[Racer X 69]

This works verbally better than in writing but:
Ex is a has-been
spurt is a drip under pressure.

I had just got out of bed when I made that post. Created it while sitting on my Throne, also creating (multitasking) my daily donation to the gubmint, and the cobwebs were still clouding my slowly awakening self

There was a nagging feeling that I was missing something but I just couldn't put my finger on it.


So, yes, that's it!

[aslyfox]

A slight correction: in science, "theory" is a comprehensive set of knowledge that is as close to the "truth" as we can get.

In this case, "water boils at 100 ºC" is a hypothesis, that can be tested and proven or disproved.

yes I did try to make it too simple

but since theories are challenged and changed

Einstein vs. Newton

theories about dinosaurs

not sure I can accept " theories " as " truth "

but then I am easily confused

[Serkevan]

yes I did try to make it too simple

but since theories are challenged and changed

Einstein vs. Newton

theories about dinosaurs

not sure I can accept " theories " as " truth "

but then I am easily confused

Challenging theories is one of the bases of science; dogmatism is best left to religion or, ideally, entirely outside. However, I have yet to find someone capable of disproving the theory of gravity .

[Rondec]

The tests are reliable for only one thing. A positive tests tells that a person has it, or has been exposed.

A negative test result is meaningless -
Monday 10:00a.m. a person gets tested.
Monday 10:30a.m. he gets exposed on his way back home.
Tuesday the test results show negative.

Hence the reason that you should isolate yourself socially.

As I read and watch news reports every day, the one thing that stands out in all of this is that nobody knows a darn thing about this virus. The experts throw around big words and impressive sounding explanations about RNA, DNA, and things none of us understand. Everything seems to change daily. First it was spread by close contact. Then by nearby contact (less than 6 feet). A few suggest it is now airborne. Nobody really knows.

It is now thought that many get this virus and show no symptoms but spread it. Others get mild cold like symptoms and some get very, very sick and need intensive care. Nobody knows the reason why for that, either. Age and physical condition are factors but a lot of older people get a mild case and there are younger , healthy people dying. Every theory of this disease and treatments are based on statistics. Most medical treatments are based on statistics. They know the survival rates of cancer patients only by statistics. 80% of people respond to a certain chemo drug. Add radiation to that and iit's 90%. Add surgery and it's up to 98%. We went through all this when my wife battled breast cancer a few years back. An honest doctor will be up front and tell you that's all the have and they have no way of determining whether you are in the survivor group or the other.

As much of this is frustrating, the ONLY thing right now that can stop this is for people not to catch it. This isn't a movie or TV show where some genius researcher is going to pull a cure out of his ass. We are seeing how limited our technology really is. It's nothing more than a bunch or flashy toys and gadgets. If by chance a cure is found today, it's already too late for this epidemic. Known drugs that seem to help are being denied as treatment as different authorities, who know nothing, argue about whether they will be effective. Since most medical treatment is based on statistics anyhow, whether or not they are helpful will never be known

I think the whole point is that science can do a lot -- the virus has been sequenced and existing antiviral agents can be tried. Coming up with novel (new) treatments and vaccines takes quite a bit of time. Not necessarily to come up with them, but to test them to see if they are safe and effective.

[aslyfox]

Challenging theories is one of the bases of science; dogmatism is best left to religion or, ideally, entirely outside. However, I have yet to find someone capable of disproving the theory of gravity .

not a believer in levitation then

You Tube

You Tube

You Tube

You Tube

not moi either

[aslyfox]

some stolen thoughts

. . . There has to be a better way for us all to be outside. It’s my great hope that everyone who enjoys the respite of the outdoors will commit to new norms, to make it possible for everyone to stay six feet away from one another.

Let’s start with the low-hanging fruit: eliminating all the bad habits we never should have had in the first place. No walking in the middle of the sidewalk. No strolling with your face glued to your phone. No spitting!

Additionally, do whatever it takes to stay six feet away from people on the sidewalk. Most of us are used to walking on the sidewalk in a straight line, occasionally moving a few inches left or right to accommodate a passing runner or a kid on a scooter. Now, when we prepare to pass someone, we need to be moving feet, not inches, away. That requires more drastic measures: getting off the sidewalk entirely to walk on the grass or in the street (assuming traffic isn’t heavy), crossing to the other side of the street, sometimes even stopping and turning around to walk in the opposite direction.

And when walking in a group (only people in your household, please!), be ready to shift to single file quickly. It’s lovely that this moment of schools and offices being closed allows us to spend more time with the people we live with — including going on walks together. But our habits for walking in groups need to change. It’s impossible to stay six feet away from a group walking side by side on a sidewalk or even a broader walking path. The only way to stay safe is for the group to walk in single file when someone is approaching.

Don’t ride your bike on the sidewalk. This is an often-ignored law in many cities, but at this moment it becomes essential to follow. There is simply no way to stay six feet away from a cyclist sharing a sidewalk — bikes take up a lot more space than pedestrians, runners or even people on scooters. Cyclists must ride in bike lanes, or stay on wider paths.

Consider doing your outdoor time in the early morning or late evening. That argument during my run was an eye-opener for me: I could keep running during peak hours, at the risk of my own sanity and civility. Or I could set my alarm earlier and run before dawn, when most neighbors are still asleep. I chose the latter. It is painful to lose the extra sleep, but the relaxed, uncrowded run is worth it.

We’re all in this together. I used to think of myself as a runner, annoyed at reckless bikers, or a pedestrian, enraged by crazy drivers. But in this moment, we have to stop dividing ourselves based on our preferred transit mode and instead remember that we’re all people who want to hold onto precious time outdoors.

Runners, before you dart out into the street to avoid a coming pedestrian, check to make sure there are no bikers nearby. Drivers, if you see a pedestrian crossing in the middle of the street, resist the urge to honk and yell — just tap the brakes and remember that in a few hours, you might be that pedestrian, trying to get some fresh air before returning to your home-turned-office-turned-school.

A lot of these changes will feel strange and even awkward. We go outside to lose ourselves in the moment, and it’s hard to always be on alert. If we usually nod and wave to other runners, it may feel rude to run to the other side of the street to avoid them. But if we want to avoid spreading illness while we enjoy the outdoors, we have to live with some discomfort and social weirdness.

Eleanor Barkhorn (@eleanorbarkhorn) is a staff editor in Opinion.

Opinion | Rules for Using the Sidewalk During the Coronavirus - The New York Times

[photoptimist]

yes I did try to make it too simple

but since theories are challenged and changed

Einstein vs. Newton

theories about dinosaurs

not sure I can accept " theories " as " truth "

but then I am easily confused

The challenge and change you speak of is actually evidence of the success of science.

Science never can prove that a theory is true, it can only falsify the alternatives to that theory. No matter how much evidence we collect that supports a theory, we never know if the next chunk of evidence might up-end that theory. And we never know if someone might find a better theory that explains more that the current, accepted theories.

Thus, there are three types of theories in science:

1) Probably false: Old theories that have been disproven through some set(s) of evidence and experiment.

2) May be true: Current theories that have not yet been disproven and have survived various attempts to falsify them.

3) Untested: New theories waiting the wings for evidence that they explain something better than the current theories.

Given a choice between believing a falsehood and knowing that we truly don't know the 100% truth about something, it seems better to know we don't know then to confidently repeat the same mistakes over and over again.

[swanlefitte]

Here is a perspective on guidelines based off vitamin C. if we all answer the question what should our daily intake be, we will all answer different. Every country has a different amount. Do you recommend for the mean or the extreme, the minimum or maximum. In the 90's when i studied nutrition, US was based on pregnant women 100mg Canada was mean 70mg, that has changed. What hasn't changed is the recommendation is wrong for you most of the time. But unlike Linus Pauling, 2000mg is at the dangerous level which is 2 glasses of Emergen-C

[MarkJerling]

That's pretty good... Better than I would have expected, frankly. So with a decent roll or two of good quality shop towel, you could be set for a while with masks that offer at least some protection in both directions for long enough to shop for groceries etc.

Now, let's wait and see how quickly the price of shop towel increases...

EDIT: Question... Is there anything in the composition of shop towel that would be unhealthy to breathe in? Chemicals, fibres, etc.?

Probably no worse than anything else. Presuming it's clean and dry cotton / poly-cotton blend.

[aslyfox]

we can hope for the best:

The F.D.A. chief raises the possibility that plasma from recovered coronavirus patients might protect the healthy.

. . . the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration pointed to another potential preventative treatment that he said could serve as a “bridge.”

The commissioner, Dr. Stephen M. Hahn, said that researchers are looking into whether a manufactured version of plasma from people who have already been infected with the virus could be administered preventatively.

Researchers are already studying whether using plasma from those who have recovered — so-called convalescent plasma, which contains antibodies needed to ward off the virus — could be used to treat people who are suffering from the disease. It is being used on an experimental basis by doctors around the country.

. . . Dr. Hahn said that if convalescent plasma proved safe and effective, it could be pooled from many patients and manufactured into an injection called hyperimmune globulin, which could be given to people to prevent getting infected.

“We have to study it and we’re doing this quickly, but also as a prophylactic,” Dr. Hahn told the host, Maria Bartiromo. “And that acts as a bridge to get us to a vaccine.”

On Friday, the F.D.A. approved a clinical trial that will allow Johns Hopkins researchers to test whether convalescent plasma would be effective in treating people who are at high risk of being exposed to the virus, such as health care workers and other front-line responders.

Coronavirus Live Updates: Top U.S. Officials Warn of ?Our Pearl Harbor?; Deaths in Country May Be Undercounted - The New York Times

[MarkJerling]

I fail to understand how some people apparently do not seem to understand data or its limitations

what am I missing ?



I'm just " a poor simple country lawyer " but if my opponent used this " data " against me in court to prove how poorly my " client " was adhering to "rules and regulations "

All I would need to do to blow their argument out of court is to read the above to totally discredit the argument



from the comments I have been reading I am confused

are parts of " Country X " acting " foolishly "

I won't disagree with that statement but I cannot use this data to prove it

another thought



this is part of the data, it gives no information as to the " density " of those areas

are we talking about thousands of people in a small area or smaller numbers of people in a large area and those people maintaining social distance from each other ?

can that be told from the data ?

It's not a court of law Allen. What the (available) data shows is that a lot of people are still out going about their normal business.

As of now, the USA are looking at 9,441 deaths out of 331,151 positive tests. You only have to look at the infection graph curve to see that, in the USA, infections are far from peaking. So, that means that, looking at the (available) data that many more will become infected and many more will die.

Now, should you compare the USA with the infection graphs of many other countries then you'll see that the rate of infection is particularly steep in the USA. Problem is, the USA is a very big place with a very large population. So, that will equate to many deaths in your jurisdiction if it turns out that people are not isolating themselves as the data seems to show.

Now, it could be that the infection rates data is skewed by the amount of testing being done. Different countries are not testing at the same rates:


So, why is the infection rate in the USA so steep, if not from lack of self-isolation?

[aslyfox]

. . . So, why is the infection rate in the USA so steep, if not from lack of self-isolation?

I'm no expert

but do these factors play a part ?

better testing in other parts of the world

when did the infections start in the US vs other places in the world ?

and the density of certain parts of the US vs. density of others NYC in particular

and yes we have stupid people here who put the chase for the almighty $ over public health - Spring Break, Mardi Gras and others

the issue of leadership

and one more thought population of the US vs other parts of the world

isolation has occurred and is ongoing

[Parallax]

Question... Is there anything in the composition of shop towel that would be unhealthy to breathe in? Chemicals, fibres, etc.?

I can't think that it would be any more hazardous than walking down any given sidewalk in Southern California.

[Parallax]

the issue of leadership

........ or lack thereof.

[Sandy Hancock]

I have been watching the numbers out of the USA for some time, and they are extremely worrying.

Case numbers aren't very helpful, as they are very dependent on testing rates. The death toll, however, has been rising at the same exponential rate for at least four weeks - going up an order of magnitude roughly every 10-11 days. If that continues, we're talking nearly 1,000,000 deaths in three weeks.

The societal effects of such a calamity might be worse than the disease itself. I sincerely hope the lockdown, albeit late, is now being taken seriously.