[surfar]

Well,bad news....This morning it was thirty homes lost and 3 dead.

Latest is double the homes gone,7 dead with 2 unaccounted for.

Tragic news,for those close to everyone affected.Sadly,it's only one month of summer gone .It's highly likely the pattern will continue if this severe drought doesn't break.

[Digitalis]

Sad news Surfar...2020 isn't getting off to a good start here either.

[Liney]

There are some seed pods that will not release their seeds without exposure to smoke/heat sometimes both are needed. Also certain seeds will fail to germinate unless exposed to similar conditions.

So even nature expects fires! I'm not Aussie-born, I came here just over a decade ago and the first time we got a text to evacuate was a bit of a shock! We lived on the edge of a decent sized town North of Adelaide and thought ourselves safe, until we realised that there were fields and pastures very close indeed and chatting to a neighbour taught us that burning embers travel a log way ahead of the fire.

I heard someone complaining on another forum about how the government should do something and people shouldn't have to put up with this, which was a daft thing to say even if they did live in another country. Talking to colleagues at work who have grown up here, they were taught at an early age that they need to do certain things and even if they did all that preparation there was still a chance it would al be in vain.

So the media will say its the governments fault, and there may be some truth in that but the root cause will probably come down to a combination of factors that no-one considered would ever happen at the same time. Google "Swiss Cheese effect", as a safety practitioner we put barriers in place to prevent incidents occurring but each of those barriers have holes in them unfortunately. If all the holes line up the incident will occur, some holes are bigger than others, and sometimes a barrier is removed because people just don't consider all the impacts of something. It may be that back burning and grazing to reduce ground level fuel was one of those barriers.

Anyway, be safe out there.

[PJ1]

If all the holes line up the incident will occur

Exactly. Unfortunately we only have records for a bit over 100 years in Australia and probably not much more elsewhere. The range of conditions we have experienced is not necessarily a good indicator of what could happen. We can only make sure we learn from experience.

[Digitalis]

Google "Swiss Cheese effect", as a safety practitioner we put barriers in place to prevent incidents occurring but each of those barriers have holes in them unfortunately. If all the holes line up the incident will occur, some holes are bigger than others, and sometimes a barrier is removed because people just don't consider all the impacts of something.

....some holes are bigger than others? eh? don't you mean some heads are emptier than others? Some people need to learn to clean up around their land and take care of potential fuel loads, if they cannot remove the risk then practical mitigation strategies, and common sense should be employed. People should be better educated about eliminating fire dangers, but many simply aren't. There are people in my area who are shockingly oblivious to the dangers in living so close to scrub land.


There are also local councils that try to protect native scrubland and enforce penalties if anyone clears too much native vegetation from their own land - this in particular is dangerous. Native trees such as melaleucas are just loaded with natural oil, they all but explode during a bushfire. Melaleuca wood makes great firewood on cold nights, the logs feature a flaky dry papery bark that lights easily and the wood itself burns with an intense heat....so you can imagine what happens when a few stray embers come into contact with such a tree on a hot windy day.

[Liney]

....some holes are bigger than others? eh? don't you mean some heads are emptier than others? .

We tend to rely on humans as little as possible, because they are fallible and tend to make big mistakes. The safest system is one with no human in the loop.

Barriers follow the hierarchy of controls from highest to lowest; eliminate, substitute, isolate, engineering, administrative, personal protective equipment. Tending to the fuel load could be classed as isolation, in removing flammable substances you are isolating yourself from the hazard of fire, but passing laws or regulations to make people do it is administrative which is lower down the effectiveness scale.

[James also]

As a patron of Bird in the hand and other various wineries in the Adelaide Hills I was devastated by the loss. To help the situation I have decided to purchase the odd bottle to help see the wineries of the Hills through a hard time. My daughter lives in Mt Baker so I am keeping an eye on the area.

Central Victoria is so dry, I think it is more good fortune than management that we haven't seen any major fires yet.

Thoughts are with all those that are affected at the moment.

[luftfluss]

For those Americans (like myself) who like to check in on our Aussie brethren in this thread, just to give an idea of the scope of the bushfires...

2019–20 Australian bushfire season... having already burned over 5,900,000 hectares of land*
2019 Calilfornia wildfires... totaling an estimated of 102,472 hectares of burned land*

The size and scope of the Australia bushfires is honestly hard to process


* source: Wikipedia

[Liney]

The size and scope of the Australia bushfires is honestly hard to process


* source: Wikipedia

It's a big country Luftluss, and so much of it is uninhabited or sparcely inhabited. While I won't say the empty bits are just left to burn, the bits with people in get the priority for resources

[dbs]

More and more people are living in the bush with the urban sprawl of the cities and of those who can no longer afford to live in a big city ( myself included ).
Incumes and home affordabilty has streched to breaking point for many, house prices in the big cities are in some cases 20 times annual income.
The haves and have nots is heading back to 1800's numbers.
A lot of towns are 20 to 30 kms apart with native bushland inbetween as well as cleared farming land but the bushfire doesn't care and rips through the lot unfortunately.


Dave

[surfar]

Online news reports 382 homes were destroyed on NYE, theres sure to be more because there are places that they just cant get to.

Deathtoll,hasnt risen thank goodness.

Canberra is the city with the worst air quality on earth, topping india and pakistan and 14 times above "safe"!

[dbs]

Hi Surfar

All the smoke and fires are heading to Canberra....is there something in this....
I hope there are no more deaths before they are put out.

Dave

[surfar]

Edit on the 382 homes,they were S of Sydney....meanwhile 86 homes lost in the Adelaide Hills fires apparently,not sure how many in Gippsland?

Hazard reduction burning and opening up NatParks and Stateforrest to grazing again will reduce the risk.

These fires are a MASSIVE wake-up call, unfortunately.

[Mike L]

Hi Surfar

All the smoke and fires are heading to Canberra....is there something in this....
I hope there are no more deaths before they are put out.

Dave

I've honestly never seen anything like the smoke in Canberra over the past few weeks (it has nothing to do with the legalized marijuana). It has an apocalyptical feel here lately, worse than in 2003 when the bushfires burnt into the city.

Fortunately most of the fires are well to the east of Canberra and burning away from us. Though the fires near Tumut and Adaminaby could become a problem if the wrong weather conditions persist.

[surfar]

Those photos and video footage I've seen look bad,its daunting that things can get worse before the rain(?) or cooler weather comes.