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03-21-2020, 02:31 PM   #466
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QuoteOriginally posted by gaweidert Quote
Well, somewhere near 40% of the people who get it will never show symptoms of it. This is skewing the data quite a bit. Only people with severe symptoms are being tested. In Italy over 99% of the people who have died had pre-existing medical conditions. In fact they have generated excellent stats related number of pre existing condition to probability of death.


In the US somewhere near 680 people die each day from mistakes made by medical professionals. (Study done last year by Johns Hopkins medical school.) These are admitted mistakes and according to the report, their stats say that the actual number may be 100,000 deaths higher. Yet, I see no alarm over that report.
I think the .5 to 1 percent mortality rate does factor that in. In China the death rate for those who tested positive was 3 plus percent. In Italy, with the medical resources maxed out, it calculates out to 9 percent. And few of the people in Italy are listed as "recovered" yet.

Italy has an old population that smokes. That definitely makes things worse for them, but this is pretty bad.

I looked at that Johns Hopkins study and while it is interesting, I think it overstated the problem of medical errors significantly. They said that a medical error was any action that did not achieve its intended goal or was detrimental in any way to the patient. They then extrapolated based on that to figure out what percent of deaths were "caused" by medical errors. The reality is that some of the deaths were preventable, but often, even with the very best care, people would die anyway. These are not situations where a doctor prescribes penicillin to someone who is allergic and then they die that evening or send someone home with a myocardial infarction.

This is not to say that there are not errors and that they do not need to be dealt with, but that they are nowhere on the order of the severity of what we are seeing in New York State and Italy right now with regard to COVID 19.

03-21-2020, 02:49 PM - 1 Like   #467
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Off topic, but what the heck.

QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
some things re hard for me to " visualize "
In the computer science world there is the long repeated story of Commodore Grace Hopper who would hand out nanoseconds to those people attending her lectures. They were 30cm wires => one nanometer or the distance a beam of light would travel in a nanosecond. So you have a visualization of a nanosecond at 30cm with simple arithmatic you can "visualize" 120 nm at 3,600 cm. If you go here: A Color Spectrum Chart With Frequencies and Wavelengths - Science Struck you will see that 120nm is not in the visible light range of human vision i.e. you can not see the organism with a visible light microscope. "Instead, the CDC scientists had to use a more high-powered transmission electron microscope to see the particle." Pictured: Microscope images reveal tiny but deadly coronavirus particles | Daily Mail Online

Even further off topic - more about Grace Hopper.
One of the creators of COBOL.
The clock in her office ran counter clockwise.
She and her team working on early mechanical/electrical computers found a dead moth caught between the points on a relay - she put the moth in the log book and used the term "bug" - hence the first real bug found in the field of Computer Science (before computer science was a separate branch of mathematics/engineering or anything called Computer Science). Her team would periodically go through the relay's of the computer looking for "bugs" hence the term "debugging".
She is one of my Computer Science culture heroes.

Last edited by PDL; 03-21-2020 at 02:57 PM.
03-21-2020, 02:58 PM   #468
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I knew of the bug story

still off topic

my Dad worked for State Farm Insurance at their Corporate headquarters in Bloomington IL

one of my early memories [ mid 1960s ish ] was when he went back to " school " and became a computer programmer for it. I remember visiting his work area in the old no air conditioned building and then his other work place in the air conditioned building containing the huge reel to reel IBM machines and their punch card machines

we claimed he went into that field because of the air conditioning

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-21-2020 at 03:42 PM.
03-21-2020, 04:01 PM   #469
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
I think the .5 to 1 percent mortality rate does factor that in. In China the death rate for those who tested positive was 3 plus percent. In Italy, with the medical resources maxed out, it calculates out to 9 percent. And few of the people in Italy are listed as "recovered" yet.
...
The medical resources are a factor in the mortality rate. For example, in Germany they are maxed out at 40 000 new infections per day (best case) or 20 000 per day in the worst case.

That would be by end of next week, worst case. Hopefully later or not at all.

The Imperial College London calculated (Report 9) that the US and UK would need to have 8 x the ICU beds in order to cope with the best case scenario.

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03-21-2020, 04:31 PM - 5 Likes   #470
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Clearly, you haven't reckoned with one of my home-made curries
Speaking of spices, this tip from Reddit seems like great advice:


03-21-2020, 04:35 PM - 1 Like   #471
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QuoteOriginally posted by PDL Quote
In the computer science world there is the long repeated story of Commodore Grace Hopper who would hand out nanoseconds to those people attending her lectures. They were 30cm wires => one nanometer or the distance a beam of light would travel in a nanosecond. So you have a visualization of a nanosecond at 30cm with simple arithmatic you can "visualize" 120 nm at 3,600 cm. If you go here: A Color Spectrum Chart With Frequencies and Wavelengths - Science Struck you will see that 120nm is not in the visible light range of human vision i.e. you can not see the organism with a visible light microscope. "Instead, the CDC scientists had to use a more high-powered transmission electron microscope to see the particle." Pictured: Microscope images reveal tiny but deadly coronavirus particles | Daily Mail Online

Even further off topic - more about Grace Hopper.
One of the creators of COBOL.
The clock in her office ran counter clockwise.
She and her team working on early mechanical/electrical computers found a dead moth caught between the points on a relay - she put the moth in the log book and used the term "bug" - hence the first real bug found in the field of Computer Science (before computer science was a separate branch of mathematics/engineering or anything called Computer Science). Her team would periodically go through the relay's of the computer looking for "bugs" hence the term "debugging".
She is one of my Computer Science culture heroes.

I have a nanometer in my old Air Force stuff, form a talk she gave at Offutt AFB years ago. A very very very cool old gal, err Admiral.
03-21-2020, 04:38 PM   #472
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QuoteOriginally posted by devouges Quote
With all the modern photo technology we have, why is it not possible (yet) to get a photo of the virus ? All we get are hand-drawn images or a fussy red blob with spikes on it that look like WW2 water mine.
(
We do have images.
COVID-19 Is Deadlier Than The Flu. How Else Do They Differ? : Goats and Soda : NPR
First Coronavirus (COVID-19) Case Confirmed in the City of Milwaukee Urban Milwaukee

Better yet just google "covid 19 virus first images"
03-21-2020, 04:54 PM   #473
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problems seem to be appearing about using unproved methods re: the virus

QuoteQuote:
. . . outlining a potential problem with suggesting treatment options that have yet to be vetted.

“Friends who use chloroquine to treat lupus have already started to get in touch with my staff to report that they can no longer get their prescriptions,” . . .

Hydroxychloroquine
was first used to “prevent and treat malaria” and now treats rheumatoid arthritis, childhood arthritis, certain symptoms of lupus and other autoimmune diseases, according to the American College of Rheumatology. Azithromycin is an antibiotic used to treat various types of infections.

As of Saturday evening, neither drug had been approved to treat coronavirus by the Food and Drug Administration or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. . . ,



Last edited by aslyfox; 03-22-2020 at 03:04 AM.
03-21-2020, 05:29 PM - 2 Likes   #474
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QuoteOriginally posted by VSTAR Quote
The UK government leaders believe they are smarter than all the other scientists and do not believe they are susceptible in the general pop to the virus. Until this AM the only recommendation, to my knowledge, was for the sick and elderly to stay home and be careful. But the rest of the pop.."herd" protection...or herd infection...since even the scientists did not understand what the PM meant. Now that the infection rate and # deaths are increasing they are finally changing their plan. Unfortunately it may be 1-2 weeks too late. Nobody knows why the UK decided not to ramp up anti-viral control/reduction like other countries.

---------- Post added 03-20-2020 at 04:48 PM ----------




The interesting about ibuprofen and ACE-2 medications for hypertension...and coronavirus: the media picked up reports that were observational and never tested. A cardiology expert had to write a paper to the medical community to state that nothing has been proven. The ibuprofen story is interesting in that the WHO blew it when one spokesperson stated not to take it and the next statement said there is no evidence to support it.

"Earlier reports said a spokesperson had cautioned against using ibuprofen to manage symptoms of the illness caused by the coronavus until WHO experts could investigate.

Ibuprofen is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory medicine, or NSAID. It's sold under a number of brand names, including Advil and Nurofen. In addition to treating pain, it's often used to manage fever associated with various viral or bacterial infections.
WHO clarified its position Wednesday evening in a tweet saying "at present, based on currently available information, WHO does not recommend against the use of ibuprofen."

Can't believe everything you hear or see until you investigate it properly.

From what I have read...the current recommendation is that ACE-2 for hypertension should not be discontinued. In sick, elderly, infected patients, one may want to be careful in prescribing this medication for the first time. Ibuprofen can be used in healthy individuals and those infected with the virus may want to consider other medications such as Tylenol. But nothing has been proven.

There were also reports that HIV medications may help with treatment if infected with the virus. A report just came out today that showed this treatment has not been successful.

They are now researching an anti-malarial drug, Hydoxychloroquine. So far looks promising.
These stories about conflicting advice about ibuprofen and ACE-2 medications reflect unavoidable problems in dealing with the unknown.

Whether a drug interacts beneficially or detrimentally with something new like COVID-19 is simply unknown at the start. Experts are forced to make plausible extrapolations that combine: 1) what is known about the effects of these medications (which may be a fair amount) and 2) what is known about COVID-19 (which may be very little). Even now it's not clear whether the advice to continue using ibuprofen arises from true evidence of an absence of a detrimental interaction or simply an absence of evidence of such an interaction.

Whether any of those plausible extrapolations are right is really something that only a scientific experiment can determine. The gold-standard for science is the double-blind experiment, carefully designed, carefully implemented, and peer reviewed. But that takes time which is something no one has right now!

Note it may be very good if some countries diverge in the recommended treatments. These natural experiments aren't as good as true double-blind but they do provide some insight into how differences in treatments lead to different outcomes. The worst option is if everyone believes the same thing, gives all the patients the same treatment, but it's wrong. That's a double disaster because it both kills more people and provides no knowledge of how wrong the expert-recommended treatment might be.

So plausible extrapolation, fractious debate, and conflicting recommendations are the best that we humans can hope for.
03-21-2020, 05:29 PM - 6 Likes   #475
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I might have to start drinking gin and tonics regularly. I mean do my own research.😉
03-21-2020, 05:32 PM - 5 Likes   #476
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QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Clearly, you haven't reckoned with one of my home-made curries


Just a thought for you folks stuck at home isolating - please adjust your food input to your energy output !! ( Curries included Mike.)

" Why ? " you ask.

1) Not burning off the calories you usually would will make you tubby/unhealthy very quickly.

2) Your food supplies will last longer.

3) Less toilet paper required.

Stay as safe as you can folks.

EDIT - Of course, this non-medical advice applies to me, your circumstances may vary.

Last edited by pjv; 03-22-2020 at 04:56 AM. Reason: Typo
03-21-2020, 05:58 PM - 1 Like   #477
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QuoteOriginally posted by RoxnDox Quote
I have a nanometer in my old Air Force stuff, form a talk she gave at Offutt AFB years ago. A very very very cool old gal, err Admiral.
Oh go right ahead and make me jealous. If I had one of those I would have it framed and on the wall.
03-21-2020, 06:07 PM - 3 Likes   #478
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How Much Toilet Paper?! - The Coronavirus Toilet Paper Calculator
03-21-2020, 07:50 PM - 2 Likes   #479
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A couple of extra memes for extra levity in these trying quarantining times:
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03-21-2020, 11:18 PM   #480
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Went to supermarket today, stocks are returning to normal, sill some empty shelves, Walmart was similar situation. I also went to the nursery to buy Oleander, business was normal, except I saw one woman with a dust mask.
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