Originally posted by timb64 1% of those infected rather than 1% of the total population?There’s a vast difference and the reason it’s so important to keep a lid on the spread of it.
I think if the death rate is 3 percent of those infected, that will be a win. Current US death rate is close to 2 percent and we are very early in the game. There are a lot of people out there with the illness who could get a lot worse over the next week and enter the "statistics" category. I'm guessing fifty percent of the population gets it with a 3 percent death rate.
As medical resources get tighter, I expect mortality rates to climb in hot spot areas. Where the hot spots are is going to be constantly moving as well. Just because Virginia only has 700 cases right now, doesn't mean that we won't have 10,000 in a couple of weeks.
Of course I may be pessimistic, but at a minimum I expect there to be a doubling of new cases every three days for the next two weeks. That means 2 million cases before things hopefully start to level off.
---------- Post added 03-29-20 at 06:33 AM ----------
Originally posted by aslyfox it is human nature to " fight or flight "
and those fleeing from danger is a time honored tradition
as to the future
the best I can tell the odds are slanted to survival
unless you, like me, fall within the danger groups and even then survival still exist for some
disappointing, yes I would love to be able to swallow a pill and forget about this but I know this takes time
I still remember lining up and receiving a " special " sugar cube in the gym at my elementary school but
how long Dr. Salk and others worked on the vaccine for polio I cannot say
years and years for sure
Dr. Jonas Salk announces polio vaccine - HISTORY Fleeing is not the issue. It is the rigor with which those fleeing then abide by isolation afterward. Spreading disease to new areas is more than problematic and rural Maine or Connecticut probably can't handle COVID any better than New York can.