[beholder3]

There is an article in German: Wer führt im Wettlauf zum Corona-Impfstoff? which states that currently 115 (!) vaccine candidate substances are being tested.

[Fogel70]

This disease is all about spreading by contacts. The US has a +50% higher population density than Sweden. Japan has x10 the US population density btw.

Yes, and it is why it is mainy high populated cities that are affected. (that have international contacts through airports).

And the population density difference between Sweden and US do not say much as there are so much unpopulated areas in both countries. Sweden just have more unpopulated percentage of the country.
But it is probably a larger part of the Swedish population that live in highly poplulated cities, than US population.

[Rondec]

Yes, and it is why it is mainy high populated cities that are affected. (that have international contacts through airports).

And the population density difference between Sweden and US do not say much as there are so much unpopulated areas in both countries. Sweden just have more unpopulated percentage of the country.
But it is probably a larger part of the Swedish population that live in highly poplulated cities, than US population.

There is a reason why COVID-19 has gone nuts in the US northeast and has pretty much petered out in Idaho and Montana. Population density really does make a big difference.

At the same time, South Korea was able to contain this and they have a very high population density. I will say that it doesn't feel like Sweden is testing quite enough people. I mentioned earlier that the gold standard for rigorous testing is 10:1 ratio of total tests to positive tests and much of the world is more like 5:1 or 6:1.

[Serkevan]

There is a reason why COVID-19 has gone nuts in the US northeast and has pretty much petered out in Idaho and Montana. Population density really does make a big difference.

At the same time, South Korea was able to contain this and they have a very high population density. I will say that it doesn't feel like Sweden is testing quite enough people. I mentioned earlier that the gold standard for rigorous testing is 10:1 ratio of total tests to positive tests and much of the world is more like 5:1 or 6:1.

For reference only (agreed on all counts with your post): South Korea actually has a massive 60:1 test/positive ratio (according to Worldometer); they implemented a massive test-and-trace strategy early on which paid off. Sweden has about the same test/population ratio as S.Korea but their test/positive ratio is about 5:1.

The number that baffles me the most is India; 600K tests for less than 30K positives (!), in a country that is jam-packed with people. One could argue that at 600K tests in a country of 1300 million the quality of the data is between zero and nothing, but still...

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Last edited by Sandy Hancock; 04-27-2020 at 03:12 PM. Reason: inadvertent smilies fixed :p

[beholder3]

I find it more than underwhelming that in the year 2020 in rich countries we all seem unable to do the following rocket science: counting. Counting tests, counting cases, counting deaths.

What will the Marsians think of us when they look at earth via their telescopes? "What a bunch of incompetent critter."

[Fogel70]

There is a reason why COVID-19 has gone nuts in the US northeast and has pretty much petered out in Idaho and Montana. Population density really does make a big difference.

Average population density per country does not really matter unless the population is spread evenly over to whole country. The local population density where people live does matter, but also the number of contacts from abroad.
Which is why areas close to international airports has suffered worst

At the same time, South Korea was able to contain this and they have a very high population density. I will say that it doesn't feel like Sweden is testing quite enough people. I mentioned earlier that the gold standard for rigorous testing is 10:1 ratio of total tests to positive tests and much of the world is more like 5:1 or 6:1.

South Korea was quick to act which is the main reason for their success. So they where able to contain the spread without having to do a huge number of tests.

Once the virus start to spread wide it is difficult to perform enought test to control the spread. To be able to perform enough tests then you first need to increase the capacity of testing, which takes time, or invent new testing that are not limited by the labs. Here is one exple of a cheap and quick test that are not limited by lab equipment. It looks to have the potential of a DIY test.
New diagnostic test for COVID-19 may deliver results within half an hour | Karolinska Institutet Nyheter

[gaweidert]

I was in Yellowstone with another member of the forum and I interfered with a potential photo he was planning

we were in different vehicles, I was in front as we approached the tourists ahead, they were taking cell phone photos of a small herd of bison between their vehicle and the lake. the bison were about 10 feet from the lake and 15 feet from the tourists. One of the tourists started to walk backwards toward a cow with a calf. I stopped, screamed " don't " and got the individual to stop and walk back to the road

I didn't understand that the other forum member was preparing to capture the " launch " of the tourist as she approached the mother and her calf

I ruined the opportunity

my bad

Yes I was a bit upset until you reminded me that as former Boy Scouts we would have had to render first aid and wait for a long time until the EMT's could arrive to take over. This would have taken up up a pretty good chunk of photo time that day. Great forethought on your part.


But then again the person in the air photo may have paid off handsomely. Driving to that same spot last year with my wife we found that road under construction, heavily rutted and muddy where they were working. Think of some of the worst roads you experienced in Africa on your safari. Felt really sorry for the guy in the Corvette trying to navigate his way through.


Buried in the first photo is the hand of our intrepid Mr. Aslyfox cradling his camera and lens as he takes a photo. The second shot is a rather mundane shot some of the bison referred to above. This after Mr. Aslyfox shooed the tourist away. Metal pole detracts even further. Think how much a flying tourist with arms and legs splayed out would have added to the shot.


BTW, That bison whose body was in the Yellowstone River at La Hardy rapids was reduced to skeleton and scattered along 70 meters of the river. Probably totally gone by now.

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[Serkevan]

I find it more than underwhelming that in the year 2020 in rich countries we all seem unable to do the following rocket science: counting. Counting tests, counting cases, counting deaths.

What will the Marsians think of us when they look at earth via their telescopes? "What a bunch of incompetent critter."

My professor for Analysis of Chemical Processes (first year subject) told us in our first class something I still remember quite often: "Engineering is not complicated. It's in fact just one thing: knowing how to do additions. The problem is that it's not only very easy to be blind as to what it is that you have to add together, it's difficult to measure just how much you are talking about".

[photoptimist]

You cannot really compare two countries as they are different.

But there are also similarities between US and Sweden. The mayor outbreak is in the largest city/state in the countries. New York and Stockholm, where New York has been hit much harder (higher per million death rate) than Stockholm, but Stockolm has 15% of the Swedish population where New York has 6% of the US population. So the lower per million death rate in Stockholm has a higher effect on per-capita death rate in Sweden. The effect on rural population in both US and Sweden is very low, but they may be hit harder later during the pandemic.

Sweden has not seen the same massunemployment as US yet, but as a small country it can not do much about the effect of the coronavirus recession to come.

Yes, it is hard to compare countries with all the variations in population density, household demographics, population age structure, population comorbidities, social predilections for (non)compliance, etc. For example the mobility data suggest that Sweden has a fairly high rate of voluntary social distancing although not at the level of their Scandinavian neighbors who have tighter regulations. And yet people are looking at how other countries are handling this and wondering what approaches can minimize both deaths and economic losses.

However, it's especially hard to judge countries's strategies when this whole pandemic is still in the early innings. The vast majority of the world's population is still susceptible to COVID-19 which means most places could see 10X to 40X the deaths of their current numbers if they fail to control the ongoing rate of infection.

P.S. Sweden hasn't seen high unemployment because the government has a program in which the company keeps the worker on the payroll part-time while the government pays 75% of the missing salary to worker. It's part of a multi-facetted and ongoing program of economic support for the economy (Sweden - Measures in response to COVID-19 - KPMG Global).

[aslyfox]

. . . . This after Mr. Aslyfox shooed the tourist away. Metal pole detracts even further. Think how much a flying tourist with arms and legs splayed out would have added to the shot. . . .

you could try photoshop I guess

just kidding, I know you like to capture " real life "

[Rondec]

For reference only (agreed on all counts with your post): South Korea actually has a massive 60:1 testositive ratio (according to Worldometer); they implemented a massive test-and-trace strategy early on which paid off. Sweden has about the same testopulation ratio as S.Korea but their testositive ratio is about 5:1.

The number that baffles me the most is India; 600K tests for less than 30K positives (!), in a country that is jam-packed with people. One could argue that at 600K tests in a country of 1300 million the quality of the data is between zero and nothing, but still...

The question probably has to do with who is being tested. My guess is that most of the unwashed masses aren't getting testing.

The other possibility of course is that there is just a low prevalence of the disease in India at this point.

[sbh]

Actively aiming at "herd immunity" for a plague which currently kills 5% of infected patients (in the US according to official stats) - even if it is "only" 1,25% for real due to the screwed up testing there that means the person deciding this herd immunity approach deliberately is going to aim at the death of about 4 million citizens of a single country (the USA account for a mere 4% of the world population).

"herd immunity" is a slogan synonymous to "let it kill them".

Choosing 4,000,000 innocent people to die in your local country.

Compare this to:

620,000 dead in US civil war
400,000 dead Americans in WW II.
114,000 dead Americans in WW I.
60,000 dead Americans in Vietnam.
18,000 US murders per year.
3,000 dead in world trade center.

So you recommend wanting an approach that is 3x more gruesome than the 4 biggest wars in your history combined?

*Sigh.*

What would be a better approach?
(Honest question, I actually don't know. There is a German saying that goes like: "You chan choose between cholera and the plague." What I know is that there is no way out without some kind of damage.)

[aslyfox]

imagine a still pond, no grasses, weeds, no obstructions from below, a common bottom and equal depth

and then a vertical impact in the exact middle

what happens

ripples/waves uniformly form and radiate out equally [ at least in my imagination ]

that is not what happened to this virus

imagine that it isn't a clear pond, there are obstructions, above and below the surface, the depth is not uniformed nor is the bottom the same and then the vertical impact in the exact middle

what do you get: less uniformity in the ripple/wave

the point that I am inadequately trying to make is that it is very hard to predict what this virus may or may not do to us here, or there, by what we observe it doing elsewhere

of course, that is why I don't get paid the big bucks or am given the big sharpie

[Serkevan]

What would be a better approach?
(Honest question, I actually don't know. There is a German saying that goes like: "You chan choose between cholera and the plague." What I know is that there is no way out without some kind of damage.)

The "economy" is, after all, a construct - something that humanity ultimately has control of with the needed will to act*. As far as I am aware, we cannot turn back death. Thus, it stands to reason that the morally right thing to do is to focus on preserving life while taking actions to keep the economy more or less going in a basic capacity. It's critical to note that the virus hasn't actually destroyed anything but profits, there is no damaged infrastructure, no collapse of natural resources.

Of course, from a logistics point of view it's difficult to turn the highly specialized for-profit production system into a mass relief system, but one could argue that it is possible. If "turning a profit" gets temporarily slashed out of the requirements, things start looking much less bleak. Of course, in this situation that would involve additional pressure on essential workers - which should lead to their proper recognition as key pieces of society instead of disposable cannon fodder.

I certainly have my own ideas on how to go about such things, but I'm afraid the specifics would veer massively into the big nopes of discussion... I will leave it there .

*I have zero illusions of any will existing anywhere, though.

[aslyfox]

" Happy Days are here again "

The White House canceled Monday’s daily briefing with the task force.


The White House canceled the daily coronavirus briefing that it had listed on the schedule for Monday . . .

Kayleigh McEnany, the newly appointed White House press secretary, told reporters that there would be no briefing even though it had been listed on the calendar for 5 p.m. as usual. . . .

Live Coronavirus News and Updates - The New York Times

that makes 3 days in a row of no such " briefings "