[PDL]

The more advanced countries like South Korea and Singapore handled it.

Singapore has 5.7 million people, New York has 8.4 million. South Korea has 50 million, New York State 19.85, California has 39.54 million (2017) together those two states have nine million more people than South Korea. The population of the US is around 330,000,000.

Your comparison amounts to false logic. Both Singapore and South Korea used methods to track people and got people to comply with their rules that would get a lot of people really upset in the US. Those countries have a societies that are not only smaller than the US, they are much more uniform in their societal norms and conformity in terms of behavior.

There is a village in Italy that tested all of the people in it (3,000). That does not mean that the country of Italy has the capability to test everyone. This virus is disproportionately going to hit those who are in crowded and poor environments. If you compare the relative numbers of poor crowded people in both Singapore and South Korea compared to the US, they are worlds apart. Don't conflate small well organized countries with large semi organized countries.

[mkgd1]

I think I'll drop out of this thread for a while, so much pessimism. I'll check back in a few weeks and either :
1) Let you know I was wrong.
2) Tell you all "I told you so"
3) I won't check back at all, I caught it and died.

[ramseybuckeye]

New York is so densely populated and people there were slow to keep social distancing, having big events just a few days ago (so we were told by the news), and in New Orleans if there was anyone infected at the Mardi Gras they have possibly passed it to thousands. It's interesting that some states are taking it much more seriously than others. Our Governor in Ohio seems to be way ahead in this regard. The "this is no worse than the flu" crowd were really bashing him a few weeks ago. Some of that same crowd is upset because they work for essential businesses and have to work instead of sitting home collecting unemployment. I was shocked when I read those comments on the governor's twitter feed.

[MarkJerling]

I think I'll drop out of this thread for a while, so much pessimism. I'll check back in a few weeks and either :
1) Let you know I was wrong.
2) Tell you all "I told you so"
3) I won't check back at all, I caught it and died.

It's not pessimism. It's realism. My grandparents met during the 1918 Influenza epidemic. That was bad. This disease has the potential to be worse and we live in an era ob better medicines, better health care and better connectivity.

[BigMackCam]

I think I'll drop out of this thread for a while, so much pessimism.

This thread discussion is - and always was - about coronavirus COVID-19. It was never going to be as upbeat as those about folks' photographic exploits and gear

That said, with respect I think you're mistaking an altruistic desire to share the severity and possible outcomes of the situation with pessimism. If you look at the measures governments are having to take globally, listen to the senior scientific and medical advisers, and - if you care to - briefly analyse the published growth rates of confirmed infections and fatalities, all of this tells you this clearly isn't just another flu epidemic.

I'll check back in a few weeks and either :
1) Let you know I was wrong.
2) Tell you all "I told you so"
3) I won't check back at all, I caught it and died.

If everyone takes proper social distancing, self-isolation and sanitising precautions as advised - if everyone takes their own and other folks' safety seriously and acts accordingly - then there's reason to be hopeful the overall impact on public health and risks to us all can be significantly reduced. If the rate of spread can be retarded sufficiently, our healthcare systems should be able to cope without becoming or remaining maxed out, and once effective treatments and vaccines are identified and/or synthesized, we can start to deal with this virus head-on.

Please, take precautions and stay safe. Good luck and good health to you and your family

[Serkevan]

Can you say "slippery slope"?
"You didn't use any resources to save my .........." can be couched several ways.

The slippery slope part comes in later; after this crisis is over.
A patient with x% chance of survival form [insert disease] won't get treated because it takes resources (read: costs more money) than treating a patient with x+1% chance of survival.

There's no slippery slope. Triaging has been in place for mass traffic accidents for decades. It is only for situations where manpower/material means are limited. As per setting precedent, there's a solution but it involves making healthcare a right instead of a privilege...

Source: personally know first responders who had to make tough decisions.

---------- Post added 03-26-20 at 01:02 AM ----------

I think I'll drop out of this thread for a while, so much pessimism. I'll check back in a few weeks and either :
1) Let you know I was wrong.
2) Tell you all "I told you so"
3) I won't check back at all, I caught it and died.

My country of birth has suffered, as of now, more deaths (in a month) than traffic accidents and the flu put together in two years. Do you expect us to clap and sing?

[Digitalis]

this clearly isn't just another flu epidemic.

The Johns Hopkins map of the Worldwide progress of CoViD-19 should make that abundantly clear.

[noelpolar]

Just do what this says...

You Tube

You Tube

not so much this...

You Tube

You Tube

[Benz3ne]

If everyone takes proper social distancing, self-isolation and santiary precautions as advised - if everyone takes their own and other folks' safety seriously and acts accordingly - then there's reason to be hopeful the overall impact on public health and risks to us all can be significantly reduced. If the rate of spread can be retarded, our healthcare systems should be able to cope without maxing out, and once effective treatments and vaccines are identified and/or synthesized, we can start to deal with virus head-on.

Please, take precautions and stay safe. Good luck and good health to you and your family

As much as I wholeheartedly agree, it's unfortunately not quite that simple. The NHS* has the potential to be a vicious cycle, with staff contracting the disease so becoming patients, therefore requiring more staff who may become infected. Similarly, key industries unfortunately can't slow down right now so are in contact with peers in that regard, or public in the case of delivery drivers etc.

*plus the 500k volunteers here in the UK (albeit that's due to strain on the service).

My significant other falls into the former category of NHS, despite being asthmatic (I've suggested she chats to her seniors given she takes a daily pump) and I fall into the latter (chemist for company producing military/survival equipment including, more recently, hand sanitisers).

I'd love for there to be a total 1-month effective lockdown to reduce spread as much as is possible, but my H&S training tells me that it's not 'reasonably practicable' unfortunately.

That's also not to say that I don't socially distance wherever possible. Whether it's taking the dogs for the one walk I'm allowed or keeping my distance from people in work wherever possible. It's the people who flocked to the nearby beaches, town and promenade who get my goat! It's not the summer holidays after all.

[BigMackCam]

As much as I wholeheartedly agree, it's unfortunately not quite that simple. The NHS* has the potential to be a vicious cycle, with staff contracting the disease so becoming patients, therefore requiring more staff who may become infected. Similarly, key industries unfortunately can't slow down right now so are in contact with peers in that regard, or public in the case of delivery drivers etc.

For sure. I didn't intend to over-simplify the approach or under-estimate the challenges. I just wanted to keep pushing that the social distancing, self-isolation and sanitising measures we've all been directed to practise individually (so far as possible) are vital in helping to curb the spread and reduce impact... not simply an over-reaction, as some folks would like to believe.

[Benz3ne]

For sure. I didn't intend to over-simplify the approach or under-estimate the challenges. I just wanted to keep pushing that the social distancing, self-isolation and sanitising measures we've all been directed to practise individually (so far as possible) are vital in helping to curb the spread and reduce impact... not simply an over-reaction, as some folks would like to believe.

In which case, we're absolutely in agreement. I was somewhat sceptical at first like most but for there to be national lockdowns and closing of borders signifies to me that there's more to be concerned about than we were lead to believe initially.

[aslyfox]

. . . Confrontations and difficult personal decisions are occurring as hospital administrators enforce rationing of masks, face shields and other equipment for workers worried about protecting themselves. . . .

The widespread shortage of masks, eye shields and other protective equipment for health-care workers at U.S. medical facilities has become a fact of the pandemic. Nurses and others have complained for weeks, publicly and privately, about the risk of leaving themselves needlessly exposed to a highly contagious respiratory disease. Even with the best of equipment, health-care workers suffer disproportionate losses in outbreaks like this. . . .

Some health-care workers resist orders to work without adequate protection - The Washington Post

worried about protecting themselves and their loved ones

[Rondec]

1) Flu infects fewer people (thanks to vaccines & historical immunities). COVID-19 has no vaccine and no immunity -- more people will get it without social distancing.
2) Flu cases are spread over a long flu-season so it doesn't create a spike in illnesses. COVID-19 is spreading rapidly with new infections doubling every few days.
3) Flu only hospitalizes about 1% of those who get it. COVID-19 hospitalizes about 20% of those who get it.

Overall, flu victims tend only occupy a small fraction of hospital beds at any one time. The COVID-19 victims are likely to grow and grow and grow in number.

The thing about flu is that (a) in general it isn't nearly as virulent as this -- as you say few patients get admitted and of those only around 0.1 % die in an average year and (b) there isn't the amazing onslaught of cases we are seeing here. That is to say that flu season lasts from December to April and so while there are millions of a cases, they are spread over a 4 and 1/2 month period of time.

(I know I repeated what you said, but I thought it bore repeating).

I do think in a couple of weeks we'll know better where things are at. Hopefully the center of the country continues to stay relatively dark on the map, but if nothing is instituted in those states to curb it, there will be plenty of new hot spots popping up in smaller cities, less equipped to deal than larger urban areas. Certainly by the weekend the US will be leading the world in COVID cases diagnosed -- not a position we want to be in.

[beholder3]

It is bad. Its other name is triage. I realize that it has to be done. I spent 14 years in the Air Force. I was a medic. I understand that choices need to be made in a crisis.

The "it has to be done part" only is true for the miserable people on the front lines in a certain situation.

Societies and their politicians who do not want to be guilty have to make sure that these situations are minimized by doing their utmost to provide hospital beds, ventilators etc.

Lots of the things we currently face are absolutely avoidable by fast aggressive actions.

---------- Post added 26th Mar 2020 at 10:57 ----------

Nobody does that.

With limited resources, efforts (mostly) go into the ones that can be saved saved saved.

That's an illusion at best. For every person you try to save you basically are (partially) responsible for another's death. You do not know if the old guy would die if you help him. You throw away a life based on probabilities and cost/benefit.

[aslyfox]

triage happens in any ED at any hospital under the right circumstances -

I took my young son into the ED upon his reporting to us a huge pain in his " stomach " and had a temperature

we sat for a number of hours with all that being done was checks on him while we waited

why - unfortunately shortly after we arrived, multiple patients came in with worse problems heart attacks and multiple car accidents

someone else complained about lack of attention they were getting and I said " in an ED, if I am not getting tons of attention, I take it as a good sign "

[ personally I wasn't happy but I did realize what was happening and why ]

the worse off gathers the attention

BTW, they did get to my son, after we had been there for about 6 hours and he eventually got to surgery before his appendix burst

he had no problems after recovery from surgery