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07-06-2018, 04:28 AM   #196
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QuoteOriginally posted by LensBeginner Quote
To drive is fun, in abstract.
You know, those beautiful, empty country roads you see in the commercials, with leaves rustling after the car silently passes.
Or those winding mountain roads like that famous one in Romania.

Then you start your very real car, and spend the next hour jammed in city traffic, with mopeds that try to get run over by you by passing you then swerving in front of your hood and braking hard in order not to hit the car in front, or trying to figure out the intentions of people scrambling at the very last moment for a right turn from two lanes on your left.
And when you finally get to said country road, it is really deserted as in the commercial save for the old man with the decrepit Fiat Panda, who drives at 30km/h, but whom you never manage to overtake, because in the straights he suddenly accelerates ("hey, it's easier here!"), and always drives in the middle of the road anyway...

Oh and lest we forget... the geniuses with SUV and sedans who only drive in the fast lane on motorways, going 160 km/h and signaling you to GTFO of they way with their headlights...

Autonomous ASAP for me.
Autonomous driving is going to be the American version of public transportation with some extra perks. In Europe or Japan the train is often cheaper than owning a car, espeically when you figure in gas, maintenance, regular replacement, insurance. We don't have that option unless you live in a select city like New York or DC. Probably 50% of the US population has no real option besides owning their own car, otherwise basic things like going to the grocery store are practically unworkable.

I can see large numbers of Americans in 2030 commuting in autonomous cars that come get them, take them to work, run their errands, then go off doing something else all day instead of sitting unused in a lot with 1500 other idle cars. It has to be cheaper than the $5,000, $10,000 a year or whatever people spend on car payment+insurance+gas+maintenance. We're also an antisocial lot, or have trained ourselve to be in our personal cars for our 90 minutes of commute a day, so this will help solve the issue of interacting with people on public transport.

Instead of a huge tax bill up front to pay for trains we're spreading the cost of our future transport over millions of cars incrementally implementing autonomy.

07-06-2018, 04:29 AM   #197
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I think the question isn't whether having autonomous vehicles will prevent all accidents (clearly they won't), but whether it is possible they could reduce accidents. I think they probably could reduce accidents pretty significantly. A lot would depend on how much humans are allowed to over ride the vehicle control. Can a human go above the speed limit and if so, by how much? Can a human attempt a dangerous merge into another lane of traffic? My guess is that the best situation (once these systems are fully developed) is not to allow much human intervention in the vehicle operation. A two headed control system is much more likely to break down.
I believe that there is a more basic question at play here. The essential question is why was the vehicle(s) allowed on the public streets at all. Clearly, there was not a complete system that had been developed that was under test. There was part of a autonomous system, but it was being supplemented by the driver for some level of capability. You don't test a partial system out on the general public for the better part of two years while it's being developed. You take it off to a closed course.

The major auto manufacturers had already developed automated collision systems and are currently offering them on their production models. Uber was playing catch-up here in terms of integrating collision detection and braking systems into their overall design. I do understand Ube wanting to develop their own collision detection and braking system for their vehicle, however in doing so, they need to apply some basic common sense and general engineering principals in the process. In my view, they were not doing this.

I'm all for reducing regulation in the political / governmental environment - however that does not mean that you eliminate all regulation. In that the Arizona Governor went out of his way to bring Uber here and give them access to the public's streets for their testing needs some examination. What did Uber tell Arizona, what did the Arizona state government know (how much did they know - did they clearly understand that the overall vehicle system was not fully developed)?

Let me use drug testing as an analogy. The FDA does not let a drug company test a partially developed drug on the public. They need to disclose that the new drug has completed its design and development, been initially tested via various methods and approaches, indicate what and how they expect the drug to work. Then they are permitted to test the drug on humans.

There is an expectation of a reasonable level of responsibility needed here. Uber needs to be responsible for the systems that they have driving around in a public environment. You don't want an fully autonomous vehicle driving around completely unattended. The hybrid system approach, that they were using was not sufficient in my view. Having the driver, on their own recognize a dangerous situation, take command of the steering and apply the brakes - was the human monitoring a system, which usually does not work as well as a human operating a system - especially in a critical real time environment. Volvo's own system, when it recognizes a dangerous situation, alerts the driver. That would have provided in this case - possibly 6 seconds of warning. Effectively, probably a bit less.

I'm sorry but this particular situation has elements of stupidity at every turn. There will always be accidents. You can not eliminate them. But, you don't have to design a system that has the potential of goes looking for one. Hindsight is always 20/20 - would have, could have, should have.....

QuoteQuote:
A lot would depend on how much humans are allowed to over ride the vehicle control. Can a human go above the speed limit and if so, by how much? Can a human attempt a dangerous merge into another lane of traffic?
Airbus, years ago was doing some touch and go testing, and learned about human override the hard way. The plane came in a bit fast on the approach (it could have been part of the test - I don't remember) touched and then was exerting command authority to pull up and apply more thrust than what the computer though was necessary (going outside the nominal flight envelope). The result was that the plane mowed down the forest at the end of the runway. It was not a good day. User interaction / interface - It's a delicate balance that needs to be addressed when you are doing an automated system design. It's set of hard and difficult decisions - that has consequences across the entire system.

07-06-2018, 04:43 AM   #198
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Autonomous driving is going to be the American version of public transportation with some extra perks. In Europe or Japan the train is often cheaper than owning a car, espeically when you figure in gas, maintenance, regular replacement, insurance. We don't have that option unless you live in a select city like New York or DC. Probably 50% of the US population has no real option besides owning their own car, otherwise basic things like going to the grocery store are practically unworkable.

I can see large numbers of Americans in 2030 commuting in autonomous cars that come get them, take them to work, run their errands, then go off doing something else all day instead of sitting unused in a lot with 1500 other idle cars. It has to be cheaper than the $5,000, $10,000 a year or whatever people spend on car payment+insurance+gas+maintenance. We're also an antisocial lot, or have trained ourselve to be in our personal cars for our 90 minutes of commute a day, so this will help solve the issue of interacting with people on public transport.

Instead of a huge tax bill up front to pay for trains we're spreading the cost of our future transport over millions of cars incrementally implementing autonomy.
Public transportation is almost never viable for me.
I often have to go to places which are not served by public transportation - by that I mean nothing (train, bus etc.) gets in a 20km or more radius.
It happens that I get a job with a 2-3 hrs notice. No time to arrange for transportation other than my own car.
And finally, I often end my shift very late, 1-2hrs after the last train, and I still have 80 or so km to cover.
Those times I can go on foot, I do, even if it's a 2hrs round trip, but otherwise...
07-06-2018, 04:49 AM - 1 Like   #199
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QuoteOriginally posted by interested_observer Quote
Airbus, years ago was doing some touch and go testing, and learned about human override the hard way. The plane came in a bit fast on the approach (it could have been part of the test - I don't remember) touched and then was exerting command authority to pull up and apply more thrust than what the computer though was necessary (going outside the nominal flight envelope). The result was that the plane mowed down the forest at the end of the runway. It was not a good day. User interaction / interface - It's a delicate balance that needs to be addressed when you are doing an automated system design. It's set of hard and difficult decisions - that has consequences across the entire system.

If you're referring to AF296, that accident went down another way.
It was a low fly-by, not a touch-and-go, and the cause of the crash was either the lag in engine spool-up (i.e. pilot error) or the computer entering landing mode below 100ft AGL.
We have a final report, though it has been disputed by the captain of that flight, and there are some incoherences.

07-06-2018, 04:51 AM   #200
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QuoteOriginally posted by ThorSanchez Quote
Autonomous driving is going to be the American version of public transportation with some extra perks. In Europe or Japan the train is often cheaper than owning a car, espeically when you figure in gas, maintenance, regular replacement, insurance. We don't have that option unless you live in a select city like New York or DC. Probably 50% of the US population has no real option besides owning their own car, otherwise basic things like going to the grocery store are practically unworkable.

I can see large numbers of Americans in 2030 commuting in autonomous cars that come get them, take them to work, run their errands, then go off doing something else all day instead of sitting unused in a lot with 1500 other idle cars. It has to be cheaper than the $5,000, $10,000 a year or whatever people spend on car payment+insurance+gas+maintenance. We're also an antisocial lot, or have trained ourselve to be in our personal cars for our 90 minutes of commute a day, so this will help solve the issue of interacting with people on public transport.

Instead of a huge tax bill up front to pay for trains we're spreading the cost of our future transport over millions of cars incrementally implementing autonomy.
I doubt it. You underestimate how low the population density is in major portions of the United States. I have three neighbors that live on my km stretch of road. I work 20 miles away in a town of 2500 people. The odds that someone is going to invest in some type of commuter vehicle that will transport me from rural Gladys to the metropolis of Brookneal seems small. I don't drive by myself because I'm antisocial, but because my neighbors don't work at the same place I do.
07-06-2018, 04:55 AM   #201
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Oh and before I forget... me and my colleagues are always coordinating... if we have to go further than say 5-10 km, we almost always fill our car.
4-5 people on a GPL car is way cheaper than train taking into account gas cost only; I don't know if it's also cheaper taking into account maintenance & taxes, or even the cost of the vehicle, but since as I already explained I have little choice in that matter, those would be there anyway.
07-06-2018, 05:08 AM - 1 Like   #202
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I doubt it. You underestimate how low the population density is in major portions of the United States. I have three neighbors that live on my km stretch of road. I work 20 miles away in a town of 2500 people. The odds that someone is going to invest in some type of commuter vehicle that will transport me from rural Gladys to the metropolis of Brookneal seems small. I don't drive by myself because I'm antisocial, but because my neighbors don't work at the same place I do.
The economics will work itself out, but you are probably not the typical case for this. I'm in a somewhat similar situation, although I do have 5-6 neighbors within a kilometer.

But even where I live in suburban/rural southern Maryland there are vast developments with hundreds of houses. Right now their only option is for each house to own a car or three or four. With autonomous vehicles owned by some Uber-like company many of them could probably downsize to one general-purpose car and save many thousands of dollars a year. I think there is probably a business case there, and also for all but the most rural ~25% of the US population.

But even among the very rural places there may be a viable opportunity. I have an aunt and uncle who live in the Shennandoah Valley of Virginia. They're about 15 miles from the nearest grocery store, and maybe 30 miles to the nearest city of any decent size and the hospital. They're on Social Security, very limited income. House paid off years ago. They have three major expenses - food, medical, and car. My uncle has medical problems and can't really drive any more. They have a lower-spec Hyundai compact, and it is probably eating up 15-20% of their annual income. All you have to do is come up with a autonomous ride sharing service that equates to 10% of their annual income and they'd be all in.

07-06-2018, 12:11 PM   #203
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QuoteOriginally posted by dbs Quote
The Technology will be perfected but do you want to never drive again?
Autonomous vehicles mean just that..

Dave
I could live OK without driving, it would not be as much fun an now but depending on how the vehicles are distributed it could be OK.
In Seattle there is a ongoing war against cars. The city has decided that it wants to become a high density environment. Old houses are being bought out and lego-block apartments and condominiums are being built out left and right. These new buildings to no provide parking - at all. Parking on the street means you have to move your car every 18 hours or get it towed. Public Transportation is not meeting the requirements of the population and delays are measured in decades now. And this is a place where, if you had a car, you can drive within a hour or two, of THREE NATIONAL PARKS. If you do not have a car, then good luck getting anywhere other than work or a public park that is being occupied my hoards of the homeless. (Note to the moderations - the homeless issue out here a fact, not a political comment)

So, yes, I would like to see autonomous vehicles, IF. It is a big IF access to the vehicle is as easy as going out to my garage and getting into it. I do buy things that don't fit on the bus and it would be nice to be able to haul them home when I want to and not to some devices schedule.
07-06-2018, 12:28 PM - 3 Likes   #204
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QuoteOriginally posted by Racer X 69 Quote
Hey!

What about Racer?
Racer is at the top of the list !!

---------- Post added 07-06-18 at 02:32 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by Racer X 69 Quote
We are twin sons from different mothers.
Yes we are..and it's good to know that there are other vehicle enthusiasts out there .

---------- Post added 07-06-18 at 02:50 PM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by onlineflyer Quote
Make that triplets.

Anyone here ever own an Elva? Or even hear of an Elva? I did.
I did. Hear of an Elva. Never saw one, but did see another rare car made by another small English firm. The Berkely. I saw it around 1962 or so, it was parked at a shopping centre and the owner came by and we spoke about it for awhile. I was about 13 years old and quite interested in this tiny little sports job.

It was a fibreglas body as I recall and had a British motorcycle engine for power. A 2 stroke 320 something cc twin cylinder. Can't member the make but think it was either a Villiers twin or a Anzani...both engines were of English manufacture. They looked like JAWA 350 twin engines, or the Adler or Yamaha YDS 2 and YDS3 engines. I also had a YDS3. Good motorcycle and it really moved for a 250cc.

In the 1950's and '60's in my town there were quite a few English cars. Common ones like Vauxhall, British Ford (Zephyrs, Anglias, Thames vans. etc.), Standard Vanguard, Triumph...sportscars and sedans, Morris, Austin to name some, than rare Brits like the Lotus, Berkeley, etc.

I remember seeing a Lotus Seven...at the local drag strip of all places...when I was about 16. It had a mechanical Smiths Tach and I was fascinated at how the needle jerked around the tacho face. So much so that a few years later when I bought my '67 Camaro RS 327 V8...I sought out the Canadian distributor for Smiths instruments and bought a Smiths tach that on the outside looked like an old mechanical tach...but was electric and had it installed. Don't think many Camaros had a Smiths tachometer.

Also recall a Borgward Isabella ...which actually looked quite sharp. The JAWA-CZ motorcycle dealer in town also carried Borgward cars and Velorex motorcycle sidecars.

You don't see this variety of vehicles anymore and it is interesting to note that none of the above had an autonomous option.

Last edited by lesmore49; 07-06-2018 at 12:52 PM.
07-06-2018, 02:57 PM   #205
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The cramming of people into large and larger cities then yes autonomous vehicles will probably prevail.but only in the city.
The greater outdoors not yet..But if you live in the large cities where do you park your own vehicle,so you can go to the great outdoors?

Dave
07-06-2018, 03:33 PM - 2 Likes   #206
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QuoteOriginally posted by dbs Quote
The cramming of people into large and larger cities then yes autonomous vehicles will probably prevail.but only in the city.
The greater outdoors not yet..But if you live in the large cities where do you park your own vehicle,so you can go to the great outdoors?

Dave
I live right on the edge of a large city and I avoid driving downtown if I can avoid it. Living on the edge as it were and being retired I can scoot out of town quickly....in about 7-10 minutes.

I live on the northern great plains of North America, but I'm also living on the edge here. About 100 miles away to the east, is the Canadian Shield ...a vast area of lakes, rocks and trees....about 120-200 miles northwest I'm in the Boreal forest.

I'm in the west and my favorite part of the west goes about 1200 files further west...through pure prairie...farms...then eventually cattle ranches the farther west you go....then after that the foothills to the Rockies...and then the Rockies. It's hot in the summer, can be very cold and snowy in the winter...fall is beautiful and so is spring.

Hard to beat. Gee hope I haven't given away the secret of how good it is out here.

The highways are for the most part...during the weekdays.... not terribly busy. I do a lot of back road driving in obscure and little traveled areas...summer, winter, spring and fall...I have a pretty good , general idea of this large western region and usually just use my in car compass to guide me around different areas. Of course being a Pentaxian I carry my K-1 with 28-105 and K-5 with Sigma 150-500, in case I see some forgotten iron (old machine), wild life (animal, bird) or old building in gracious decay...to photograph.

I do have a back roads map book (paper) and have never really gotten lost, as long as I have a compass, either in car or hand held. I don't use a GPS direction finder....nor do I want to, as the 'old' technology and my brain so far has worked out real well.

So how is the autonomous system going to work for guys like me, who drive down old back roads, farm roads...not all of them are mapped. I drive down steep inclines...shifting down to first or second...slowly plan where I plant my wheels as I go through badly rutted...or snow drift plagued roads , etc.

I'm generally in an old 6 passenger Buick sedan or a newer large Chevy sedan, not a 4WD pickup. As long as I'm careful...as long as I stop and assess the best angle to go...I've been fine...so far. Discretion is the better part of valor is my guide.

However if a vehicle is autonomous and I have no control over it...also don't know if the hidden away, little road is not programmed into the autonomous computers...just how will all this work out for a guy..admittedly oddball...in driving habits going to be able where he (me) wants to go ?

Will the autonomous vehicle refuse to go where I've...but no other man has gone before ?

Will... ACCESS DENIED...flash on my autonomous vehicle's dashboard...will the car lock up...will the system send an online message somewhere asking for someone to come out and 'confine' me if need be, as I don't have authorization to go where I want ?

I dunno ? But right now, I really do enjoy driving out and through some of these almost untouched spots that are difficult to find and wonderful to appreciate.

I think Dr. Seuss said it best and I quote :

"Oh, the Places You'll Go!" "You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose."

Well...maybe not in the age of autonomous vehicles.

I know, speculation on my part...but are any of us able to predict with certainty what the future holds ? I think not.

Last edited by lesmore49; 07-06-2018 at 03:39 PM.
07-06-2018, 06:16 PM - 1 Like   #207
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Hi Les
Yes the freedom of everything is up for grabs with this new ( not always better ) world.
The futerists I think are just dull and lacking in individualism.
I don't need to worry I'll be long gone by then
A compass and a map OH MY (don't tell the youg un's they wouldn't understand ).
Long live of the cuff travel

Dave
07-06-2018, 09:17 PM   #208
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I live in a "rural" area but I use public transportation to get into Seattle. Even though there is a bus stop a block away, it does not meet my needs as it only runs in the morning and early afternoon, not on weekends. So I need a car, plus my wife has her groups she works with that require her to drive.

We drive out to the Peninsula each year for Thanksgiving and I for one see no way to take public transportation out to Olympic National Park. I come from the fifth largest city in Wyoming where there was a single taxi that showed up after I left town and no busses other than for the schools. The airport stopped having regular scheduled flights before I left town. And this was the town were the only state four year University is located.

My wife is from South Dakota and her home town did not have a grocery store other than the equivalent Am-Pm gas station. The real store was twelve miles away in another town. Taxi's - buses - public transportation? They do not exist in the sticks.

Autonomous vehicles are going to find it very difficult to exist in rural areas. Just try and take a farmer/ranchers truck away. That will lead to war.

Autonomous vehicles will not be managed by the Government. They will be managed by Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft and maybe by Tesla. I like the idea of autonomous vehicles, but heaven help us if it the technology company's control them.

I can see it now, "How many adds per mile do you want today? Just Opt-in and get no adds. 🦄 Just give us all your person information and your credit information before we pull out of your driveway"

Last edited by PDL; 07-06-2018 at 09:22 PM.
07-07-2018, 12:51 AM   #209
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QuoteOriginally posted by onlineflyer Quote
Make that triplets.

Anyone here ever own an Elva? Or even hear of an Elva? I did.
Never owned one, but I remember them. Seen them race too.
07-07-2018, 02:23 AM   #210
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So I posted this in another part of the forum recently.



It belongs to a longtime friend.

A 1967 Dart GTS 383.

Nothing autonomous about it..

Among others he also has a 1967 Dart GT convertible. Another friend has a 1968 Dart GT convertible.

I stopped by after work today and they were working on getting the 1968 ready for it's first start. I chipped in and helped. It was awesome when we got it fired up, tuned and adjusted, and ran it some for break in. It has a 318ci engine, 4 barrel carb, windage tray, roller cam, Doug's headers. Sounded very nice.

No way they are gonna take that away from people like me and my two friends.

*sigh*

I didn't have my camera with me, so no pictures.

Sorry, eh?
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