[MarkJerling]

The internal combustion engined motor car did not gain prominence during the early years of the 20th century because society ran out of horses. So, in the same way, electrical- and/or autonomous vehicles will become the prefered choice not because regular cars won't be around, but because electrical and autonomous vehicles will at some point, be cheaper and more convenient to own. Cars rarely cause accidents - people cause accidents. And so, autonomous vehicles will likely be safer than ordinary automobiles.

Electrical cars are not a new concept. But, until now, battery technology has not been advanced enough to enable mass market penetration. And long after cars become predominantly electric, will airplanes still use fuel.

[MarkJerling]

Forth, most consumers don't want to share a vehicle, yes, there are exceptions but not the number required to make autonomous vehicles a mass market success. Who wants a mess left in their vehicle from someone who had a pizza party in their vehicle. Don't think it will happen? Well, guess again.

Shared car schemes routinely have rules and these usually include no pets, no food or drink except for water and no smoking.

[Racer X 69]

Rush hours are called rush hours for a reason.

Why do they call it rush hour anyway?

The drive I take to work everyday during rush hour, I can do in half the time when it isn't rush hour.

Maybe we should call it slow hour or crawl hour or something.

[Racer X 69]

I wonder how will privately-owned autonomous vehicles deal with the parking issue?

They will drive around 30% of the time looking for a place to park.

[photoptimist]

Hi all
Photoptamist the peak time you still need all the vehicles at once regardless if they can be used by others during your working time.Maybe we need autonomous cars and not so highly structured working hours to then ease the "rush hour".

Dave

Yes, peak time determines the number of vehicles required in the total fleet. But it's never all of the people once because some people work different shifts. And even the people working the usual day-time office work vary in their schedule. Some people want to be at work by 7 AM, some at 8 AM, some at 9 AM, etc. And some people are flexible -- they'd willingly leave a bit early or a bit late if it meant a better or cheaper commute.

Pick any minute of the day and there will be tons of parked cars somewhere -- the cars of the early birds will already be at the office and the cars of late risers will still be sitting in the garage. The average commuting time in the US is a bit below 30 minutes but "rush hour" seems to be two hours or more in many cities. That suggests that even if everyone has a commute during rush hour, that at most only 25% of the cars are needed to handle the peak. Put another way, a single car could provide up to four 30 minute commutes in the two hour period or more if some people commute before or after the official rush hour peak period.

[dbs]

I've heard the same types of arguments by a segment of the population about how great electric vehicles are and how much they are going to change everything, for at least 30 years. Yes, three decades, beginning with the Clean Air Act of 1990 and California's zero emission mandate, requiring 2% of all light vehicles sold in CA to be zero emission vehicles. Well, where are we after 30 years? Still striving to achieve that magic 2% number.

The penetration rate of autonomous vehicles will be painfully slow. First there is the factor of economics and whether of not you believe it, that will be a major challenge. These news systems to control the vehicle will be costly, given the complexity of the various added systems and the required redundancy to make them as near fail safe as possible. The auto industry is based on economies of scale and the numbers just don't add up, similar to that of electric vehicles that sill need tax credits to gain a sliver of market share. Second, there are over two hundred million (yes, 200,000,000) light vehicles registered in the U.S. Mixing autonomous vehicles with non-autonomous vehicles is a formula for disaster and when accidents happen, who will be sued? Yes, the vehicle manufacturer because they have the deepest of pockets. Third, most individuals really don't understand what an autonomous vehicle is and what are it's potential liabilities. Forth, most consumers don't want to share a vehicle, yes, there are exceptions but not the number required to make autonomous vehicles a mass market success. Who wants a mess left in their vehicle from someone who had a pizza party in their vehicle. Don't think it will happen? Well, guess again.

Thirty years ago, there were numerous market research studies that projected the tremendous demand for electric vehicles. So why is its penetration sooooo low? Well, the people responding to the surveys really didn't understand the pros and cons of an ev, starting with the higher cost of purchase and the reduced utility of the vehicle. Autonomous vehicles will only be successful if consumer buy in full throttle but, guess again, there is no throttle.

Hi Onlineflyer
Electric cars will be everywhere once the oil runs out
Who are making most of the electric cars and who are making oil realiant cars ?
That is why it has been slow for electic cars to be implemented.
Economics as you say well really profits

Dave

[Racer X 69]

And some people are flexible -- they'd willingly leave a bit early or a bit late if it meant a better or cheaper commute.

Provided the employer they work for will support flexible work schedules.

I work for a multinational employer that employs around a hundred thousand or so people worldwide. The site that I work at has around 40,000 employees, working 3 shifts, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Over the years they have had all manner of schedules, having a few hundred people either starting their shift or getting off work every 5 or 10 minutes, in various combinations of different work groups.

Ultimately they always return to the set schedules where most day shift workers start at 5 am or 5:30 am, second shift begins around 2:30 pm or 3 pm, third shift starts around 11:30 pm. Still some staggering but not much. Since the majority of the workers are on day shift, Monday through Friday, the massive influx of people arriving each morning, and leaving each afternoon clogs the arterials and freeways around the factory.

Management is always trying to optimize production by coordinating crew schedules. Each part of the airplane must be completed on time, and move to the next stage of the build.

So then as production rates change, day shift people get moved to other shifts, and carpools change or end.

The company encourages carpooling. There are special parking spaces designated for carpool vehicles only, close to the factory rather than in the general parking areas. But because of the ever shifting scheduling, and the daily need for people to work overtime to meet production schedules, carpools often fall apart because not everyone in a carpool will be required to stay late.

So then we get back to 40,000 people all driving a car all alone.

And all competing for fewer than 40,000 parking spaces.

[onlineflyer]

Shared car schemes routinely have rules and these usually include no pets, no food or drink except for water and no smoking.

That rules out 99.9% of individuals in the U.S.

[Racer X 69]

Shared car schemes routinely have rules and these usually include no pets, no food or drink except for water and no smoking.

Not everyone follows rules.

I could give examples, but it might look a bit like War And Peace by the time I was done.

[MarkJerling]

Not everyone follows rules.

I could give examples, but it might look a bit like War And Peace by the time I was done.

True, but people who don't follow rules in groups that they are part of often find themselves kicked out of said group.

[dbs]

Hi all
Autonomous vehicles are one thing but are we ready for utopia?
Work as we know it is to rigid .

Dave

[photoptimist]

Provided the employer they work for will support flexible work schedules.

I work for a multinational employer that employs around a hundred thousand or so people worldwide. The site that I work at has around 40,000 employees, working 3 shifts, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Over the years they have had all manner of schedules, having a few hundred people either starting their shift or getting off work every 5 or 10 minutes, in various combinations of different work groups.

Ultimately they always return to the set schedules where most day shift workers start at 5 am or 5:30 am, second shift begins around 2:30 pm or 3 pm, third shift starts around 11:30 pm. Still some staggering but not much. Since the majority of the workers are on day shift, Monday through Friday, the massive influx of people arriving each morning, and leaving each afternoon clogs the arterials and freeways around the factory.

Management is always trying to optimize production by coordinating crew schedules. Each part of the airplane must be completed on time, and move to the next stage of the build.

So then as production rates change, day shift people get moved to other shifts, and carpools change or end.

The company encourages carpooling. There are special parking spaces designated for carpool vehicles only, close to the factory rather than in the general parking areas. But because of the ever shifting scheduling, and the daily need for people to work overtime to meet production schedules, carpools often fall apart because not everyone in a carpool will be required to stay late.

So then we get back to 40,000 people all driving a car all alone.

And all competing for fewer than 40,000 parking spaces.

So you have 40,000 people with 40,000 cars but never all 40,000 arriving at the same time. Some people are leaving as others are arriving.

In fact, all the people getting off the night shift can probably ride in all the cars that just delivered the day shift. And when those cars drop off the night shift folk, then can pick up the 20,000 workers for the next factory down the road that has it's shifts at a different time or maybe take 20,000 office workers who don't start till 8AM. Then the cars can pick up several thousand fast food workers who get to work at 10AM for the lunch rush, then ferry the factory workers to and from the food places, etc. A single car might drive 24 hours a day taking workers from different shifts and different factories to and from work, lunch, etc.

There's still more than 60,000 people riding alone in each car but maybe only 20,000 cars in the total fleet. And the icing on the cake is that no one has to compete for parking spots any more. Everyone now gets dropped off and picked-up right at the door. There's no more driving around the parking lot looking for a space or walking across the parking lot in the ran and cold.

[dbs]

Yes, peak time determines the number of vehicles required in the total fleet. But it's never all of the people once because some people work different shifts. And even the people working the usual day-time office work vary in their schedule. Some people want to be at work by 7 AM, some at 8 AM, some at 9 AM, etc. And some people are flexible -- they'd willingly leave a bit early or a bit late if it meant a better or cheaper commute.

Pick any minute of the day and there will be tons of parked cars somewhere -- the cars of the early birds will already be at the office and the cars of late risers will still be sitting in the garage. The average commuting time in the US is a bit below 30 minutes but "rush hour" seems to be two hours or more in many cities. That suggests that even if everyone has a commute during rush hour, that at most only 25% of the cars are needed to handle the peak. Put another way, a single car could provide up to four 30 minute commutes in the two hour period or more if some people commute before or after the official rush hour peak period.

Hi Photoptamist
The only way which carpooling or the autonomous car car really work is if all employees live at only a few places.
You change jobs you change your residence, seems harsh but thats the reality as I see it.
I hopr it doesn't come to this .

Dave

[onlineflyer]

Just a few facts:

Consumers dictate what products a company produces
A company cannot survive if it doesn't earn a profit
If a company is forced to close due to lack of profitability, consumers are put out of work

It's a vicious cycle

[photoptimist]

Hi Photoptamist
The only way which carpooling or the autonomous car car really work is if all employees live at only a few places.
You change jobs you change your residence, seems harsh but thats the reality as I see it.
I hopr it doesn't come to this .

Dave

That's only a constraint if the exact same car must pickup the exact same people every day. Uber, Lyft, and every cab company does just fine with people living all over the place and changing jobs and residences. Uber even offers a car pool option that might pick up other people along the way. Each time you use it, it will be different people going different places but because Uber knows the pick-up and destination location of every rider, it can match riders going in the same general direction. Uber's carpooling it totally voluntary but it is cheaper.

As for your hopes it does not come to this, I doubt it will ever be mandatory. But it will be sought by those who don't want the expense and hassle of buying car, maintaining a car, paying insurance on a car, etc. And it will be sought by people who would rather watch a movie or catch up on email during the commute. And it will likely be much more affordable that owning a car and paying for parking in dense cities.