget the common courtesies and drive like they actually left in time to get to work, and don't need to set land speed records getting home.
07-01-2018, 07:01 PM   #43
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
I posted this video in another discussion of self driving vehicles a while back.


Funny how they are using it to deliver beer.
07-01-2018, 07:13 PM   #44
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by clackers Quote
Don't know about your county but there are plenty of building codes where I am that regulate standards for the construction of household stairs, as well as electrical wiring, minimum door sizes and so on .... your home won't get a residency certificate without them.
Every US jurisdiction has building codes that new construction and remodeling must comply with. But many of the older communities have older historic homes and businesses that were constructed, in some cases, about 300 years ago. Those structures when restored and maintained for historic preservation are usually grandfathered and allowed to be kept in the as built configuration. (I do see where some places are requiring fire sprinkler system upgrades).
07-01-2018, 07:29 PM   #45
Moderator
Man With A Camera
Loyal Site Supporter
Racer X 69's Avatar

Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: The Great Pacific Northwet
Photos: Gallery | Albums
Posts: 17,159
QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
I sometimes wonder if one of the major factors in developing autonomous cars is merely a rather expensive way to deal with the significant increase in distracted drivers over the past couple of decades ? To take care of the issue of bad drivers...we develop and let the autonomous car do the driving and the 'driver' in the autonomous car can continue to search out that tune, shave, have his/her latte, read the morning kindle blog, check out appointments for the day, etc. and etc. while driving to work....or if unemployable to get that latte..to start the morning off right.
Sounds like they should be riding the bus. They are, essentially, riding in a personal bus.
Reply

Bookmarks
  • Submit Thread to Facebook Facebook
  • Submit Thread to Twitter Twitter
  • Submit Thread to Digg Digg
Tags - Make this thread easier to find by adding keywords to it!
aircraft, airplane, bandwidth, cameras, car, cars, cell, city, control, crash, cruise, data, driver, events, gps, patterns, people, phone, phones, privacy, protocols, racer, research, six, software, stop, traffic, vehicle, vehicles, weeks
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Some incredibly FAST vehicles! Dewman General Talk 6 06-02-2018 10:58 AM
First driving experiences....what vehicles, who with, interesting stories.. lesmore49 General Talk 31 05-17-2018 10:17 AM
Project 52 Project 52-6-16-SUBJECT-VEHICLES noelcmn Weekly Photo Challenges 11 06-09-2014 11:02 AM
Vehicles in my street hooppjs Post Your Photos! 8 01-29-2008 06:33 PM
From moving vehicles (2 images) hamidlmt Post Your Photos! 3 12-03-2007 10:05 AM



All times are GMT -7. The time now is 03:33 AM. | See also: NikonForums.com, CanonForums.com part of our network of photo forums!
  • Red (Default)
  • Green
  • Gray
  • Dark
  • Dark Yellow
  • Dark Blue
  • Old Red
  • Old Green
  • Old Gray
  • Dial-Up Style
Hello! It's great to see you back on the forum! Have you considered joining the community?
register
Creating a FREE ACCOUNT takes under a minute, removes ads, and lets you post! [Dismiss]
Top