Originally posted by timb64 Just found out my next door neighbours’ two sons who live and work in London have moved “home” for the duration.
We live 70 miles from London in a small market town and they are putting people locally at risk by moving to what they regard as a safer area and if they become ill will put undue strain on the local hospital.
They are also clearly ignoring Government guidance to Stay at home and not make any unnecessary journeys or social contacts.
As I have stated before using my skills of circumlocution, the movement of populations from a hot spot to a presumed safe area is how these things spread. Look at the ruckus with NY last week. The governors of several states send the cops around to "second homes" of New Yorker's to see if they had got to their "safe" place and in some cases they demanded that those people self isolate for 14 days whether they had symptoms or not.
In the early days of the North American continent when Smallpox was rampant among the Spanish/French/English (mostly the Spanish) the indigenous people would see their villages being over run by dead people and they would flee upriver (think Mississippi). The virus went with them and the estimates of the dead range up to 90% of the base population. That is millions of people to the point where during the 1700 and 1800's the so called white explorers stated that "they were the first people to ever see this spot". In the mid 1800's the villages on the middle to upper Missouri River were nearly wiped out. The disease even spread to the plains people and even down to the Pueblo cultures of the SouthWest US. In 1862 the NW Coast peoples of the US (out near where I live) population dropped by 50-90% depending on the location. Influenza is also a killer, especially in the Amazon basin. There are documented events where Missionaries moved into a area to contact "lost tribes" and within six months entire cultures have been wiped out - 100% death rate - due to the collapse of the social underpinnings of the society.
When this virus gets into war areas (Syria etc) the rush of people to refuge camps (Turkey, Jordan, Iraq) is going to be a disaster. The same thing will happen in Africa in the crowded cities as infected people go home to get out of the city. The slums of Brazil and India are going to be additional spots to contend with. In Central America there will be people trying to get to the US and Mexico is going to take a big hit.
As for those countries that say they do not have all that many cases, they are either lying outright or they really have no way to measure how many people are sick. Add into this there are still people having the old fashion flu, Strokes, Heart attacks, Appendicitis, car wrecks and other medical conditions that require the same or similar resources that the virus is burning through. This ain't going to be pretty.