[timb64]

I didn't think you found anything else insulting, you asked for a nuanced discussion and I tried to provide it while keeping with the headline of your source and the "no politics" rule. I did, however, get irked at your very explicit statement that I say it's "my way or the highway" when you haven't provided any argument whatsoever apart from "there are other causes of death". I did also get very irked at your implication that I blindly follow "the politics", when I have done my best to understand the data, get as much information as possible and form my own opinion on the matter. Should I - also blindly - agree with an approach that has only been vaguely outlined and defies the reality that we are seeing?


In any case, please elaborate on how your proposed course of action would work.

I don’t recall proposing a course of action,just encouraging a wider discussion.

[aslyfox]

there has been an change here in Topeka due to the fact that an infected person is being treated at one of the two hospitals here in town:

will take effect at 12:01 a.m. Thursday. duration 30 days

A “safe at home” order was issued for Shawnee County late Tuesday afternoon, hours after a person from Woodson County became the first patient identified here as having COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus.

Shawnee County Health Officer Gianfranco Pezzino announced he had signed the order, which calls for everyone to remain home except to meet essential needs such as getting food, care for a relative or friends, receive necessary health care or work at an essential job.

The order was issued soon after a patient tested positive at Stormont Vail Health, where President and CEO Robert Kenagy said he had been referred from Woodson County.

Results of the test were received within 48 hours of the time it was administered, Kenagy said.

Stormont Vail has precautions in place and will remain open to patients and visitors, said Stormont Vail public relations specialist Matthew Lara.

“The team at Stormont Vail followed all safety precautions and guidelines set forth by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as well as local and state health departments,” he said. “These include placing the patient in a negative airflow isolation room as well as requiring all members of the care team to wear personal protective equipment such as the Powered Air Purifying Respirator (PAPR), gloves and gowns.” . . .

No stay-at-home order has been issued for Shawnee County, though County Health Officer Gianfranco Pezzino last week issued an order limiting public gatherings here to 10 people or fewer while closing restaurants, dining facilities, bars, taverns, clubs and movie theaters.

?Safe at home? order issued for Shawnee County - News - The Topeka Capital-Journal - Topeka, KS

look like they don't want folks out even with " social distancing " practices

one source says it is a stay at home order, perhaps typo ?

[Parallax]

and the rest will have a brave new world to endure".

I have enough trouble enduring this one sometimes.

[Parallax]

We have one known case in my county. An inmate at the women's prison.

[Serkevan]

We have one known case in my county. An inmate at the women's prison.

Prisons are bad news for outbreaks... easy propagation inside in particular if it's overcrowded. In this case it probably means someone from the staff brought it in.

[clackers]

We have one known case in my county. An inmate at the women's prison.

I guess she'll be easy to isolate. Elsewhere in the world, Covid-19 carriers are walking around.

I think it was Singapore that have forced those diagnosed to install an app on their phone so they can be tracked for 14 days. That phone shouldn't ever be traced in a shopping mall or a workplace or whatever.

[BigMackCam]

We have one known case in my county. An inmate at the women's prison.

That's good news.

So long as social mobility into your county is limited and controlled, good testing and healthcare are available, you might get by relatively unscathed. Review the situation in a couple of weeks, though, as this thing has a long incubation period. Hopefully the numbers won't have increased too much, or at all... though I think that unlikely, I'm afraid.

Based on what was happening in China and beginning to happen in Italy, I started buying in some extras with my grocery shopping just under a month ago. Less than four weeks. Back then (it feels odd to say that for such a short time period), folks here thought the virus was just something happening to other people. Even two weeks ago, the numbers weren't especially remarkable.

The UK is about the size of one good US state in land mass, though of course much more heavily populated. As of today (24th March), according to the BBC, "More than 8,077 cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the UK, but the actual number of cases is estimated to be much higher". Here's their graph of confirmed cases identified daily, followed by the regional breakdown of deaths:








These figures are bad enough, but given that we're probably two weeks away from the reality due to incubation period, and greater testing is (hopefully) on the way, I suspect the numbers will climb significantly

---

Last edited by BigMackCam; 03-24-2020 at 04:07 PM.

[timb64]

Prisons are bad news for outbreaks... easy propagation inside in particular if it's overcrowded. In this case it probably means someone from the staff brought it in.

Why staff rather than a visitor?

[clackers]

Alright, I think I might be the one guy who didn't get the epidemic memo and apparently managed to catch the common cold: I have a headache, but clogged nose and wet cough without fever, which is 1/4 for coronavirus

If I don't get substantially worse I'm just gonna continue as planned and not leave the house.

Hmmm. Wise.

There aren't four symptoms for Covid-19. There can be any, or none, of the same symptoms as the cold or flu (in fact, perhaps 30 percent of colds were always coronaviruses of four strains).

From very good data, the passengers of the Diamond Princess, we know that fifty percent of those who tested positive had no symptoms! And remember, the lab test isn't to antibodies, it's directly to one of the Covid-19 proteins.

Take care, anyway, mate, mitigating symptoms is of course the same as what you do for a cold.

[Parallax]

I guess she'll be easy to isolate. Elsewhere in the world, Covid-19 carriers are walking around.

I think it was Singapore that have forced those diagnosed to install an app on their phone so they can be tracked for 14 days. That phone shouldn't ever be traced in a shopping mall or a workplace or whatever.

What do they think stops someone from leaving their phone at home and going out and about? Duh!
That's one of the more ridiculous approaches ever.

[Serkevan]

Hmmm. Wise.

There aren't four symptoms for Covid-19. There can be any, or none, of the same symptoms as the cold or flu (in fact, perhaps 30 percent of colds were always coronaviruses of four strains).

From very good data, the passengers of the Diamond Princess, we know that fifty percent of those who tested positive had no symptoms! And remember, the lab test isn't to antibodies, it's directly to one of the Covid-19 proteins.

Take care, anyway, mate, mitigating symptoms is of course the same as what you do for a cold.

I meant that of all the symptoms I have, only one is "common" for covid-19. Sure, it's still possible that it *is* the darn thing, but it's more probably a cold (since the new thing only attacks the lower respiratory tract).
I've been drinking copious amounts of tea and water to stay hydrated, and cuddled the cat against his (very grumpy) will, so all good so far

[aslyfox]

. . . , good testing and healthcare are available,

the access to testing in the US is bad

even for those in health care, first responders or those highly suspected of being infected

health care - that is the scary issue due to limited numbers of qualified hospital beds and equipment, including ventilators and protective gear

will our health care systems be prepared for the anticipated onset ?

[BigMackCam]

the access to testing in the US is bad

Right... and that's kind of my point. Testing hasn't been particularly good here in the UK either, yet even with that limitation, our numbers have risen scarily. For several days now, our official advice for those believing they may be infected is to self-isolate and only contact the health services if symptoms worsen beyond home management. As such, we undoubtedly have a lot of folks with the virus that aren't showing up in our "confirmed cases" figures. The spread is much bigger than we see in the stats. The corollary to that, of course, is that deaths as a percentage of cases is also lower, since all deaths are known whilst all cases of infection aren't. But that's pretty cold comfort...

[BigMackCam]

Just when all seems to be bad news, a little ray of light shines through...

A small, family-run company in Wales, with the help of a senior health services consultant, has developed a basic, filtered ventilator unit for emergency use and is set to manufacture them at the rate of 100 a day

Coronavirus UK: Small engineering company makes ventilator | Daily Mail Online

[swanlefitte]

I would love to see stats based on population clusters, density, and per capita. For instance NY state population has 43% in NY city. But it could be 95% of cases and tests are from that 43%. New Orleans is less than 25% of LA.
Those English city stats do better but without per capita is hard to make anything out of. If Leeds has 10% less cases than London, Leeds is much worse, etc.