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07-03-2018, 07:31 AM - 2 Likes   #61
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
This event and some of the accidents involving Tesla's mis-named "Autopilot" highlight one of the challenges to developing these kinds of systems. Partial automation (SAE levels 2 and 3) may be worse than no automation at all. If the car's systems are good, the driver quickly becomes habituated to the car handling the driving. But if the car's systems are not good enough, the driver won't be paying any attention to the road when the system fails to recognize a dangerous situation.
I think that's what we're now realizing, that for many people partial automation is worse than no automation because they're very quckly lulled into complacency. The system is so good that they drop their guard, they don't pay attention, and then they're dead under the back of a parked cement mixer. Many people can handle the automation, but enough can't with current setups that many bad things will happen. The systems end up enabling the aggressive and dangerous mulitaskers.

We know that many, many people text and fiddle with things and eat and drink in cars with no automation whatsoever. That level of irresponsibility is magnified when the car can drive itself without intervention 80% of the time. Manufacturers are going to have to be more active in making sure the driver is continuously engaged. And if they're not the car slows, pulls off the road, and turns on the flashers.

07-03-2018, 10:47 AM - 3 Likes   #62
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@photoptimist this was also a topic on the Mayday - Aircrash Investigation series.
Apparently man is a good "performer", but a bad "monitor".
07-03-2018, 11:51 AM - 2 Likes   #63
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
Partial automation (SAE levels 2 and 3) may be worse than no automation at all. If the car's systems are good, the driver quickly becomes habituated to the car handling the driving. But if the car's systems are not good enough, the driver won't be paying any attention to the road when the system fails to recognize a dangerous situation.
+1

I use a radar based cruise control in my car and I use it a lot. It keeps safety distances better than I do and drives more economically.
But: I have experienced how important it is to really keep the attention at full level. Not having to touch any pedal in your car for half an hour can really start having an impact if you don't remind yourself that the thing needs constant supervision. And that is even with me handling the steering wheel all the time. I am sure if the system actually 100% took control of the steering wheel as well my reaction speed to critical situations would drop to levels of a drunk person. I bet you get bored, you get distracted, you start daydreaming. That is why I consider the Tesla half baked assistance systems really a threat.

With regards to the human factor discussion: It is not enough to replace ALL human drivers to remove human error. You'd need to remove all other human caused mistakes as well. I know a number of roadworks situations where the workers totally messed up road signs, road markings and warning beacons.
I am absolutely sure no current system could have made the right decisions there, because the right thing to do was to ignore some rules and follow others.
07-03-2018, 01:07 PM   #64
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QuoteOriginally posted by Racer X 69 Quote
I'm thinking that work on this is moving toward GPS location rather than Earth based controls. Although signal lights may become "smart" and be fitted to communicate with autonomous vehicles. And of course the vehicles themselves having on board detection devices to aid keeping them moving or not moving safely. And likely a wi-fi link to a central or regional traffic control center.

The communications systems will probably also be able to feed real time conditions in urban areas with cameras at intersections, etc. So when there is a utility crew blocking a lane the system will know and avoid the work zone.
In urban areas moving cars will link to parked cars as they pass them to share computational power think a rapid form of Apple Handoff. Parked cars will also store local conditions information such as road repair areas and accidents, reducing the need for constant system updates. Use of ‘neural network’ topology (the shared computing power of all the nearby processors) is the only way to make urban autonomous transit work.

Systems engineers and bureaucracies have not yet agreed on a communication protocol, The State want to tax the communication, which will slow tihngs down, and license the protocol because that permits graft and corruption. Your car maker want to lease you the communication technology like an OnStar subscription - and you won’t have an opt-out option. The system requires that everyone participate in one single “Plan” with no choices, just like Single-Payer Healthcare (ObamaCare or ACA). You will, one day, be compelled to have your non-connected vehicles shredded to prevent their disruptive use, and you will be compelled to ‘subscribe’ whether or not you own a vehicle.

Think by 2030 in densely urban areas like London and Manhattan or parts of Boston and LA, and 2035 on any Interstate highway, plus whatever states and cities mandate individually. It’s all revenue to them, so guess what?

Not only do you surrender your freedom, you pay for the loss of rights.


Last edited by monochrome; 07-03-2018 at 01:16 PM.
07-03-2018, 03:34 PM - 1 Like   #65
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
This kind of testing -- with the computer watching the road but not fully controlling the car -- is common during development. It collects a lot of data on how the sensors and control algorithms would likely react to varying real-world conditions without relying on them if those systems are not ready to take full control.

There was clearly a serious bit of human negligence behind this tragedy. Certainly the driver should have been paying more attention. But it's also possible that the manager(s) or engineer(s) overseeing the testing were negligent in not clearly instructing the driver about what the computer was controlling or ignoring.

This event and some of the accidents involving Tesla's mis-named "Autopilot" highlight one of the challenges to developing these kinds of systems. Partial automation (SAE levels 2 and 3) may be worse than no automation at all. If the car's systems are good, the driver quickly becomes habituated to the car handling the driving. But if the car's systems are not good enough, the driver won't be paying any attention to the road when the system fails to recognize a dangerous situation.
Tesla "Autopilot" is not (yet) supposed to be left to it's own devices.

"Enhanced Autopilot adds these new capabilities to the Tesla Autopilot driving experience. Your Tesla will match speed to traffic conditions, keep within a lane, automatically change lanes without requiring driver input, transition from one freeway to another, exit the freeway when your destination is near, self-park when near a parking spot and be summoned to and from your garage.

Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot software has begun rolling out and features will continue to be introduced as validation is completed, subject to regulatory approval. Every driver is responsible for remaining alert and active when using Autopilot, and must be prepared to take action at any time."


Every driver is responsible for remaining alert and active when using Autopilot, and must be prepared to take action at any time.

Tesla cars have quite a good array of sensors and cameras - but full self driving is probably still years away.
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07-03-2018, 05:04 PM - 1 Like   #66
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Manufacturers are going to have to be more active in making sure the driver is continuously engaged. And if they're not the car slows, pulls off the road, and turns on the flashers.
I wish they would do that now when some moron feels it is OK to check Facebook while driving and place everyone else at risk of injury or death.
07-03-2018, 05:50 PM - 2 Likes   #67
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
With regards to the human factor discussion: It is not enough to replace ALL human drivers to remove human error. You'd need to remove all other human caused mistakes as well. I know a number of roadworks situations where the workers totally messed up road signs, road markings and warning beacons.
I am absolutely sure no current system could have made the right decisions there, because the right thing to do was to ignore some rules and follow others.
Excellent point! Construction zones are a mess. At a conference talking about autonomous vehicles, one of the speakers showed a picture of an urban intersection on a dark, rainy night, with a red stop-light, and a police officer motioning traffic through against that red light. Dealing with contradictory data is tricky.

However, it's not as complex as it seems. There are a bunch of simple algorithmic rules such as "don't hit anything," "don't move into the path of another moving object," and "move forward when safe to do so" that can prevent almost all accidents in confusing situations. Those rules don't require GPS or complex communication protocols with smart roads.

Most the demands for autonomous vehicle "safety" put way too high a bar on what the computer must be able to do. After all, the government hands out driver's licenses to people who miss 20% of the questions on the test. I'm much more worried about the other idiots on the road than any autonomous vehicle.
07-03-2018, 06:00 PM   #68
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QuoteOriginally posted by photoptimist Quote
I'm much more worried about the other idiots on the road than any autonomous vehicle.
Very good point!

07-03-2018, 06:47 PM - 1 Like   #69
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QuoteOriginally posted by monochrome Quote
Therefore, human-driven cars will be mandated illegal by 2035 in order to allow the autonomous system to work. Turn it in to the salvage shredder. By government fiat. Eminent Domain taking will govern.
People own cars (cars defined as motor vehicles)
These same people vote to elect public officials.
Politicians want to keep their power by being elected.

What do you think would happen to any politician who backed the confiscation of non-autonomous vehicles?
07-03-2018, 07:21 PM   #70
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As an exercise just convert the Tesla sensor "distance" measurements to time, i.e. how many seconds ahead would an object be seen at say highway speeds? It ain't all that much.

Using the RADAR figures as 160m:
interstates in the US support a max speed in most places is 75mph => 120.69kph so 160m at 33.53m/s which means the object is hit in 4.77 seconds.
Using the Uber accident the car was going around 43mph => 69.16kph at 19.22m/s and the car covers that distance in 8.32 seconds.

Make sure you keep your hands on the wheel and look out the front of the car. I continue to wonder what one of these systems would do in a white-out where the GPS is weak, there is no or very poor cell (mobile for you non US types) and you are 20-30 miles from the nearest convenience. Just how long will the heater run on a Tesla?
07-03-2018, 08:24 PM   #71
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QuoteOriginally posted by PDL Quote
Using the RADAR figures as 160m:
interstates in the US support a max speed in most places is 75mph => 120.69kph so 160m at 33.53m/s which means the object is hit in 4.77 seconds.
Using the Uber accident the car was going around 43mph => 69.16kph at 19.22m/s and the car covers that distance in 8.32 seconds.
That's probably better than a human is seeing at that speed.

QuoteOriginally posted by PDL Quote
Just how long will the heater run on a Tesla?
The longest I know of was someone stuck in a snowstorm. They waited 5 hours and used 70km of range to keep the car at a toasty temperature, all, of course, without the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. (That's 14 miles range per hour lost due to heating the car) Of course, to keep the car at a merely survivable temperature would have used a lot less energy, so potentially (if there was two people in the car) 0.4 miles range per hour to 1.2 miles range per hour loss to keep the car at a survivable temperature. So, using the "half charge scenario" so, 150 mile range, you're looking at around 5 days minimum.
07-03-2018, 09:18 PM   #72
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QuoteOriginally posted by MarkJerling Quote
That's probably better than a human is seeing at that speed.



The longest I know of was someone stuck in a snowstorm. They waited 5 hours and used 70km of range to keep the car at a toasty temperature, all, of course, without the risk of carbon monoxide poisoning. (That's 14 miles range per hour lost due to heating the car) Of course, to keep the car at a merely survivable temperature would have used a lot less energy, so potentially (if there was two people in the car) 0.4 miles range per hour to 1.2 miles range per hour loss to keep the car at a survivable temperature. So, using the "half charge scenario" so, 150 mile range, you're looking at around 5 days minimum.
When using an internal combustion engine car...car cabin heat is derived from the heat produced by the running engine. As long as the gas/diesel engine is running and at operating temperature, the engine provides heat to the car's heater and therefore to the cabin.

An electric car...depends of the car's electric battery to provide heat to the car cabin. You don't have to run the electric motor to provide cabin heat, as the cars batteries provide that. If a car is stuck in the snow, then the heater will provide heat. What does affect the power and range of electric car's batteries and significantly is extreme cold. If the electric car is stuck in blizzard in -28 for many hours...the significant cold will have a effect on how long those batteries will work...before they are drained of power.

I travel a fair amount in the western Canadian prairies and many of the colder parts of the USA during winter. I realize that if I get stuck and the gas in my tank runs dry...then I could be in a desparate situation. So I never let my tank drop down below about 2/3rds of a tank. With an EV this is more problematic. Extreme cold saps electric power and running an EV and a providing cabin heat in these temps..can affect how much electric juice I will have.

The Canadian prairies and northern Canada have long periods of extreme cold, as do states such as North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, etc.

Electric only cars do have difficulty providing heat and motivation power in very cold weather. This article (hopefully it will link) discusses a long trip with an EV, during cold wintry weather and the issue of driving and heating the car at the same time.

http://https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=r...gKKB_5b-A0mMWh
07-03-2018, 09:26 PM   #73
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QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
When using an internal combustion engine car...car cabin heat is derived from the heat produced by the running engine. As long as the gas/diesel engine is running and at operating temperature, the engine provides heat to the car's heater and therefore to the cabin.

An electric car...depends of the car's electric battery to provide heat to the car cabin. You don't have to run the electric motor to provide cabin heat, as the cars batteries provide that. If a car is stuck in the snow, then the heater will provide heat. What does affect the power and range of electric car's batteries and significantly is extreme cold. If the electric car is stuck in blizzard in -28 for many hours...the significant cold will have a effect on how long those batteries will work...before they are drained of power.

I travel a fair amount in the western Canadian prairies and many of the colder parts of the USA during winter. I realize that if I get stuck and the gas in my tank runs dry...then I could be in a desparate situation. So I never let my tank drop down below about 2/3rds of a tank. With an EV this is more problematic. Extreme cold saps electric power and running an EV and a providing cabin heat in these temps..can affect how much electric juice I will have.

The Canadian prairies and northern Canada have long periods of extreme cold, as do states such as North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, etc.

Electric only cars do have difficulty providing heat and motivation power in very cold weather. This article (hopefully it will link) discusses a long trip with an EV, during cold wintry weather and the issue of driving and heating the car at the same time.

http://https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=r...gKKB_5b-A0mMWh
Luckily the coldest place I encounter from time to time is our freezer, which is a balmy -20 deg C.
07-04-2018, 01:37 AM   #74
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QuoteOriginally posted by lesmore49 Quote
A concern about autonomous vehicles is the decision making process is out of the hands of the driver...or the human who would be sitting in the driver's seat. Programming installed in the vehicle would decide what happens if a dangerous driving situation arises...say a bus with many people aboard, goes out of control and is collision course towards an autonomous vehicle with say only a 'driver' and a passenger . Lives are at stake and the autonomous vehicle would be programmed to make an 'ethical' decision on what to do in the situation.

http://https://www.uml.edu/News/stories/2017/SelfDrivingCars.aspx

I like to make my own decisions. What about you ?
Absolutely. And I enjoy driving. Autonomous cars are very popular with people who use public transport or who drive Camrys. If autonomous cars are mandated, then we'd better start getting used to streets full of horse manure.
07-04-2018, 02:31 AM   #75
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
+1

I use a radar based cruise control in my car and I use it a lot. It keeps safety distances better than I do and drives more economically.
But: I have experienced how important it is to really keep the attention at full level. Not having to touch any pedal in your car for half an hour can really start having an impact if you don't remind yourself that the thing needs constant supervision. And that is even with me handling the steering wheel all the time. I am sure if the system actually 100% took control of the steering wheel as well my reaction speed to critical situations would drop to levels of a drunk person. I bet you get bored, you get distracted, you start daydreaming. That is why I consider the Tesla half baked assistance systems really a threat.
I'm on my second car that is fitted with a cruise control, and I hate the concept. The fact that I can set the speed and take my foot off the accelerator just feels wrong
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