Originally posted by timb64 Perspective
185,197 Deaths caused by water related
diseases this year
802,572,830 People with no access to
a safe drinking water source[COLOR="Silver"]
Perspective:
If COVID-19 is not stopped then at its current rate of growth, it will have killed 185,197 in about 17 days from now. Moreover, without measures to halt the spread, it won't stop there.
It will go on to kill another 185,197 in the subsequent 4 days. (Total death toll 370,000 within 3 weeks)
It will go on to kill another 370,000 in the subsequent 4 days. (Total death toll 740,000 within 3.5 weeks)
Without measures to halt the spread, the disease will chew its way through most of the world's urban population and some of the rural population, too.
And here's the kicker, latent infections and developing infections ensure that even if we take all the steps to halt it immediately, the death toll will continue to sky-rocket for at least a week or so as the existing infected people get sick, get sicker, and die. Waiting until confirmation that "it's bad" ensures that it will get a lot worse.
Note: these numbers may actually under-estimate the projected death toll because during the initial phases, the hospitals can cope with case load. When the number of sick people is low, everyone gets the treatment they need and less than 1% die. But if the case load grows, the hospitals can't cope and then 5% to 8% die as has happened in Wuhan, Italy, and Iran.
I'm not minimizing the problem of safe drinking water, it's a sad crisis, too. But it is simply and deeply wrong and dangerous to compare a chronic problem that has zero chance of rapidly spreading (unless COVID-19 knocks the utility grid off-line) to an acute problem that is rapidly accelerating.
So to put it in perspective:
802,572,830 People with no access to a safe drinking water source and about
0.02% die each year.
7,771,392,113 People are susceptible to COVID-19 and about
0.3% to 1.0% will die if the disease is allowed to spread unchecked. If allowed to spread, COVID-19 is
150X-500X worse than unsafe drinking water.