[Serkevan]

I guess I'm not sure about mortality rates. Currently the US stands at 3 percent. Italy and Spain ran 10 percent. Germany stands around 2 percent mortality. China looks wonderful in this respect at 1.5 percent, but I do think they undersold their number of deaths a bit.

Anyway, I think we both agree about the deficiencies of the statistical model. I'm just not sure how you fix it since you will never capture all of the data. The whole point of computer models to extrapolate based on data we do have. Obviously more and better data should help, but I'm still feeling pretty distrustful of this model. Regardless of the reason -- poor algorithm, poor data, poor judge of human's behavior -- it feels like it has a long ways to go.

Mortality rates are very hit or miss; in Spain and Italy testing is primarily done in hospitalized patients at this point, which will inflate the apparent mortality, while Germany has reportedly tested a lot of people in the most afflicted people (Germany has 44% higher tests/population ratio than Spain, and slightly lower than Italy). The positive rate from Worldometer data is Germany 11%, Italy 18%, Spain 39% (!). Apparently there were people saying that Germany reports only deaths that happen directly from ARDS, while Italy counts all deaths with positives as Covid-19 deaths, but I haven't found any proper sources in this so I wouldn't put any stock in such rumours (which does wonders for my peace of mind since living in Germany I have a vested interest in their low mortality...).


Spain and France also took longer to report deaths outside hospitals (mostly in nursing homes for the elderly, which are tragedies waiting to happen ), and when France did they suddenly had 900 cases extra on top of "only" 4000 deaths... that's almost 20% of all reported deaths happening in nursing homes.


We won't know the proper mortality until the dust settles and we compare gross mortality rates year over year, I'm afraid. We cannot discount the effect of Covid-19 on other causes of death (by a decrease in quality of care, as hospitals can be overwhelmed and healthcare personnel working in conditions that I wouldn't wish on anyone).

---------- Post added 04-07-20 at 06:33 AM ----------

When we reduce lives to statistics its easy to miss details. "Infection rates" and "mortality rates" , "flattening the curve", are all being discussed ad infinitum everywhere.

You also hear numbers of how many ventolators are needed.... I was wondering this morning just how many people survive once they are on ventolators and those that do.. what is their long term health outlook.
Its grim.

Sadly, the ventolator issue has only been focused on the need for them in increasing numbers. Survival rates of those on them is not well examined.Its looking like 50% of those that are put on ventolators will die and those that live will have a multitude of long term health issues..So when you hear everyone arguing about ventolators give it a moment to set in what those numbers mean currently and in the future..

Mortality rate of COVID-19 patients on ventilators | Physician's Weekly

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-survivors-recovery/

I think whats needed is more public discourse on the use of ventolators.. people seem to think increasing the availibility of ventolators is an answer.Its not.Its a patch.. a last ditch attempt at saving a life that often fails or leaves survivors debilitated. Perhaps if there was more focus on this it would scare people into making short term changes in their life styles to avoid
either winding up on one or having a loved one wind up on one.
AL

Some Spanish hospitals were reporting a better chance at recovery if the patients on ventilators were in the facing-down position, but it's a physically demanding technique that requires 5 people to do correctly without risking damage to the patient, therefore it can only be performed if you have enough anesthesiologists to intubate and enough free nurses or doctors trained in the procedure, which is not always the case.


As you probably know, I've kept saying that this thing is serious not only because of the death count, but the quality of life (or lack thereof... ) that awaits those who make it through. Chronic pulmonary insufficiency because of alveolar tissue scarring is not a joke.

[Parallax]

Mortality rates are very hit or miss; in Spain and Italy testing is primarily done in hospitalized patients at this point, which will inflate the apparent mortality,

Actually, it's just the opposite.
There was a news report this morning about how only patients who die in hospitals and tested positive are being reported as covid-19 deaths. The people who died at home, nursing homes, etc., and aren't tested aren't included in the statistics. One nursing home had 33 residents die but weren't reported as covid-19 deaths. It appears there are substantially more or dying than are reported, thus understating the mortality rate.

[photoptimist]

A theory isn't a factual statement and can therefore be neither true nor false. It is a way of organizing what we know about facts. A theory is useful or not, provides guidance for future analysis or not. Example: just yesterday, I saw a show on PBS discussing the difference between the heliocentric and geocentric theories of planetary motion. Neither is either true nor false, but merely a way of seeing things. Which one is preferable has more to do with the complexity of the model required to explain it than anything else. And the big fallacy in each is the assumption that the Universe has a "central point" about which everything revolves. In fact, everything's rotating about everything else. Relative motion is a more accurate assumption. But that fact doesn't disprove either of the earlier models.

The notion that a theory, to be useful, must be one not disproved by known fact has nothing to do with whether the theory can be either true or false. The attempt to argue that the contrapositive negates the statement is a logical fallacy.

A scientific theory is more than just a way of looking at the world. It also needs provide accurate (not falsified) predictions.

In that regard, the geocentric theory is false. Although it is true that two observers in relative motion with respect to each other cannot decide who is stationary and who is moving (either can declare themselves stationary if they choose), that is only true for "linear" motion (inertial frames of reference). In contrast, if two observers are rotating about each other, it's easy to measure who is the center and who is not.

It might seem (to the crude vestibular system of the human body), that the body and Earth are stationary and that the sun is rotating around us, but more accurate measurements (such as those found in the SR systems of our cameras) prove that geocentrism is false.

[Serkevan]

Actually, it's just the opposite.
There was a news report this morning about how only patients who die in hospitals and tested positive are being reported as covid-19 deaths. The people who died at home, nursing homes, etc., and aren't tested aren't included in the statistics. One nursing home had 33 residents die but weren't reported as covid-19 deaths. It appears there are substantially more or dying than are reported, thus understating the mortality rate.

In the case of Spain, that happened in some of the regions (Namely Catalonia; reporting is not centralized and there was seriously dysfunctional communication* for a while), and AFAIK it has already been corrected.
*For lack of a better term.

EDIT: Still, the Spanish case is interesting as they have more than three times the positive-test-rate of Germany; one would think that the logical conclusion is that Germany has done more preventive testing while Spain has focused their testing on more "probable" positives. I fully expect Spain to have close to, if not higher than, a million actual infections.

---

Last edited by Serkevan; 04-07-2020 at 06:55 AM.

[aslyfox]

. . . risk factors.

here is an example of " risk factor "

A ‘Liberty’ Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders
Even some public officials have challenged social-distancing requirements, calling them assaults on the Constitution. One group wants to gather up to 1,000 people for Easter.

A ?Liberty? Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders - The New York Times

reaction to perceived conspiracies can deadly

[Serkevan]

In that regard, the geocentric theory is false.

Clearly you're just opinionated

I will stop on this topic... I'm afraid that my blood has soured to the point of being comparable to that of Ridley Scott's xenomorphs just by reading certain posts, and while that might give me a nice defense against infection it's really not worth the trouble

[Parallax]

Even some public officials have challenged social-distancing requirements, calling them assaults on the Constitution.

reaction to perceived conspiracies can deadly

So can lack of reaction.

[reeftool]

It should be obvious by now that thousands of covid-19 cases are unreported, being passed off as a cold or flu. Our area got 100 new test kits. Yep, just 100 as everything in NY stays in NYC. Nobody in upstate NY is being tested unless you are so sick you need the hospital. I have read a couple of stories in the past week that suggest that all deaths are being blamed on covid-19 right now along with some reports that several people died in a local nursing home that were untested and died of natural causes. I suppose this all is determined by local authorities. You really don't know what to believe any more.

[bertwert]

Just remember guys...

You Tube

You Tube

[bertwert]

Just remember guys...

It's The End Of The World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine) - YouTube

Wait, oops.... wrong link

You Tube

You Tube

[aslyfox]

. . . You really don't know what to believe any more.

Aesop had it right

[ the boy who cried wolf ]

the " death " of credibility is deadly to all

[aslyfox]

Wait, oops.... wrong link

Monty Python - Always Look on the Bright Side of Life - YouTube

different beat

You Tube

You Tube

[Parallax]

the " death " of credibility is deadly to all

Indeed.
Americans' Trust in Mass Media Edges Down to 41%

[aslyfox]

Indeed.
Americans' Trust in Mass Media Edges Down to 41%

polling is dependent on

who is asked

how they are asked

what is asked

interpretation

" trust me Mr. Dewey, I'm a pollster "

https://www.history.com/news/dewey-defeats-truman-election-headline-gaffe

[Serkevan]

Indeed.
Americans' Trust in Mass Media Edges Down to 41%

I have long held the belief that mass media being owned by billionaires who benefit from mass media not being well regarded is a terrible idea - if the public stops believing journalists, who will report on your misbehaviour?