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03-29-2020, 03:24 AM   #991
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it is human nature to " fight or flight "

and those fleeing from danger is a time honored tradition

as to the future

the best I can tell the odds are slanted to survival

unless you, like me, fall within the danger groups and even then survival still exist for some

disappointing, yes I would love to be able to swallow a pill and forget about this but I know this takes time to develop

I still remember lining up and receiving a " special " sugar cube in the gym at my elementary school but

how long Dr. Salk and others worked on the vaccine for poliomyelitis - polio - I cannot say

years and years for sure

QuoteQuote:
1953
March 26
Dr. Jonas Salk announces polio vaccine
Dr. Jonas Salk announces polio vaccine - HISTORY


Last edited by aslyfox; 03-29-2020 at 03:34 AM.
03-29-2020, 03:31 AM   #992
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QuoteOriginally posted by timb64 Quote
1% of those infected rather than 1% of the total population?There’s a vast difference and the reason it’s so important to keep a lid on the spread of it.
I think if the death rate is 3 percent of those infected, that will be a win. Current US death rate is close to 2 percent and we are very early in the game. There are a lot of people out there with the illness who could get a lot worse over the next week and enter the "statistics" category. I'm guessing fifty percent of the population gets it with a 3 percent death rate.

As medical resources get tighter, I expect mortality rates to climb in hot spot areas. Where the hot spots are is going to be constantly moving as well. Just because Virginia only has 700 cases right now, doesn't mean that we won't have 10,000 in a couple of weeks.

Of course I may be pessimistic, but at a minimum I expect there to be a doubling of new cases every three days for the next two weeks. That means 2 million cases before things hopefully start to level off.

---------- Post added 03-29-20 at 06:33 AM ----------

QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
it is human nature to " fight or flight "

and those fleeing from danger is a time honored tradition

as to the future

the best I can tell the odds are slanted to survival

unless you, like me, fall within the danger groups and even then survival still exist for some

disappointing, yes I would love to be able to swallow a pill and forget about this but I know this takes time

I still remember lining up and receiving a " special " sugar cube in the gym at my elementary school but

how long Dr. Salk and others worked on the vaccine for polio I cannot say

years and years for sure



Dr. Jonas Salk announces polio vaccine - HISTORY
Fleeing is not the issue. It is the rigor with which those fleeing then abide by isolation afterward. Spreading disease to new areas is more than problematic and rural Maine or Connecticut probably can't handle COVID any better than New York can.
03-29-2020, 03:38 AM   #993
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QuoteOriginally posted by Rondec Quote
. . . Fleeing is not the issue. It is the rigor with which those fleeing then abide by isolation afterward. Spreading disease to new areas is more than problematic and rural Maine or Connecticut probably can't handle COVID any better than New York can.
neither can other areas of the States - Kansas - or the world without the medical facilities to offer aid

I agree

death rates will rise, not because of a change in the risk of death from the infection itself but because treatment will become, at best, hampered, at worse unavailable

I hope time is our ally but until that proves to be true there will be an increasing " price " to pay

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-29-2020 at 03:57 AM.
03-29-2020, 03:54 AM   #994
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as of Friday:

QuoteQuote:
The number of infected Kansans surged above 200 on Friday, a jump of more than 20% from the day before, and the state recorded its fourth death. At least 202 have tested positive, and the virus now has reached more than 30 counties. . . .

[ Lee Norman, secretary of the Kansas Department of Health and Environment ] said Kansas also is seeing a rise in reported influenza cases at a time when they should be tapering off. Those are probably unconfirmed coronavirus victims, he said.

With more confirmed COVID-19 cases, Norman said his office has been able to fine-tune projection models. He now thinks the crisis will peak with about 1,000 infections in mid-to-late April.

At the peak, Norman said, hospitals in the most populous areas will be short by about 35 critical care beds. If that forecast is accurate, the health care system could absorb the need without having to take over the VA hospitals or commandeer a hotel.

“On balance, I’m feeling a little bit relaxed about the comfort we’re getting around the numbers and the ability to accommodate what’s coming down the pike,” Norman said.

Additionally, the state lab in Topeka is adding equipment that will allow it to handle more than 700 tests per day, starting sometime next week. The state is working with PerkinElmer to manufacture DNA extraction samples that will give the state the capacity to perform 65,000 tests. Another company, Cepheid, recently received approval to distribute tests that provide results within 45 minutes.

By ramping up testing capacity, health officials can get a better snapshot of who does and doesn’t have the virus in communities across Kansas. Some people who have the virus may not have any symptoms but still transmit it to others.

Data from increased testing will help guide state officials in their decisions about easing restrictions, such as the stay-at-home orders.By ramping up testing capacity, health officials can get a better snapshot of who does and doesn’t have the virus in communities across Kansas. Some people who have the virus may not have any symptoms but still transmit it to others.

“It’s a delicate balance,” Norman said. “How invasive are we versus how much do we allow life, commerce, child care, etc., to go on. It would be almost easier to be draconian about it from the very start, but that’s not necessarily the best thing for maintaining the fabric of society, either. So we always kind of have a measured response.” . . .
Kansas coronavirus update: KDHE expects crisis to peak in mid-April; logs more than 200 cases, 4th death - News - The Topeka Capital-Journal - Topeka, KS

03-29-2020, 04:07 AM - 1 Like   #995
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I am listing to many podcasts during working hours and one thing I notice is many podcasts form the US often say something like; A mask does not help the general public. or Only sick people should wear a mask, if you not sick you don't have to ware. Don't buy a mask because doctors and nurses need them. etc. I am 100% agree with the last one but not the first. At lase it preventing you from touching your face with hands when you go out. I ware mask when go out all the time right now. Don't rely on other people to cover their face with a mask, they might not even know they are sick.

Anyway if you want to make a mask video below show how to make one. Consider adding some kind of filter between the fabrics using (clean) vacuum cleaner bag too. Make a socket for the filter so you can watch the mask then put a new filter in it for next use.

03-29-2020, 04:20 AM   #996
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thanks for the link

but I am not sure what percentage of American households even own any type of sewing machine

as far as the advice on masks as far as a reminder not to touch your face, I might I recommend a large bandana covering the face ?

it will provide some, but not total protection, and the feel of it on the face should be a constant reminder of what not to do

if you maintain " social distance " that also might help

Last edited by aslyfox; 03-29-2020 at 04:34 AM.
03-29-2020, 04:36 AM - 9 Likes   #997
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Everyone should just stop showering and wear the same clothes every day. Then social distancing will be much easier to maintain. If you're close enough to smell 'em, you're close enough to get infected.

03-29-2020, 04:45 AM - 5 Likes   #998
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QuoteOriginally posted by Dartmoor Dave Quote
Everyone should just stop showering and wear the same clothes every day. Then social distancing will be much easier to maintain. If you're close enough to smell 'em, you're close enough to get infected.
Some of the folks in my region have a head start with that...
03-29-2020, 04:49 AM   #999
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QuoteOriginally posted by Dartmoor Dave Quote
Everyone should just stop showering and wear the same clothes every day. Then social distancing will be much easier to maintain. If you're close enough to smell 'em, you're close enough to get infected.
QuoteOriginally posted by BigMackCam Quote
Some of the folks in my region have a head start with that...


just kidding

really I am just kidding
03-29-2020, 06:07 AM   #1000
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QuoteOriginally posted by aslyfox Quote
thanks for the link

but I am not sure what percentage of American households even own any type of sewing machine

as far as the advice on masks as far as a reminder not to touch your face, I might I recommend a large bandana covering the face ?

it will provide some, but not total protection, and the feel of it on the face should be a constant reminder of what not to do

if you maintain " social distance " that also might help
Actually 50% of the protection is just the other way around: If you cough or sneeze, it goes into the mask/bandana/whatever. That alone is worth it.
A guy in a shopping queue recently didnt want to cough on his wife. He swirled around to cough behind him. The moron did not have the brains to consider to cough into his elbow and also did not have the brains to expect that behind him other people might stand.

I am happy I bought some masks 2 years ago as protection for the fine dust when sandpapering/grinding down old color from furniture. That dust is not very healthy for the lungs either.
03-29-2020, 06:26 AM   #1001
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QuoteOriginally posted by beholder3 Quote
Actually 50% of the protection is just the other way around: If you cough or sneeze, it goes into the mask/bandana/whatever. That alone is worth it.
A guy in a shopping queue recently didnt want to cough on his wife. He swirled around to cough behind him. The moron did not have the brains to consider to cough into his elbow and also did not have the brains to expect that behind him other people might stand.

I am happy I bought some masks 2 years ago as protection for the fine dust when sandpapering/grinding down old color from furniture. That dust is not very healthy for the lungs either.
yes

I agree masks protect others from the wearer of the mask

but that isn't how I understood the intent of the post by tokyoscape that I responded too
03-29-2020, 06:36 AM - 5 Likes   #1002
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QuoteOriginally posted by Dartmoor Dave Quote
Everyone should just stop showering and wear the same clothes every day.
So business as usual...?
03-29-2020, 06:43 AM   #1003
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QuoteOriginally posted by sbh Quote
Just looked at the China Hubei data. They had peak active cases after 4-5 weeks. At that point recoveries were 15% of cumulated cases. I don't know the population of Hubei.
That 4-5 week peak is based on drastic containment with strong leadership guidance and controlled execution.

Western countries' leaders failed this. Our weak current "strong measures" probably will extend the timeframe by x2 or x3 over the 4-5 weeks. And that only unless some weaklings open the floodgates in the middle of the storm.


That country of 50 million is already at 3x world trade center attack losses and no end in sight. Spain is at 2x the terror attack victims today.


And Italy has a better health system than Nigeria, UK, US and most other nations combined with a better than average health level of the population.
03-29-2020, 06:45 AM   #1004
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A link to the corona virus tracker is now part of my morning routine, right after the news and a check of my email.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 683,583 Cases and 32,144 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

It doesn't look like the U.S will be relinquishing the top spot anytime soon. Not that it's a competition.
03-29-2020, 06:56 AM - 5 Likes   #1005
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QuoteOriginally posted by normhead Quote
A link to the corona virus tracker is now part of my morning routine, right after the news and a check of my email.
Coronavirus Update (Live): 683,583 Cases and 32,144 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

It doesn't look like the U.S will be relinquishing the top spot anytime soon. Not that it's a competition.
Indeed!

And given that the COVID-19 World Championships has scoring like the game of golf, I'd say that some countries are now 1,000s over par and stuck in a sand trap of their own making.
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