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03-13-2020, 03:38 AM - 1 Like   #16
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I agree 100 %

and with my age [ 63 ] and " conditions " I am at the young end of the group that we are being told it seems to be most dangerous to

it is a lesson that in the future I hope we never forget

prepare for this stuff before it occurs

03-13-2020, 05:01 AM   #17
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
I use to tell clients:

" we live in the tornado capital of the world

it is possible that a tornado will hit this building in the next 10 seconds

do you want to count or should I ?

It is probable that if I go home tonight and my wife finds out I haven't done what I promised to do, I will be in trouble

worry about the probabilities not the possibilities "
The question is not whether there will be a tornado. The question is how much damage the tornado will do because the tornado will be there for sure. However, we do have a chance to check the back with isolation. If we isolate ourselves, the tornado will be a simple wind. If we don't isolate ourselves it will be a disaster like so many atomic bombs. The only way is total isolation for about two weeks. I repeat the problem is not the mortality rate but the expansion capacity that becomes uncontrollable. In Korea they intervened quickly with many tests and isolations and controlled expansion. Many initial infections because they did so many tests. But then few deaths because they isolated the infected. Not doing the tests is a biological bomb because it spreads without control and even with a low mortality rate, the infected can be hundreds of thousands. The biggest danger is underestimation. Sooner or later everyone must resort to the mandatory isolation measures that affect our personal freedom, but it is absolutely necessary although difficult for our democracies to understand.

it is not possibility, it is certainty. The problem is not the contagion of the individual but the contagion of all. It is very sneaky.


however in france, spain and germany it is already late. it will soon be in the united states too. a few days and you will see.

The same mistakes made by Italy were made, they wanted to close their eyes and bought the lottery ticket. But it wasn't the winning one.
03-13-2020, 05:06 AM   #18
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my story is more directed to the fact that:

- not all exposed will get the disease

- not all who get the disease will get very ill

- not all who get the worse case of the disease will die

that is not to say that it isn't a health and economic problem it is a huge problem

We will take precautions

but I won't be isolating myself in my house

unless I have reason to believe that I am a danger to others because I think I have been exposed and possibly infected

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-13-2020 at 05:12 AM.
03-13-2020, 05:08 AM   #19
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
my story is more directed to the fact that:

- not all exposed will get the disease

- not all who get the disease will get very ill

- not all who get the worse case of the disease will die

that is not to say that it isn't a health and economic problem it is a huge problem
the first is wrong.
If there is no total isolation everyone, or almost everyone, will be exposed to the disease.

many will not have consequences for the disease, but the system will collapse for the high number of those who will have consequences. Few percentage cases on very high numbers are equally many, indeed too many.

---------- Post added 03-13-20 at 05:14 AM ----------

don't be fooled by the numbers. If they do not test, they are not infected. Whoever did the most tests at the beginning fought better.


Last edited by nonpigliounoshoot; 03-13-2020 at 05:14 AM.
03-13-2020, 05:14 AM   #20
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you are entitled to your opinion

BTW you are aware you contradict yourself
QuoteQuote:
If there is no total isolation everyone, or almost everyone, will be exposed to the disease.
by the way I am not a medical professional nor have I played one on stage or screen large or small
03-13-2020, 05:18 AM   #21
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Qui i numeri dei test effettuati, sono fondamentali per capire i dati.

(Here the numbers of the tests carried out are fundamental for understanding the data)

Coronavirus Testing Criteria and Numbers by Country - Worldometer

Last edited by Sandy Hancock; 03-15-2020 at 02:44 AM. Reason: Translation provided
03-13-2020, 05:19 AM   #22
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QuoteOriginally posted by nonpigliounoshoot Quote
Qui i numeri dei test effettuati, sono fondamentali per capire i dati.

Coronavirus Testing Criteria and Numbers by Country - Worldometer
sorry I can barely speak English

the forum requires English or a translation be supplied

does your statistics support an argument that all exposed get the disease ?

perhaps we should continue this discussion via PM ?
03-13-2020, 05:22 AM   #23
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
you are entitled to your opinion

BTW you are aware you contradict yourself


by the way I am not a medical professional nor have I played one on stage or screen large or small

I love democracy, but it is not adequate to respond quickly to this problem. Too many conflicting interests. If you continue to ignore it will not be my opinion looking at what happens in the world, it will be a consequence of our choices. It is only logical, not political.

many do not even notice that they have it, they are without any symptoms, and without any personal consequence, but they contribute to spreading it.


Last edited by nonpigliounoshoot; 03-13-2020 at 05:43 AM.
03-13-2020, 05:25 AM   #24
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QuoteOriginally posted by nonpigliounoshoot Quote
I love democracy, but it is not adequate to respond quickly to this problem. Too many conflicting interests. If you continue to ignore it will not be my opinion looking at what happens in the world, it will be a consequence of our choices. It is only logical, not political.
we can't talk politics here

I know, I've gotten in trouble when someone mistakes a comment I made as " political "

I am not doing that

and yes different opinions are not only nice but valued
03-13-2020, 05:25 AM   #25
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
orse dovremmo continuare questa discussione via PM?
I repeat that this discussion must be public. We have to try to do something. Can you imagine the social and economic consequences if USA, France, Germany, stuck for a month with all the people who have to stay at home without working?

China was able to do this because it has a political structure and economic strength different from our democracies. Here will be chaos. The history of the old epidemics says so.



we have the opportunity to exchange information, between states, not political opinions.
03-13-2020, 05:27 AM   #26
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QuoteOriginally posted by nonpigliounoshoot Quote
. . . Can you imagine the social and economic consequences if USA, France, Germany, stuck for a month with all the people who have to stay at home without working? . . .
and no income

we are in agreement

my suggestion for PM was to avoid hijacking the thread with our discussion

no problem with public discussion at all

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-13-2020 at 05:34 AM.
03-13-2020, 05:33 AM   #27
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
and no income

we are in agreement

this is what will happen. It is a certainty, not a probability. Look at China, Korea, Italy and others. The tornado. The earlier you start isolation the sooner you finish and it will be less strong. It will soon be very strong and uncontrollable.
03-13-2020, 06:31 AM - 1 Like   #28
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
my story is more directed to the fact that:

- not all exposed will get the disease

- not all who get the disease will get very ill

- not all who get the worse case of the disease will die

that is not to say that it isn't a health and economic problem it is a huge problem

We will take precautions

but I won't be isolating myself in my house

unless I have reason to believe that I am a danger to others because I think I have been exposed and possibly infected

I fear there could be a lot of boomer deaths in the upcoming months due to the cavalier approach by your generation to this pandemic.

And it seems many in your generation have this attitude too Boomers Are Ignoring Coronavirus Risks, and Their Millennial Children Are Scared - VICE like teenagers you think you're invincible and it is no big deal... just a cold.. maybe a flu right? Right for most healthy young people (sub 40). But it is really more like a severe pneumonia for many who have weakened immune systems (such as the elderly; 60+). Once it gets into your lungs, it can fill them with fluid as your immune system works hard to fight the virus. The potential for ARDS (and a mechanical ventilator) increases if it gets lower in the lungs. I've seen many reports of people who have or do have this SARS-CoV-2 and they said it felt like they were constantly drowning due to all the fluid on their lungs and wouldn't have lived without the ventilator. And that's those that survived -- dead men tell no tales and some reports were by their now widows.


But even if you feel fine, you could be infected and contagious. So you likely won't know until its too late. Median time to show symptoms is 5.1 days!! Coronavirus symptoms start about five days after exposure, Johns Hopkins study finds | Hub

Reported R0 (transmission rate) was reported at 3.6 in China (early before mandatory quarantine for everyone) Study on SARS-COV-2 transmission and the effects of control measures in China | medRxiv though it lowered substantially when everyone quarantined (which makes sense -- it can't spread if there is no socialization).
"The death toll skews old even more strongly. Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39.The age-related death risk probably reflects the strength, or weakness, of the respiratory system. About half of the 109 Covid-19 patients (ages 22 to 94) treated at Central Hospital of Wuhan, researchers there reported, developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), in which fluid builds up in the small air sacs of the lungs. That restricts how much air the lungs can take in, reducing the oxygen supply to vital organs, sometimes fatally; half of the ARDS patients died, compared to 9% of patients who did not develop the syndrome."


"In the first large study of the effect of underlying illness, researchers in China analyzed 1,590 patients from throughout the country with laboratory-confirmed disease. They calculated how “co-morbidities” — existing illnesses — affected the risk of being admitted to intensive care, being put on a ventilator, or dying.After taking into account the patients’ ages and smoking status, the researchers found that the 399 patients with at least one additional disease (including cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hepatitis B, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, chronic kidney diseases, and cancer) had a 79% greater chance of requiring intensive care or a respirator or both, or of dying..."

Who is getting sick? A look at coronavirus risk by age, gender, and more

So I don't think it is panicking to really weigh the reality of the situation and look at the risk for your particular age group and health situation (are you diabetic, smoker, heart or lung disease, etc) instead of looking at the by line that says 'most people get better' because those 40 and younger with no underlying conditions are skewing the figures to make it look better than it is for the over 60+ers who are negatively weighing the scale down.

One can avoid this by simply staying home for a few weeks and letting the surge blow off. At the very least, if one does get it, maybe in a few weeks those who were cavalier will have caught it, been treated, or died. And a hospital bed with a ventilator will be available should one need it then.
03-13-2020, 06:37 AM - 1 Like   #29
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QuoteOriginally posted by mee Quote
I fear there could be a lot of boomer deaths in the upcoming months due to the cavalier approach by your generation to this pandemic. . . . .
sorry you feel that way

don't confuse my personal opinion for the opinions of others

the one rule of generalities is that usually they are wrong

___________________________

despite whatever your intent was

I feel personally attacked

yes I am aware of what you say and quote

I am 63 and a type II diabetic with high blood pressure

so I fall within the highest risk categories

yet I refuse to go into my closet at this time

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-13-2020 at 07:03 AM.
03-13-2020, 06:40 AM   #30
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I recommend this thread for a short break from our discussion

A 5 minute break from the virus - PentaxForums.com
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