[Serkevan]

P.S. 3,400 deaths per million infections assumes the hospitals have the capacity to treat everyone who has a serious (but not fatal) case of COVID-19. If we let the number of active cases overwhelm the healthcare system, the death rate can easily go up by a factor of 2 to 4. That's why the "worst case" scenarios put the US death toll in the millions because there was no way the hospitals could handle tens of millions of patients which is what would happen without "flatten the curve" efforts that the US has taken.

Not to mention the death rate increase of other illnesses or accidents, which would skyrocket in two steps: first if the hospital ICUs get saturated with COVID patients, and second (and it's even scarier to think about this one) if the lack of PPE and prolonged exposure to overwhelming viral loads causes the healthcare workers to die or get sick to the point where hospitals operate with skeleton crews.

[beholder3]

Watch how many people don’t stay in their cars.....

Actually none left their 🚘. I am surprised, but thats what it is.

[bertwert]

Out of curiosity, I compared total number of cases as a percentage of population for several countries (but take this with a grain of salt, as not all testing and reporting is equal...)

Canada .055%
US .143%
UK .099%
Italy .238%
Spain .335%
France .177%
Germany .144%

[Zooland]

And we typically give flu the freedom to spread throughout the population rather than take any steps to limit it. Thus, we allow the flu infect about 25-50 million Americans each year.

How many people would COVID-19 kill if we let it infect 25-50 million Americans? So far, it's killed 34,000 people per million infections. Even if you assume that the undertesting of Americans means there's 9 untested COVID-19 cases for every tested one, that's still a fatality rate of 3400 deaths per million infections* or 85,000 to 170,000 deaths. BTW, if we allowed COVID-19 to spread without countermeasures (either the current lock-downs or Asian-style test-and-trace), COVID-19 would infect a lot more than 25-50 million people because, unlike the flu, there's no vaccine and no one is immune from previous exposure to this virus. It would inevitably spread to about 200 million Americans (and cause 680,000 deaths) before herd immunity effects cause the infection to exhaust itself.

So, yes, COVID-19 is at least 10X the flu without social distancing measures.

*Note: 3,400 deaths per million infections estimate is in line with the estimated 3,700 deaths/million infections found in a careful German study that tested 80% of a town's population for both ongoing or previous COVID-19 infection.

P.S. 3,400 deaths per million infections assumes the hospitals have the capacity to treat everyone who has a serious (but not fatal) case of COVID-19. If we let the number of active cases overwhelm the healthcare system, the death rate can easily go up by a factor of 2 to 4. That's why the "worst case" scenarios put the US death toll in the millions because there was no way the hospitals could handle tens of millions of patients which is what would happen without "flatten the curve" efforts that the US has taken.

Don’t forget that the flu has a vaccine, unlike the new virus.

---

Last edited by Sandy Hancock; 04-11-2020 at 06:09 AM. Reason: Quote edited

[photoptimist]

[Serkevan]

Out of curiosity, I compared total number of cases as a percentage of population for several countries (but take this with a grain of salt, as not all testing and reporting is equal...)

Canada .055%
US .143%
UK .099%
Italy .238%
Spain .335%
France .177%
Germany .144%

Yes, but positive rate per country is wildly different; Spain is at about 40% (cases/tests performed is 0.4), while Germany is at 9% and the US is in the middle at 20%. Assuming the tests have the same reliability, it's an indication of "who" is getting tested -> the higher % means that serious cases are the only ones getting tested; Spain also shows huge hospitalization and mortality rates, which either means we are all wimps or asymptomatic/mild cases are not being counted. One could thus, assuming the virus is similarly virulent in both countries, that the "hidden" cases are lower in Germany than in the US, and much lower than in Spain or France*. The statistics will anyway have to wait if we want precision.

*Anecdotal evidence: a friend of ours in Paris caught COVID (all the symptoms, down to the loss of taste/smell), but since she (or her coworkers) "didn't have high enough fever", they were told not to even go to the hospital unless absolutely needed. Tests were denied to all of them, so there's a half dozen of "hidden" cases.


PS: it feels substantially worse than the flu, I'm told. Definitely not a recommended experience.

[bertwert]

Yes, but positive rate per country is wildly different; Spain is at about 40% (cases/tests performed is 0.4), while Germany is at 9% and the US is in the middle at 20%. Assuming the tests have the same reliability, it's an indication of "who" is getting tested -> the higher % means that serious cases are the only ones getting tested; Spain also shows huge hospitalization and mortality rates, which either means we are all wimps or asymptomatic/mild cases are not being counted. One could thus, assuming the virus is similarly virulent in both countries, that the "hidden" cases are lower in Germany than in the US, and much lower than in Spain or France*. The statistics will anyway have to wait if we want precision.

Oh, of course. My numbers really mean nothing, but I'm bored here so I need to do something to pass the time...

*Anecdotal evidence: a friend of ours in Paris caught COVID (all the symptoms, down to the loss of taste/smell), but since she (or her coworkers) "didn't have high enough fever", they were told not to even go to the hospital unless absolutely needed. Tests were denied to all of them, so there's a half dozen of "hidden" cases.

Unfortunately, we're never going to have exact numbers, as if one is not experiencing trouble breathing, it makes sense to keep them at home and limit exposure to others by going to the hospital.

PS: it feels substantially worse than the flu, I'm told. Definitely not a recommended experience.

I'm trying my best not to experience it...

[beholder3]

is this normal flu season activity in the USA?

Aerial video shows mass grave on New York City's Hart Island amid coronavirus surge | Global | The Guardian

Cheery footage...

[Serkevan]

is this normal flu season activity in the USA?

Aerial video shows mass grave on New York City's Hart Island amid coronavirus surge | Global | The Guardian

Cheery footage...

From the article, they went from 25 to 125 burials a week. And that's the unclaimed ones only... ugh.

[Racer X 69]

Isn't there a social distancing and self-isolation order in place where you are, Racer? I thought you were in WA

What's open and closed | Washington State Coronavirus Response

Fuel for the tractors is essential.

There were a number of items on my shopping list that I need that are essential. Amazon has pretty much put everything on the “non essential” list except facemasks and ventilators, so I can’t get what I need delivered.

Bumping into an old friend and deciding to hook up probably didn’t fall within the suggested social distancing thing. But it gave me a chance to wash my front feet, 30 miles from home.

And we took proper precautions while chatting and having a few beers.

[Wheatfield]

Oh, of course. My numbers really mean nothing, but I'm bored here so I need to do something to pass the time...

What we will miss is mortality numbers, which are being severely under reported. No one is testing dead bodies. If you weren't tested and confirmed to have the disease when you were breathing, it's unlikely you will be tested after you have shuffled off.

Unfortunately, we're never going to have exact numbers, as if one is not experiencing trouble breathing, it makes sense to keep them at home and limit exposure to others by going to the hospital.



I'm trying my best not to experience it...

[beholder3]

Seems like people have to pay the price for sluggish non-leadership of their governments.
It's not only the US:

The UK seems to have had more deaths per day than Italy aver had.
Coronavirus UK live: hospital death toll reaches 8,958, a record daily rise of 980 | World news | The Guardian

That's a rural town completely killed on a single day.

---------- Post added 10th Apr 2020 at 20:00 ----------

What we will miss is mortality numbers, which are being severely under reported. No one is testing dead bodies. If you weren't tested and confirmed to have the disease when you were breathing, it's unlikely you will be tested after you have shuffled off.

Not only that. For how long have the deaths of people with pneumonia in January, February and beginning of March simply been attributed to "flu"?
Due to the inability to provide tests, people died and you just put them in the "caused by flu" bucket.

[Wheatfield]

Seems like people have to pay the price for sluggish non-leadership of their governments.
It's not only the US:

The UK seems to have had more deaths per day than Italy aver had.
Coronavirus UK live: hospital death toll reaches 8,958, a record daily rise of 980 | World news | The Guardian

That's a rural town completely killed on a single day.

---------- Post added 10th Apr 2020 at 20:00 ----------



Not only that. For how long have the deaths of people with pneumonia in January, February and beginning of March simply been attributed to "flu"?
Due to the inability to provide tests, people died and you just put them in the "caused by flu" bucket.

If the number of deaths attributed to the flu take a big spike this year, it's a safe bet that the spike is covid-19.

[Serkevan]

I've been saying for a while that the only way we will accurately see this will be to take the yearly gross mortality and attribute all the increase over last years' average (or weighted average) to the coronavirus, so that we properly consider the deaths caused by lack-of-care (system overloaded with patients like in Lombardy) or other conditions that were aggravated and not counted.

Point in case: Italy saw a scary increase in deaths, out of which about 30-50% was attributable to Covid... do we assume everyone else up and died? Or is this thing more dangerous than the raw numbers say?

[bertwert]

I've been saying for a while that the only way we will accurately see this will be to take the yearly gross mortality and attribute all the increase over last years' average (or weighted average) to the coronavirus, so that we properly consider the deaths caused by lack-of-care (system overloaded with patients like in Lombardy) or other conditions that were aggravated and not counted.

That is a valid point. The virus is causing deaths not directly related to it at all, due to cancelled treatments and overloading of the system.