[Sandy Hancock]

What exactly am I denying?

What you are denying is how much worse this will get, and how quickly.

Specific to the USA, the rate of climb is much higher than anywhere else - doubling every two days rather than 3-5 days everywhere else. At day 22, the US is already above where China, Italy and Spain were at the same stage.

Once the health system becomes overwhelmed (as it soon will be - very soon in New York) the death rate will rise rapidly. I have seen modelling which predicts something like 1.5 million deaths in the USA - and that's assuming a 1% mortality, which is rather optimistic if things keep going the way they are.

[Sandy Hancock]

I'll be right over.....

Umm... have Sth Aust closed the border??

I'm afraid so. I'm sure there will still be some left over though, when this storm blows over. You'd be most welcome then

[wizofoz]

I'm afraid so. I'm sure there will still be some left over though, when this storm blows over. You'd be most welcome then

I'll make camp at Bordertown and be there all the sooner...

[Sandy Hancock]

I'll make camp at Bordertown and be there all the sooner...

It will have to be Kaniva. Bordertown is on the wrong side

[wizofoz]

It will have to be Kaniva. Bordertown is on the wrong side

Hmm, good point

What about a boat parked off Port Adelaide?

[noelpolar]

Hmm, good point

What about a boat parked off Port Adelaide?

Come to Goolwa via the Murray Mouth.... nobody will be watching the mouth. I can take you overland from there.

If you do this.... call me a half hour before you come through the mouth so I can take photos.

[aslyfox]

I'm afraid so. I'm sure there will still be some left over though, when this storm blows over. You'd be most welcome then

they are still delivering stuff here

do I have to wait ?

Sandy can you send me a package of what you have so I can sample some new stuff ?

What you are denying is how much worse this will get, and how quickly.

Specific to the USA, the rate of climb is much higher than anywhere else - doubling every two days rather than 3-5 days everywhere else. At day 22, the US is already above where China, Italy and Spain were at the same stage.

Once the health system becomes overwhelmed (as it soon will be - very soon in New York) the death rate will rise rapidly. I have seen modelling which predicts something like 1.5 million deaths in the USA - and that's assuming a 1% mortality, which is rather optimistic if things keep going the way they are.

" . . . there's the rub . . . "

for sure

it's supposed to be nice today here

icon
TODAY
WED 03/25
HIGH 74 F10% Precip. / 0.00 in
Cloudy skies this morning will become partly cloudy this afternoon. High 74F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph.

time for a stroll, by myself of course with the camera

---

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-25-2020 at 01:04 AM.

[BigMackCam]

That is just not true. Check out the CDC website, do not take my word for it...2019/2020 flu season for USA 23,000 to 59,000 deaths, 38 to 54 million illnesses 390,000 to 710,000 hospital visits. What exactly am I denying?

The problem is, some people are comparing the end-of-season totals of flu infections, deaths and hospital visits to those of the rapidly spreading, not yet peaking, COVID-19 and concluding that flu is worse. But flu viruses are mostly well understood, quite well controlled through vaccination, and have a much lower rate of spread, putting far less strain on health services. COVID-19 is far worse because its not well understood, there's no vaccine, and it spreads at a much higher rate. Furthermore, COVID-19 can have an unusually long incubation period, during which the carrier may be more-or-less symptom free but is capable of spreading the disease due to viral shedding. Then, only a small percentage of those showing symptoms of potential infection are actually being tested; the rest are merely being advised to self-isolate. As such, we can be quite certain that the number of people currently infected is much higher than reported, and the number requiring hospital treatment is very soon going to outstrip availability of intensive care hospital beds and possibly qualified staff.

I'm sure you already know and understand all of this, but it's clear that some folks don't, they're not taking enough precautions or listening to official advice as a result, and therefore they're part of the problem, putting themselves and others at risk. They may be infecting and, ultimately, killing people without knowing it.

The above isn't a scary story - it's what we know from the experiences of China, Italy and now the rest of Europe. The US is starting to experience rapid spread too. It may not look too bad right now, but at the daily rate of spread, hospitalisation and deaths, the potential impact looking ahead, say, 14 - 28 days is shocking

[Serkevan]

That is just not true. Check out the CDC website, do not take my word for it...2019/2020 flu season for USA 23,000 to 59,000 deaths, 38 to 54 million illnesses 390,000 to 710,000 hospital visits. What exactly am I denying?

I posted earlier in the thread that the flu kills, in Spain, 400-1000 people per year (directly). That's over a period of about 6 months (same as the us). Covid-19 is at 2500 deaths in a month. The US is gonna be on a worse progression.

Seriously, how many times have hospitals in NYC come close to collapsing because of the flu? Everyone I know in healthcare is scared because it's really, really not "just a flu".

[aslyfox]

Note: The map shows the known locations of coronavirus cases by county. Circles are sized by the number of people there who have tested positive, which may differ from where they contracted the illness. Some people who traveled overseas were taken for treatment in California, Nebraska and Texas. Puerto Rico and the other U.S. territories are not shown. Sources: State and local health agencies, hospitals, C.D.C. Data as of 2:23 a.m. E.T., Mar. 25.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action...epage#g-us-map

article:


Coronavirus in the U.S.: Latest Map and Case Count - The New York Times

[BigMackCam]

I'm reminded of the exchange between Mayor Larry Vaughn, Hooper and Brody in Jaws:

Larry Vaughn: I don't think either of you is familiar with our problems...

Hooper: I'm familiar with the fact that you are going to ignore this thing until it swims up and bites you on the a**! There are only two ways to solve this thing: you can kill it, or you can cut off its food supply...

Brody: That means closing the beaches.

[Dartmoor Dave]

People's reactions out there in the world in general seem to be dividing into two main camps:

1: I need to make urgent changes to my way of life to deal with this while the immediate crisis is ongoing, and then afterwards I'll probably go through a period of considering longer term changes to my priorities in life too.

2: I don't want to make any changes to my own way of life or give up any of my privileges, and if that means that others have to die but I survive then I'm fine with that.

I suspect that many of those in the second group will find themselves migrating to the first group as people who they love start to suffer. Personally I've already had experience of the virus affecting members of my family, so of course I fall squarely into the first category. (And please note: this is a comment about the world in general and not aimed at forum members specifically.)

[aslyfox]

there has been an overnight official modification to the restrictions - " Safer At Home " - here in Shawnee County Kansas

we are allowed to leave our homes for various reasons previously noted and

to leave the home to go to exercise/walk etc

so long as it is not with others outside of your immediate families

parks are ok but not playgrounds

no planned meetings

maintain " social distance "

you are advised that local law enforcement might question what you are doing outside of your home

no one can come to your home except family

[swanlefitte]

One should point out SARS, MERS, COVID 19 are all corona viruss.

The usual flu is not one flu. Influenza A B C D and there are 131 known types of A.

Its like comparing deaths by all mammals vs tsetse flies not even insects. And the tsetse kills about 10000/ year.

[Rondec]

To those who are chafing at the rules that are in place, there are a few things to remember.

(1) COVID tends to double every three days if we do nothing at all. That means that even if your state has only 300 cases today, by the end of next week they could be at several thousand and climbing steadily from there.

(2) Early implementation of aggressive measures is more likely to have an effect than late implementation of even more aggressive measures. This really is a Titanic-Iceberg situation and it may be pretty late to turn or stop the ship in some places like NYC.

(3) Current death rates in the United States mean nothing. We have not maxed out our ventilators quite yet and most people with COVID 19 take awhile to die -- about eight to ten days from time of diagnosis. Running a calculation today will significantly undershoot your eventual mortality level.

(4) Rules in place today are not "forever" rules. I don't truly believe that anyone is trying a power grab and going to institute some kind of ongoing martial law. As soon as they can, they will open businesses back up. The reality is the damaged economy is going to hurt all of our elected officials reelection chances.

(5) Even if you did nothing and left businesses open as usual, the economy would be severely damage by this virus. Until the number of new cases starts to fall, business will not resume as usual. Does anyone really think that Italy is just experiencing a "bad flu" and that if they did nothing at all, that tourists would be flocking there? I don't think so.

Someone mentioned testing and testing is coming on line in a more major way (as illustrated in the Politico link I posted earlier). So far the US has tested 370,000 people, but the rate of increase in testing is quite a bit, particularly in states like New York where they have done nearly 100,000 tests. I still think that chances are pretty good that things get a lot worse before they get better -- here and elsewhere.